MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT WEEKEND THREAD | 23 Friday...MM2 4.8...TT 4.25 EQ2 4.0

[MikeQ]

Assuming Incredibles 2 is making an estimated $7.5M this weekend based on it's Friday number, then if it were to have the same remaining legs as Finding Dory, it would hit ~603M total domestic. I'm now at a point where I feel quite strongly that 600M+ is happening. It continues to hold better than Finding Dory.

 

Peace,
Mike

[Legion Again]

Medium weekend for MI6, but I do think it will have nice legs. Possible that it, AM&TW, and Solo all end up in the same 10M range.

Edited July 28, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Assuming Incredibles 2 is making an estimated $7.5M this weekend based on it's Friday number, then if it were to have the same remaining legs as Finding Dory, it would hit ~603M total domestic. I'm now at a point where I feel quite strongly that 600M+ is happening. It continues to hold better than Finding Dory.

 

Peace,
Mike

It will pass $600m+ with TS3 legs as well.

[Chewy]

I think ppl forget the 5th one had phenomenal reviews/buzz as well. The Cruise missile just has a max altitude

[That One Girl]

The Meg OW over Fallout OW, callin' it.

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

The Meg OW over Fallout OW, callin' it.

!

via GIPHY

 

 

 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

I think ppl forget the 5th one had phenomenal reviews/buzz as well. The Cruise missile just has a max altitude

 

 

I think this one had more marketing though. Shows it makes little difference when it comes to opening weekend 

[Biggestgeekever]

1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

Assuming Incredibles 2 is making an estimated $7.5M this weekend based on it's Friday number, then if it were to have the same remaining legs as Finding Dory, it would hit ~603M total domestic. I'm now at a point where I feel quite strongly that 600M+ is happening. It continues to hold better than Finding Dory.

 

Peace,
Mike

Yep. And Dory had a huge 55% decline on the first weekend of August due to Suicide Squad. That won't happen to Incredibles 2

[Jake Gittes]

Yay Incredibles 2 about to become the second least interesting 600m movie after JW

[That One Girl]

About to GO! to the Movies.

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Well, I understand why it dropped, but it still sucks.

MI-6 being a really direct competition possibly an obvious factor here the daily performance before MI opened were not great either, bad reviews catching up ?

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/equalizer_2

AUDIENCE SCORE 

74% liked it

Average Rating: 3.9/5

User Ratings: 2,256

 

By the Monday of is second weekend the first:

https://web.archive.org/web/20141005031357/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_equalizer_2013/

AUDIENCE SCORE 

82% liked it

Average Rating: 4/5
User Ratings: 49,651

 

----------------------------------

 

If the net of tax rebate production cost is around 77.5m, if it does 90m dbo it will need a 65m intl to double it's budget (not that it necessarily need to).

 

If it play like the first (53/47) it should easily do it and reach 170m and make a nice 2.2 times it's budget domestic heavy.

 

If it play to close to Denzel 2010s average of 58%/42%, could end up around 155-160, for a 2.0 / 2.06 time it's budget.

[Curtis1986]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

I think ppl forget the 5th one had phenomenal reviews/buzz as well. The Cruise missile just has a max altitude

 yeah I don't think word of mouth is really going to matter for Fallout. This is to 6th  film in the franchise. The people that wants to see it would definitely see it by now. Let's not forget the fourth and fifth one also had great word-of-mouth and great reviews.

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, baumer said:

 

I guess the bottom line is that this is a 6th film and a 5th sequel and although the trailer looked awesome, there are only so many fans of the series so to expect growth on our part, might have been questionable;

Yes the expectation of growth was really questionable imo, the amount of resistance will be huge (and the last 2 were really well reviewed and had arguably the better appealing stunt in the tower/plane), for a breakout a clear signal you didn't needed to watch any of the previous movies would be needed (selling the action set piece and a you do not need to follow the story at all, it is mostly non-sense is already a good start).

 

Achieving to maintain is already the goal and the success that the franchise high quality achieved.

