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Shazam! OS Thread - 221.5M OS - 357.8M WW

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A $ is a $ no matter where it comes from.

 

Sure, US ancillary market is better than China and all emerging markets, but they make it up with market growth (meaning $100m could do $150 with the sequel without breaking out in a big way).

 

That's why SW being completely irrelevant in Asia and LA is a big worry for the franchise, no matter how huge it is in traditional markets. 

 

Shazam! will still make money, but trying to deny this could change sequel plans (especially given how reactionary DC is) and even the Black Adam movie is ridiculous. 

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7 minutes ago, Omni said:

Explain how a superhero movie opening at 70M in ALL OS markets but China is "very good".  It is not good in absolute terms, it is not good relative to expectations, it is awful considering the incredible strength of the genre. It is decent only when you look at the budget.

At this point, I declare Dumbo a success, too...

What expectations? Shazam has been tracking low ever since they started tracking it. It went from a predicted 40-45M opening to a 53M opening. The studio obviosuly never believed that Shazam would be a major hit, which is why they didn't give Shazam a normal superhero budget.

 

Fans had too great expectation at what Shazam would do. But the trades and WB own estimates have always been low, lower than the actual  it recieved at the box office.

 

WB will be pretty content with a 380-400M gross, which will earn them some tens of million in profit after streaming and home video sales.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Omni said:

Explain how a superhero movie opening at 70M in ALL OS markets but China is "very good".  It is not good in absolute terms, it is not good relative to expectations, it is awful considering the incredible strength of the genre. It is decent only when you look at the budget.

At this point, I declare Dumbo a success, too...

I completely get what you’re saying with respects to the superhero market but we really have no idea what WB’s expectations were overseas. Maybe they knew the movie wouldn’t connect in some markets overseas and expected these results? I really don’t know.

 

There were a few people in the Shazam thread before release that said they didn’t think the movie would connect overseas, so maybe WB knew that? 

Edited by cax16

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Dismissing the second most important movie market in the world just because the movie flops there...wow

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5 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

A $ is a $ no matter where it comes from.

 

Sure, US ancillary market is better than China and all emerging markets, but they make it up with market growth (meaning $100m could do $150 with the sequel without breaking out in a big way).

 

That's why SW being completely irrelevant in Asia and LA is a big worry for the franchise, no matter how huge it is in traditional markets. 

 

Shazam! will still make money, but trying to deny this could change sequel plans (especially given how reactionary DC is) and even the Black Adam movie is ridiculous. 

I mean changing what a Shazam sequel would do in Asia is pretty simple; Add much more action in the sequel so it becomes a normal superhero film there. If that is something Shazam should do or not is another question all together. After all Shazam catered to American tastes and earned an A in cinemascore, so to change that liked formula just to please Asia may be right from a box office perspective, but still questionable.

 

Of course its important to grow in Asia but for smaller scale movies like Shazam the domestic box office will be much more important. Even if it earned the max it could do in Asia Shazam would never be a hit there, its in the US that Shazam had potential to be a well revieved movie.

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2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Dismissing the second most important movie market in the world just because the movie flops there...wow

I am not dismissing China at all. The fact is just that Shazam would never have been a hit in China, the style and humor of the movie was not made to cater to Chinese tastes. Shazam would never be an Aquaman in China.

 

Everyone has remarked about Shazam being a distinctly American catering movie, with much less appeal overseas. Which means that the makers of Shazam obviously had their major focus on the domestic market when they made Shazam. Every million more earned from China would then be more a bonus.

 

China will get more of what they want from DC when Aquaman 2 is released. The chinese taste in movies is so specific that the likes of Rampage are seen as much better than Star Wars there. Its a very different market with very different taste in movies. 

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https://deadline.com/2019/04/shazam-opening-weekend-china-global-international-box-office-1202589047/

 

The Zachary Levi-starrer ranked as the No. 1 Hollywood pic in 60 out of its 79 debuts. It was the top film in the European region where it’s tracking on par with Ant-Man (it missed No. 1s in Italy and Spain where Dumbo held). Shazam! was also tops in Asia (outside China) coming in 12% above Guardians Of The Galaxy, and was No. 1 in Latin America at 11% above Ant-Man.

 

 

China ($30.9M/15,700 screens): Landed No. 2 behind local pic P Storm and surpassed GOTG by 15%. Mexico ($6.2M/3,195): With nearly a 50% share of the Top 5, the opening is above GOTG by 33% and Ant-Man by 40%. UK ($5.3M/602): No. 1 and on par with AM. Russia ($5.2M/3,072): A 51% share of the Top 5 brought Shazam! in 27% above AM and 50% over Wonder Woman.

 

Brazil ($5.1M/1,509): A 53% share of the Top 5 landed Shazam! 53% over AM and 60% above GOTG. Indonesia ($4.1M/971): No. 1 at 28% over AM and 75% over GOTG in the increasingly strong market. Korea ($3.9M/1,148): A softish frame in the market saw Shazam! lead all play, but not top the aforementioned comps. Australia ($3.4M/507): Also a No. 1 start with 45% across the Top 5.
 
Taiwan grossed $2.7M from 248 and bested AM and Guardians by a large margin; Thailand picked up $2.2M from 520 and nabbed 80% of the market, tracking 5% over AM; and Malaysia at $2M from 632 came in on par with GOTG.

 

Landing in No. 2 positions were France ($2.8M/566), Italy ($2M/487) and Spain($1.7M/441). Germany ($1.4M/1,033) gave Shazam! the best placement for a Hollywood film — the market is led by French smash Qu’est-ce Qu’On A Encore Fait Au Bon Dieu?!

