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Wednesday Numbers | 07/26/2018

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1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Frozen 2 gonna do gangbusters, so is the sequel to that animated film (by the academies definition) Avatar.

Lol it was a joke bud.

 

Frozen 2 is going to do amazing, but 600m DOM isn't a given.

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Theater counts for this weekend:

 

> NEW RELEASES
1 - Mission: Impossible - Fallout Paramount 4,386 - - 1
5 - Teen Titans Go! To The Movies Warner Bros. 3,188 - - 1
31 - Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3 Reliance Big Pictures 41 - - 1
38 - Puzzle Sony Classics 5 - - 1
40 - 93Queen Abramorama 1 - - 1
41 - The Captain Music Box Films 1 - - 1
> EXPANDING
3 6 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Universal 3,514 +197 +5.9% 2
10 9 Unfriended: Dark Web BH Tilt 1,547 +1 +0.1% 2
15 49 Blindspotting Lionsgate/Summit 523 +509 +3,635.7% 2
23 43 Eighth Grade A24 158 +125 +378.8% 3
24 30 A Quiet Place Paramount 158 +50 +46.3% 17
37 64 McQueen Bleecker Street 5 +1 +25.0% 2
> NO CHANGE
4 4 The Equalizer 2 Sony / Columbia 3,388 - - 2
39 70 Woman Walks Ahead A24 3 - - 5
> DECLINING
2 1 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony / Columbia 4,005 -262 -6.1% 3
6 3 Ant-Man and the Wasp Buena Vista 3,013 -765 -20.2% 4
7 2 Skyscraper Universal 2,773 -1,049 -27.4% 3
8 5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal 2,685 -696 -20.6% 6
9 7 Incredibles 2 Buena Vista 2,616 -548 -17.3% 7
11 8 The First Purge Universal 1,400 -931 -39.9% 4
12 12 Sorry to Bother You Annapurna Pictures 802 -248 -23.6% 4
13 10 Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony / Columbia 574 -874 -60.4% 5
14 11 Uncle Drew Lionsgate/Summit 532 -705 -57.0% 5
16 13 Ocean's 8 Warner Bros. 518 -484 -48.3% 8
17 14 Won't You Be My Neighbor? Focus Features 464 -266 -36.4% 8
18 15 Tag Warner Bros. (New Line) 308 -273 -47.0% 7
19 19 Avengers: Infinity War Buena Vista 292 -2 -0.7% 14
20 17 Leave No Trace Bleecker Street 289 -72 -19.9% 5
21 16 Deadpool 2 Fox 267 -106 -28.4% 11
22 21 Solo: A Star Wars Story Buena Vista 165 -43 -20.7% 10
25 20 Book Club Paramount 145 -96 -39.8% 11
26 22 Hereditary A24 127 -74 -36.8% 8
27 27 Rampage (2018) Warner Bros. (New Line) 91 -23 -20.2% 16
28 24 Adrift STX Entertainment 75 -56 -42.7% 9
29 29 Life of the Party  Warner Bros. (New Line) 72 -39 -35.1% 12
30 28 Sanju FIP 44 -68 -60.7% 5
32 26 Whitney Roadside Attractions 39 -78 -66.7% 4
33 37 Boundaries Sony Classics 30 -21 -41.2% 6
34 23 Black Panther Buena Vista 15 -139 -90.3% 24
35 46 The Rider Sony Classics 15 -1 -6.3% 16
36 48 First Reformed A24 10 -5 -33.3% 11
42 71 Chappaquiddick Entertainment Studios 1 -1 -50.0% 17
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8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Performance capture/motion capture is an animation technique.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion_capture

Motion capture does not require much of an animator no ?

 

Anyway under academy rules ? Did it re-change ?

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20110605174517/http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule07.html

 

DEFINITION

An animated feature film is defined as a motion picture with a running time of more than 40 minutes, in which movement and characters’ performances are created using a frame-by-frame technique. Motion capture by itself is not an animation technique. In addition, a significant number of the major characters must be animated, and animation must figure in no less than 75 percent of the picture’s running time.

 

Seem up to date to me:

http://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/91aa_rules.pdf

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Motion capture does not require much of an animator no ?

 

Anyway under academy rules ? Did it re-change ?

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20110605174517/http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule07.html

 

DEFINITION

An animated feature film is defined as a motion picture with a running time of more than 40 minutes, in which movement and characters’ performances are created using a frame-by-frame technique. Motion capture by itself is not an animation technique. In addition, a significant number of the major characters must be animated, and animation must figure in no less than 75 percent of the picture’s running time.

