MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT WEEKEND THREAD | 23 Friday...MM2 4.8...TT 4.25 EQ2 4.0

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, That One Guy said:

It's opening in 4,380 theaters, there's no way it falls below 60M.

You say this, but Nutty by Nature almost fell below a 2k PTA in over 4,000 theaters last year. I don't think the TC means this has to go over 60, but we'll see

[John Marston]

that seems pretty good. At least 60m is likely happen. Zero reason this would be a preview frontloaded movie

Edited July 27, 2018 by John Marston

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

If it follows Rogue Nation:

 

25.5M (5.1x previews)

24.8M (-3%)

19.6M (-21%)

69.9M Weekend

 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

But in order for one to pencil in 25 Fri + 25 Sat + 20 Sun, it is actually going to have to uphold a 20 million Friday, and then raise it 5 million on Saturday.  

 

500 tickets/venue at average ticket price

 

(500)(4,386)($9.16 avg ticket price) = $20,870,880.  I think it is too soon to tell if 500 tickets running avg. can happen at each place.  

[Jonwo]

This isn't the Teen Titans Go! To the Movies Weekend Thread?!

 

I think $60-65m should happen, surely McQuarrie will allowed to do MI7 especially as 2021 is the 25th anniversary of the franchise.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

You say this, but Nutty by Nature almost fell below a 2k PTA in over 4,000 theaters last year. I don't think the TC means this has to go over 60, but we'll see

 

Rogue Nation had a $14,000 PTA.  If we give this a $13,500 PTA, it gets it to just under 60M.  I highly doubt this'll go below the mark.

[Eric Atreides]

If that preview sticks, following Jason Bourne:

 

26.7M Friday (including previews)

24.6M Saturday

18.7M Sunday

70M OW

 

Following War for the Apes:

22M Friday (including previews)

19.2M Saturday

14.8M Sunday

56M OW

 

🤔

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I think you're using the F word incorrectly.  More like fucking masterpiece and one of the best action movies I've ever seen.

I had fun.

 

But I'm more of a sci fi nerd.

 

So my top action movies look like this

..

 

1) The Matrix

2) Predator

3) Robocop

4) T2

5) Edge of Tomorrow

6) V for Vendetta

7) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

8.) Equilibrium

9) Blade/Kill Bill/Hanna

10) Dredd/Sin City

 

These movies changed how I saw cinema and or the world.

 

MI6 is extremely slick and fun. Not a gamechanger in my book.

 

 

 

[Godzilla]

There’s definently a ceiling to this franchise. $65M would be a terrific opening. 

[vc2002]

Good to see a franchise started from the 90's (yes it's based on a much earlier TV series, but the movie started 90's) is still going strong 20+ years later.

 

I can't think of another pre-2000 one-key-character franchise (the same actor leading in all movies) that is still going strong. Maybe Rocky.

Edited July 27, 2018 by vc2002

[ACSlater]

Just got back. Such a fun movie. 

[The Dark Rock]

7 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

There’s definently a ceiling to this franchise. $65M would be a terrific opening. 

 

That seems to be the case. With this kind of insane reviews Bond or Furious series would have been in talks of $150-200m OW.

[John Marston]

13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

If that preview sticks, following Jason Bourne:

 

26.7M Friday (including previews)

24.6M Saturday

18.7M Sunday

70M OW

 

Following War for the Apes:

22M Friday (including previews)

19.2M Saturday

14.8M Sunday

56M OW

 

🤔

 

 

zero reason for it to follow a Sci fi franchise like Apes. Why even consider it?

[dxmatrixdt]

Theater counts for this weekend:

 

