Shazam! OS Thread - 221.5M OS - 357.8M WW

[TimmyRiggins]

If they can crack Asia on the sequel, without compromising the tone and vibe of it of course. 

[mulderfox]

26 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Overall

Last weekend (OW) - 102.3

This weekend - 35.9

Drop - 64.9%

 

China

Last  weekend - 30.58

This weekend - 4.78

Drop - 84.37%

 

Without China

last weekend - 71.72

this weekend - 31.12

drop - 56.6%

 

I know that the numbers make it seem like a harsh drop but that China drop is making it look way worse than it actually is. For comparison Captain Marvel fell 61.88% with China and 57.21% without China on its 2nd weekend. So Shazam had a slightly better OS-Ch drop. Of course Captain Marvel had a huge rush to see it plus it is much harder to hold better with much higher numbers. But regardless outside of China and South Korea the drop for Shazam is normal.

 

Captain Marvel is heading for around 700m OS which would be about 2.31 multi from its opening OS weekend. Same legs as that would give Shazam an OS of 235. Assuming around 150m domestic would lead to a final total of 385m Worldwide. But Shazam will have to face Endgame the week after where it could drop upto 60-70%. 

 

Overall I see around 230m OS (including Japan) for a final. 

 

Very good breakdown @ZeeSoh yeah its doing good minus China.

[PenguinHyphy]

That is not a good drop, and the only market where it has to open is an Asian market, where it is performing the worst. 

[NamakFiskKa]

3 hours ago, cax16 said:

200-210m overseas total?maybe a bit more cause of Japan? Someone who is smarter then me and more familiar with the markets can be more clear I’m sure. 

Rampage numbers

[Fake]

On 4/12/2019 at 6:24 AM, Fake said:

So 200M before the weekend begins. Will need to show good holds from here in order to reach 400M. 25M DOM + 40M OS is the minimum required to stay on track.

OS fell short by 10%... which makes it almost impossible for it to reach $400M.

 

Looks like it will finish with 145-150M DOM and 220-230M OS.

 

Will be at 315M or so after next weekend.

Edited April 14, 2019 by Fake

[MaxAggressor]

From DHD:

 

China leads all play on the Zachary Levi-starrer which tumbled 84% there this weekend to gross $40.4M thus far. Outside the Middle Kingdom, Shazam! is the top movie in the Asia region.

 

It’s also leading the European and Latin American regions with No. 1 holds in 17 Euro markets and tracking on par with Ant-Man in Lat Am.

[stephanos13]

I think all of us (or most of us) had unrealistic expectations from Shazam. Shazam was a great superhero movie but the fact that the character is not well known or known at all it's a factor. And the biggest reason for the low box office compared to other superhero films it's the fact that the movie came out between Captain Marvel and Endgame! The sequel will make more money for sure.

[JimiQ]

11 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

I think all of us (or most of us) had unrealistic expectations from Shazam. Shazam was a great superhero movie but the fact that the character is not well known or known at all it's a factor. And the biggest reason for the low box office compared to other superhero films it's the fact that the movie came out between Captain Marvel and Endgame! The sequel will make more money for sure.

Exactly. I expected something like AMatW numbers if it breaks out and AntMan numbers if it is "so-so". But I guess it's better this way - at least DC/WB won't announce 2 sequels and 4 spin-offs right away

[MaxAggressor]

0.2m up from estimates

 

 

[raulbalarezo]

 

 

[RealLyre]

so 320M+ by Sunday before the Endgame madness begins. 

 

will the global total be closer to 350M or 400M?

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[titanic2187]

Easter week does help the film to inch closer to 400m than 350m 

[MaxAggressor]

From DHD:

 

Japan opened this session with $2M on 723 screens at No. 4, but No. 1 for a U.S. movie. The release topped Ant-Man by 9% and is on par with Guardians Of The Galaxy.

 

Brazil in the 3rd frame dropped just 21% to stay No. 1 and gross $11.4M to date. Australia held the No. 1 spot while Mexico dipped to No. 3. The UK took back the No. 1 slot on a very quiet weekend and Spain increased 2% in the 3rd session. Colombia also saw a sizable increase, up 34%.

[a2k]

5 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

OS-China was ~30.6 (from ZeeSoh's breakdown). So 18.3 OS-China this weekend (rest 1.7 from China and 2 from Japan) is a good hold of -40%. Much better than last weekend's OS-China hold of -56%+.

 

5 more Japan, 0.5 more China, 26 more OS-China (after 18.3 weekend) = 31.5 OS to come

Adding a similar amount dom (for 152.5 total) gives

323 + 31.5 + 31.5 = 386 ww (152.5 d + 44 c + 189.5 os-c)

 

152.5 * 0.55 + 44 * 0.25 + 189.5 * 0.40 = 171 theatrical returns on 90-100 prod budget. Great result imo. Can't deny am disappointed at it missing 400-425.

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by a2k

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/14/2019 at 10:24 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Overall

Last weekend (OW) - 102.3

This weekend - 36.1

Drop - 64.7%

 

China

Last  weekend - 30.58

This weekend - 4.78

Drop - 84.37%

 

Without China

last weekend - 71.72

this weekend - 31.32

drop - 56.33%

 

I know that the numbers make it seem like a harsh drop but that China drop is making it look way worse than it actually is. For comparison Captain Marvel fell 61.88% with China and 57.21% without China on its 2nd weekend. So Shazam had a slightly better OS-Ch drop. Of course Captain Marvel had a huge rush to see it plus it is much harder to hold better with much higher numbers. But regardless outside of China and South Korea the drop for Shazam is normal.

 

Captain Marvel is heading for around 700m OS which would be about 2.31 multi from its opening OS weekend. Same legs as that would give Shazam an OS of 235. Assuming around 150m domestic would lead to a final total of 385m Worldwide. But Shazam will have to face Endgame the week after where it could drop upto 60-70%. 

 

Overall I see around 230m OS (including Japan) for a final. 

 

Overall

Last week (8-14 April) - 61.8

This week (15-21 April) - 37.4

Drop - 39.48%

 

China

Last week - 9.69

This week - 3.13

Drop - 67.7%

 

Without China & Japan

Last week - 52.11

This week - 32.27

Drop - 38.07%

 

Good drop OS this week thanks to Easter. I still think it will do the same as the numbers I mentioned last week (230-235m OS, 150-155m dom) for a total of around 380-385m. It could go up or down because we are facing an abnormal situation with Endgame coming up and I have no idea how much that will affect Shazam. 

 

PS: The last section dis-includes Japan because it only released this weekend. 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

More than a 75% drop. Seems like this may not have been the most favorable release date.  

 

Skeptical about catching Spiderverse WW.

Edited April 28, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[pepsa]

We all knew that when EG released it was going to be dead, but -75% is just sad  Hoped it would have hold a bit better, next weekend it doesn't have any extra cometition so it should hold ok.