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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT WEEKEND THREAD | 23 Friday...MM2 4.8...TT 4.25 EQ2 4.0

By That One Girl, in Numbers and Data

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

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https://deadline.com/2018/07/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-fallout-opening-weekend-1202434739/

 

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Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout according to matinee estimates is looking like it could rep a franchise opening record with a $57M-$60M three-day and a Friday that’s between $22M-$25M. Some even think that the Cruise movie has a shot at hitting $63M. Note, 2000’s Mission: Impossible II‘s 3-day of its six-day Memorial Day weekend reps the 22-year old spy series’ opening record with $57.8M. Friday’s number, inclusive of the Tom Cruise Thursday night record of $6M, is already ahead of Mission: Impossible: Rogue Nation‘s $20.3M first day which translated into a $55.5M opening weekend.

 

Warner Bros.’ Teen Titans Go! To the Movies is forecasted to bring in $5.5M today,  $15.5M for the weekend.

 

Last weekend’s holdovers, Universal’s Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again is looking at a second frame of $16M, -54% for a 10-day of $71.4M while Sony’s Equalizer 2 is looking at $13M, -64% for a 10-day of $63.2M. As we mentioned prior, Mamma Mia 2 truly rallied after Equalizer 2‘s surprise weekend win and beat the Denzel Washington movie for the week, $55.4M to $50.2M.

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2018/07/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-fallout-opening-weekend-1202434739/

 

 

C'mon TTG - come up with another $4.5M...

 

It's too bad Moviepass went under this weekend...TTG (and MI6) seemed to be perfect candidates for it...and I wonder what 3M folks are now gonna do about movies, having paid for their sub, but not be able to use it.  Will we see less movie going for the next few weeks until their "paid" month expires?  Folks are always leery "double paying" and I wonder if we'll see some small effect of that (the slightly lower-than-expected across the board Thursday numbers seem to be an indicator of the effect)...

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CoolioD1 Global Phenomenon

CoolioD1

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29 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Joaquin Phoenix has become the best actor working since PSH passed. Isaac was following him closely in 2013-15 but these past few years there's no contest. These streaks never last as long as we want, so in a couple of years someone else will probably take his place, but as the best actor of the decade he's secure I think. (Actress I guess is Amy Adams?)

No Stanley tucci is the best working actor.

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

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It’s also set a China date for August 31

I thought I was being smart leaving this off my China-related summer game predictions but it's probably gonna open so big it'll make top 5 anyway. Damn. Shoulda left off Ant-Man instead. 

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

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4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

The IM for MI:6 seems off to me (naturally from Deadline). Rogue Nation, Jason Bourne, Star Trek, and Dunkirk all had 20+% Saturday increases. $25M should be enough for at least $66M for the weekend.

 

Yeah their top end is messed up. 57 could happen if it ends 22 for the day, but on the high end, should be able to do 65m +

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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MI5 had a 20.6% Sat bump from true Friday and 20.8% Sunday drop.

 

With 19 true Friday/25 OD can optimistically see

6.0

19.0

22.6 (+19%)

18.1 (-20%)

= 65.7 (10.95x the previews)

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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For those watching legs, I'm thinking we'll see some unusually "worse than expected" Friday numbers for holdovers, to go along with the "worse than expected" Thursday numbers as Moviepass subscribers fully understand that their passes are likely worthless now.  I don't think the AMC plan has gotten enough traction yet to counteract the sheer volume of MP, even when MP went to surge pricing...

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

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7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

C'mon TTG - come up with another $4.5M...

 

It's too bad Moviepass went under this weekend...TTG (and MI6) seemed to be perfect candidates for it...and I wonder what 3M folks are now gonna do about movies, having paid for their sub, but not be able to use it.  Will we see less movie going for the next few weeks until their "paid" month expires?  Folks are always leery "double paying" and I wonder if we'll see some small effect of that (the slightly lower-than-expected across the board Thursday numbers seem to be an indicator of the effect)...

Well it's near the end of the month isn't it?  And the sub was  $9.99  - about the price of one ticket.  I sincerely doubt Mamma Mia 2's audience had a significant cross over with MP's clientele and it was hit as hard as EQ2..

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Well it's near the end of the month isn't it?  And the sub was  $9.99  - about the price of one ticket.  I sincerely doubt Mamma Mia 2's audience had a significant cross over with MP's clientele and it was hit as hard as EQ2..

 

See, I disagree - I think musicals made out under MoviePass (A Greatest Showman was one of their "most watched" movies when they reported that a few months ago)...

 

And if you look at Thursday, it was a bloodbath on everything, with family movies least hit, since families couldn't use MP...but then, there's a new family movie opening, so they will get hit by the competition, if not the pass:)...

 

And pricing/payment is by the day when you signed up...and many are yearly, so they are paid in for awhile...

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

See, I disagree - I think musicals made out under MoviePass (A Greatest Showman was one of their "most watched" movies when they reported that a few months ago)...

 

And if you look at Thursday, it was a bloodbath on everything, with family movies least hit, since families couldn't use MP...but then, there's a new family movie opening, so they will get hit by the competition, if not the pass:)...

 

And pricing/payment is by the day when you signed up...and many are yearly, so they are paid in for awhile...

Two movies opened on probably 10-12k+ screens for about $80m+ in tickets and there were thousands of screens last night devoted to previews.

 

TGS had a  younger demo. 

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

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2 minutes ago, Alli said:

there's no spinning it. these are not good numbers.

 

the reviews on letterboxd are glowing, but i guess the franchise truly has a ceiling it can't pass.

A movie hitting a franchise high...isn't good. Sure, that makes sense.

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