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4 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I am not dismissing China at all. The fact is just that Shazam would never have been a hit in China, the style and humor of the movie was not made to cater to Chinese tastes. Shazam would never be an Aquaman in China.

 

Everyone has remarked about Shazam being a distinctly American catering movie, with much less appeal overseas. Which means that the makers of Shazam obviously had their major focus on the domestic market when they made Shazam. Every million more earned from China would then be more a bonus.

 

China will get more of what they want from DC when Aquaman 2 is released. The chinese taste in movies is so specific that the likes of Rampage are seen as much better than Star Wars there. Its a very different market with very different taste in movies. 

You sound super ignorant and really don’t have a clue about China’s tastes at all. Take the next few months and follow the China general box office thread and you’ll see just how diverse China’s taste can be. Just cause they didn’t respond to Shazam doesn’t mean they don’t enjoy quality movies. 

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If a movie flops "its China, doesnt matter, studios only get 25%"

If a movie is a hit "chinese people have bad taste"

 

Seriously, why do you people keep shitting over China?

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44 minutes ago, Omni said:

Explain how a superhero movie opening at 70M in ALL OS markets but China is "very good".  It is not good in absolute terms, it is not good relative to expectations, it is awful considering the incredible strength of the genre. It is decent only when you look at the budget.

At this point, I declare Dumbo a success, too...

OW OS bigger than budget is merely "decent" now? Only if you focus on other superhero movies and literally nothing else.

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16 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I mean changing what a Shazam sequel would do in Asia is pretty simple; Add much more action in the sequel so it becomes a normal superhero film there. If that is something Shazam should do or not is another question all together. After all Shazam catered to American tastes and earned an A in cinemascore, so to change that liked formula just to please Asia may be right from a box office perspective, but still questionable.

 

Of course its important to grow in Asia but for smaller scale movies like Shazam the domestic box office will be much more important. Even if it earned the max it could do in Asia Shazam would never be a hit there, its in the US that Shazam had potential to be a well revieved movie.

Adding action scenes means increasing the budget, for a sequel that might or might not increase in Asia is a very risky move that studios might not want to take (after so many movies have bombed after trying to cater to the Asian market).

 

If you also take into account that Europe isn't that into SH movies, LA hasn't done great like the genre usually does and that domestic is under $200m (unless it develops some great legs against Endgame) their best option is to keep the budget low. Bank on <200m DOM and keep losing OS audience is not a good scenario for future movies.

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1 hour ago, Omni said:

Explain how a superhero movie opening at 70M in ALL OS markets but China is "very good".  It is not good in absolute terms, it is not good relative to expectations, it is awful considering the incredible strength of the genre. It is decent only when you look at the budget.

At this point, I declare Dumbo a success, too...

You are being way too honest, so you are going to be labeled a troll and whatever. 

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I do think it's decent/good and legs in the next weeks will probably be good so if it does $135m - $150m DOM that would be great. 

 

My guess would be for the rest of it's run

 

DOM $145m (2.7 multi) would give it a better one but I do think EG will kill almost any late legs it could have.

China: $30.9m => 43m total (1.4 multi)

 

OS-China $71.1m => I would take 73m because actuals probably go up.

So $73m with a 2.6 multi (because china's not in it) => $190m OS

 

Would give it a total of $378m WW

Another $10m - $15m from japan so make it $390m WW If the budget is $82m and the marketing bud is around the same it would have a cost of $165m.

 

$145m * 0.55 => 79.75m

$43m * 0.25 => 10.75m 

$202m (with japan) * 0.40 => 80.8m 

 

Total revenue (cinema release only) => $171.3m so a profit of $6.3m from a theater run only.

Now you have other revenue from toys, tv, streaming, dvd/blue etc..

 

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1 hour ago, Welfin said:

Flop or not?

It easily passed its budget in its first weekend... 

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The numbers are good for this kind of movie with this kind of budget.

 

It might make 450 million worldwide. If it's lucky, it could get 500 million worldwide. Domestic performance is gonna be the focus this time, because it's where the movie is performing better. 

 

So, unless this movie got a 200/250 million budget, I think it'll make a profit. It was a good decision keeping a smaller budget this time ( 100 million or 90 million or 80 million, whatever it is ).  It's a smaller movie with a lower scale regarding action. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, PenguinHyphy said:

You are being way too honest, so you are going to be labeled a troll and whatever. 

Was Ant-Man a flop to you. If you take out the 106 million it made there its sitting on 413 million with a larger budget and marketing than Shazam ever had. Face it Shazam is already on 2 times its budget in Opening week. That is fantastic for any movie and is already a hit 4 days into its opening. If you actually think this is bad either you do not know anything about Boxoffice or yeah you are rightfully labeled as a troll.

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2 hours ago, Brinatico said:

 

Some facts 

Seems like alot of cherry picking to me

Why not just stick with one comp? It's obviously not going to gross as much as GOTG did OS

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Omni said:

Explain how a superhero movie opening at 70M in ALL OS markets but China is "very good".  It is not good in absolute terms, it is not good relative to expectations, it is awful considering the incredible strength of the genre. It is decent only when you look at the budget.

At this point, I declare Dumbo a success, too...

Dumbo = $170m budget
Shazam = $85m Budget.

Dumbo is a live action adaptation from Disney , which also comes from several recent big hits (Beauty and Beast, Jungle book, Maleficent , Cinderella), and Dumbo is certainly a more well-known character abroad than Shazam.

Edited by Lucasmessi12

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3 hours ago, Jormungard said:

If a movie flops "its China, doesnt matter, studios only get 25%"

If a movie is a hit "chinese people have bad taste"

 

Seriously, why do you people keep shitting over China?

Everyone knows that Lordnox is a troll account,  do not take it seriously.

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