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Paramount	4,386	-	-	1
5	-	Teen Titans Go! To The Movies	Warner Bros.	3,188	-	-	1
31	-	Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3	Reliance Big Pictures	41	-	-	1
38	-	Puzzle	Sony Classics	5	-	-	1
40	-	93Queen	Abramorama	1	-	-	1
41	-	The Captain	Music Box Films	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
3	6	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again	Universal	3,514	+197	+5.9%	2
10	9	Unfriended: Dark Web	BH Tilt	1,547	+1	+0.1%	2
15	49	Blindspotting	Lionsgate/Summit	523	+509	+3,635.7%	2
23	43	Eighth Grade	A24	158	+125	+378.8%	3
24	30	A Quiet Place	Paramount	158	+50	+46.3%	17
37	64	McQueen	Bleecker Street	5	+1	+25.0%	2
> NO CHANGE
4	4	The Equalizer 2	Sony / Columbia	3,388	-	-	2
39	70	Woman Walks Ahead	A24	3	-	-	5
> DECLINING
2	1	Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation	Sony / Columbia	4,005	-262	-6.1%	3
6	3	Ant-Man and the Wasp	Buena Vista	3,013	-765	-20.2%	4
7	2	Skyscraper	Universal	2,773	-1,049	-27.4%	3
8	5	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Universal	2,685	-696	-20.6%	6
9	7	Incredibles 2	Buena Vista	2,616	-548	-17.3%	7
11	8	The First Purge	Universal	1,400	-931	-39.9%	4
12	12	Sorry to Bother You	Annapurna Pictures	802	-248	-23.6%	4
13	10	Sicario: Day of the Soldado	Sony / Columbia	574	-874	-60.4%	5
14	11	Uncle Drew	Lionsgate/Summit	532	-705	-57.0%	5
16	13	Ocean's 8	Warner Bros.	518	-484	-48.3%	8
17	14	Won't You Be My Neighbor?	Focus Features	464	-266	-36.4%	8
18	15	Tag	Warner Bros. (New Line)	308	-273	-47.0%	7
19	19	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	292	-2	-0.7%	14
20	17	Leave No Trace	Bleecker Street	289	-72	-19.9%	5
21	16	Deadpool 2	Fox	267	-106	-28.4%	11
22	21	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Buena Vista	165	-43	-20.7%	10
25	20	Book Club	Paramount	145	-96	-39.8%	11
26	22	Hereditary	A24	127	-74	-36.8%	8
27	27	Rampage (2018)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	91	-23	-20.2%	16
28	24	Adrift	STX Entertainment	75	-56	-42.7%	9
29	29	Life of the Party	Warner Bros. (New Line)	72	-39	-35.1%	12
30	28	Sanju	FIP	44	-68	-60.7%	5
32	26	Whitney	Roadside Attractions	39	-78	-66.7%	4
33	37	Boundaries	Sony Classics	30	-21	-41.2%	6
34	23	Black Panther	Buena Vista	15	-139	-90.3%	24
35	46	The Rider	Sony Classics	15	-1	-6.3%	16
36	48	First Reformed	A24	10	-5	-33.3%	11
42	71	Chappaquiddick	Entertainment Studios	1	-1	-50.0%	17

Theater counts for this weekend:

 

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Paramount	4,386	-	-	1
5	-	Teen Titans Go! To The Movies	Warner Bros.	3,188	-	-	1
31	-	Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3	Reliance Big Pictures	41	-	-	1
38	-	Puzzle	Sony Classics	5	-	-	1
40	-	93Queen	Abramorama	1	-	-	1
41	-	The Captain	Music Box Films	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
3	6	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again	Universal	3,514	+197	+5.9%	2
10	9	Unfriended: Dark Web	BH Tilt	1,547	+1	+0.1%	2
15	49	Blindspotting	Lionsgate/Summit	523	+509	+3,635.7%	2
23	43	Eighth Grade	A24	158	+125	+378.8%	3
24	30	A Quiet Place	Paramount	158	+50	+46.3%	17
37	64	McQueen	Bleecker Street	5	+1	+25.0%	2
> NO CHANGE
4	4	The Equalizer 2	Sony / Columbia	3,388	-	-	2
39	70	Woman Walks Ahead	A24	3	-	-	5
> DECLINING
2	1	Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation	Sony / Columbia	4,005	-262	-6.1%	3
6	3	Ant-Man and the Wasp	Buena Vista	3,013	-765	-20.2%	4
7	2	Skyscraper	Universal	2,773	-1,049	-27.4%	3
8	5	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Universal	2,685	-696	-20.6%	6
9	7	Incredibles 2	Buena Vista	2,616	-548	-17.3%	7
11	8	The First Purge	Universal	1,400	-931	-39.9%	4
12	12	Sorry to Bother You	Annapurna Pictures	802	-248	-23.6%	4
13	10	Sicario: Day of the Soldado	Sony / Columbia	574	-874	-60.4%	5
14	11	Uncle Drew	Lionsgate/Summit	532	-705	-57.0%	5
16	13	Ocean's 8	Warner Bros.	518	-484	-48.3%	8
17	14	Won't You Be My Neighbor?	Focus Features	464	-266	-36.4%	8
18	15	Tag	Warner Bros. (New Line)	308	-273	-47.0%	7
19	19	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	292	-2	-0.7%	14
20	17	Leave No Trace	Bleecker Street	289	-72	-19.9%	5
21	16	Deadpool 2	Fox	267	-106	-28.4%	11
22	21	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Buena Vista	165	-43	-20.7%	10
25	20	Book Club	Paramount	145	-96	-39.8%	11
26	22	Hereditary	A24	127	-74	-36.8%	8
27	27	Rampage (2018)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	91	-23	-20.2%	16
28	24	Adrift	STX Entertainment	75	-56	-42.7%	9
29	29	Life of the Party	Warner Bros. (New Line)	72	-39	-35.1%	12
30	28	Sanju	FIP	44	-68	-60.7%	5
32	26	Whitney	Roadside Attractions	39	-78	-66.7%	4
33	37	Boundaries	Sony Classics	30	-21	-41.2%	6
34	23	Black Panther	Buena Vista	15	-139	-90.3%	24
35	46	The Rider	Sony Classics	15	-1	-6.3%	16
36	48	First Reformed	A24	10	-5	-33.3%	11
42	71	Chappaquiddick	Entertainment Studios	1	-1	-50.0%	17