 

Seem up to date to me:

http://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/91aa_rules.pdf

The tails and the ears of Na'vi are animated, the creatures are animated, the flora/trees are animated, the gunships are animated, the floating screens are animated, spaceship is animated.. animation everywhere in Avatar.

 

Find me a scene without animation!

Edited by IronJimbo
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24 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

First one made 50m adjusted for ticket price, this one will not go much over it I have the feeling, bleeding theater like that.

 

First one made 90.2m in 2018 dollar intl, with only Italy/South africa to get a release, not sure this one will reach the 84m unadjusted WW total of first, it made 1.8m intl is last weekend for a 20.17m total, could end up below 31m.

 

Skyscrapper feel like an harsh drop, -1049 theater, Legendary/Universal Pacific Rim lost 1081 theater weekend #3, but that had a -66.7% second weekend giant drop and a PTA that was only 50% of skyscraper the daily coming in the third weekend.

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26 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

R.I.P $700M Black Panther!:whosad:

Black Panther Buena Vista 15 -139 -90.3%

Could get to around 699.965 after this weekend, optimistically? I assume they’ll just get it with a handful of Christopher Robin double features, but watching this has been an absolute delight.      

 

Also AM&tW getting a harsher TC drop than previous July MCUs, 20% vs ~12.5% and ~12.5%. It’s been holding better this week though, so maybe it can snag a bettter PTA drop and match their 40% for a 10M weekend.

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6 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

Unfriended first 6 days...

Fri  - $1,401,070

Sat - $1,224,220

Sun - $1,027,745

Mon - $589,365 

Tues - $741,280

Weds - $523,300 - $5,506,980

Thurs - ?

 

I have it doing about $0.52 Fri,

$0.66 Sat, &

$0.52 Sun.  = 1.70 weekend,

-53.5% from the $3.653 last weekend, and

minus .350k in previews is

-48.5% from last weekend, 

 

It will be at $6,000,000 beginning Friday if it does

$493,020 today, -5.8%.  

 

If it falls harder, maybe it will be at 6.51-6.69 after this weekend,

but this gives it 6.7 after 10 days.  

 

Unfriended's weekdays (Mon-Thurs) looking to be 0.7 of what the weekend was w/o the previews totaling in. 

It did drop -42.7% on Monday.

Another decent set of weekdays making 0.7 of the 1.7 it could make this weekend gives 1.19 &

approx. 6.9 after 2 full weeks + pre-showings.  

 

This is all measuring if upcoming Friday and Sunday gross the same amount as from yesterdays Wednesday # quoted, and if Saturday increases 27%,

0.89 of Tuesday,

0.54 of Saturday

including Saturday matinee % difference from the early horror matinee crowd

that did not expect Unfriended 2 to be a horror movie.  

Edited by dmatrixfilm1715
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Sorry to Bother You has been in 10th place for 6 consecutive days. 

 

The first two sets of weekdays (Mon-Thurs) w/o Thursday (today) 

M         T          W       T       

0.53 + 0.65 + 0.52 + 0.45

0.42 + 0.49 + 0.42 +  ???          If Tuesday makes 0.38, the total is then 12.00 even.

 

Last Friday, it had a 54% decline from the previous Friday.

If it declines 46% this Friday from last Friday, it makes 0.43 on Friday which is up 0.01 from this Wednesday shown chart/above in row 2, column 3.

The same 41% increase it had last weekend, & standard Sunday decline round off to 1.50 upcoming weekend, -48% from last weekends 2.86.

13.50 total then

 

the set of weekdays this week should amount to 0.60 of last weekend total. 

0.60 of 1.50 this weekend is 0.90 plus whatever it had.  +0.90 +13.50 = 14.40

 

Bother is dividing 248 theaters from last/this weeks 1,050 theaters, and will be diving 802 theaters this week.  It should die around 15.1-20 million total domestic depending on how well Bother continues to play w/ matinees 10am-4pm generally, and twilight shows.

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1 hour ago, Moviefanatic said:

Unless Disney pushes it over with Christopher Robin money, then i don’t see BP making 700 million during its original run.

 

Their Oscar push will have to do it next year. What a joke 

I hope putting all their focus on fudging 'Wrinkle' to $100M was worth it for Disney!

Edited by sfran43
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