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Well that preview # is unsurprising, wouldn't expect anything lower than 5m. This franchise lives on walk-ups and WOM (and that at least should be excellent), we'll see how big that'll get the OW. The preview to OW multi should be high for a franchise film.

 

PLFs sold really well tonight around me, didn't do a ton outside of those from my vantage point. However with the long run-time, the 2nd set of shows started real late. Hoping for 60m+. If it got close to 70m, that would be fantastic.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jayhawk

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

Good to see a franchise started from the 90's (yes it's based on a much earlier TV series, but the movie started 90's) is still going strong 20+ years later.

 

I can't think of another pre-2000 one-key-character franchise (the same actor leading in all movies) that is still going strong. Maybe Rocky.

So many launched in the early 2000s, that it would not surprise me if it is the only one.

 

If Smith would return to Bad Boys / MIB, I guess he could still make it happen.

 

With the help of Cameron, Arnold with Terminator maybe and Ford with Indiana Jones would be an other one not surprising if it would still be strong, but like Die Hard I am not sure we can say it is still going strong, Rocky stopped being the lead by now.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Is the 250 million budget info real?

 

I mean, movie will need to have a insane domestic performance. Rogue Nation stopped with 195 million domestic. This one will really need overseas grosses to help.

 

Add in marketing / promotion ( movie has been promoted like crazy ) and the whole thing could be 350-400 million. 

 

Movie seems great, can't wait for it. Perhaps 3D will boost its domestic numbers. 

[dxmatrixdt]

predictions

 

1,547 - Unfriended 2 - $1,099 (-48.5%) - 1.70 - 6.70

 

802 - Bother - $1,870 (-31.4%) - 1.50 - 13.50

 

464 - Neighbor - $1,832 (-1.6%) - 0.85 - 20.20

 

518 - Ocean's - $1,538 (-4%) - 0.80 - 137.50

 

574 - Sicario 2 - $1,242 (-4.5%) - 0.713 - 48.79

 

532 - Uncle Drew - $1,197 (-1.7%) - 0.637 - 41.56

 

308 - Tag - $1,195 (-0%) - 0.368 - 53.66

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

19 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Is the 250 million budget info real?

 

I mean, movie will need to have a insane domestic performance. Rogue Nation stopped with 195 million domestic. This one will really need overseas grosses to help.

 

Add in marketing / promotion ( movie has been promoted like crazy ) and the whole thing could be 350-400 million. 

 

Movie seems great, can't wait for it. Perhaps 3D will boost its domestic numbers. 

They supposedly got $70m back from insurance. So more like $180m, much more manageable 

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Is the 250 million budget info real?

 

I mean, movie will need to have a insane domestic performance. Rogue Nation stopped with 195 million domestic. This one will really need overseas grosses to help.

 

Add in marketing / promotion ( movie has been promoted like crazy ) and the whole thing could be 350-400 million. 

 

Movie seems great, can't wait for it. Perhaps 3D will boost its domestic numbers. 

The info about that 250m is a rumored gross cost if I remember correctly, net of insurance reimbursing added cost caused by Cruise injury and other incentive, it is a 175-180m type movie.

 

If this get close or above on the domestic level, if should be great considering the way they tend to play globally (30/70 or better) since the last 2 (and Cruise in general).

 

Probably breaking even below a 440m WW box office if it does near 200m dbo.

[PenguinHyphy]

It is so intriguing how Mission Impossible is one of the widest releases ever, but the movie is not going to open anywhere near Black Panther, The Fast and the Furious, Star Wars, James Bond, Wonder Woman, The Jungle Book etcetera, which all opened in less theaters.