 

Not dropping like it achieve to do if this again goes near 200m or so is really something for the 6th entry of the franchise, it is no small feat at all. I am not sure what did better than that retention wise outside the Potters / Fast And Furious exceptional run (the first was adapting really popular book and the second added Dwayne Johnson and other element to achieve it).

 

Pirates

1	3	Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl	BV	$305,413,918	3,416	$46,630,690	3,269	7/9/03
2	1	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$423,315,812	4,133	$135,634,554	4,133	7/7/06
3	2	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$309,420,425	4,362	$114,732,820	4,362	5/25/07
4	4	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	BV	$241,071,802	4,164	$90,151,958	4,155	5/20/11
5	5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales	BV	$172,558,876	4,276	$62,983,253	4,276	5/26/17

 

Transformer

2	3	Transformers	P/DW	$319,246,193	4,050	$70,502,384	4,011	7/3/07
3	1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$402,111,870	4,293	$108,966,307	4,234	6/24/09
4	2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	P/DW	$352,390,543	4,088	$97,852,865	4,088	6/29/11
5	4	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Par.	$245,439,076	4,233	$100,038,390	4,233	6/27/14
6	5	Transformers: The Last Knight	Par.	$130,168,683	4,132	$44,680,073	4,069	6/21/17

 

Bourne

1	4	The Bourne Identity	Uni.	$121,661,683	2,663	$27,118,640	2,638	6/14/02
2	2	The Bourne Supremacy	Uni.	$176,241,941	3,304	$52,521,865	3,165	7/23/04
3	1	The Bourne Ultimatum	Uni.	$227,471,070	3,701	$69,283,690	3,660	8/3/07
4	5	The Bourne Legacy	Uni.	$113,203,870	3,753	$38,142,825	3,745	8/10/12
5	3	Jason Bourne	Uni.	$162,434,410	4,039	$59,215,365	4,026	7/29/16

 

Apes

1	2	Rise of the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$176,760,185	3,691	$54,806,191	3,648	8/5/11
2	1	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$208,545,589	3,969	$72,611,427	3,967	7/11/14
3	3	War for the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$146,880,162	4,100	$56,262,929	4,022	7/14/17

 

Mission impossible:

1	4	Mission: Impossible	Par.	$180,981,856	3,012	$45,436,830	3,012	5/22/96
2	1	Mission: Impossible II	Par.	$215,409,889	3,669	$57,845,297	3,653	5/24/00
3	5	Mission: Impossible III	Par.	$134,029,801	4,059	$47,743,273	4,054	5/5/06
4	2	Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol	Par.	$209,397,903	3,555	$12,785,204	425	12/16/11
5	3	Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation	Par.	$195,042,377	3,988	$55,520,089	3,956	7/31/15

 

In the last 10/11 year's

Pirates went from 309 to 172
Transformer from 402 to 130
Bourne from 227 to 162
Apes started at 176, raised to 208 and ended below 150.

 

MI went from 134 to making around 200m probably 3 times in a row, now back above the Transformer/Pirates giant franchise of the past. Back above Bond probably. And did maintain is dbo while being a franchise that focus at lot on intl market (the story/locations being really international and it show in how well it does WW)

 

 

Bond achieved to do it with Skyfall obviously,  but the first Bonds movies adjust over 600m.

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2018 by Barnack

[nick64]

Fallout also has significantly more competition than Rogue Nation. This is directly following Skyscraper and Equalizer 2, not to mention Ant-Man, Sicario, and Jurassic in the action genre. Rogue Nation’s closest comp was Pixels...

 

I expect excellent legs for this and wouldn’t be surprised if its Saturday and Sunday are better than predictions.

Edited July 28, 2018 by nick64

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

But yeah, people, go see Fallout. There are scenes that need to be seen to be believed, and if you doubted Cavill as an actor, no more. Also, there's a new breakout actress/character. 

 

I didn't before (really opinion less about him) and now I do, is physicality worked well obviously, but outside of that he did so little imo with that nice part.

[Chewy]

3 minutes ago, nick64 said:

Fallout also has significantly more competition than Rogue Nation. This is directly following Skyscraper and Equalizer 2, not to mention Ant-Man, Sicario, and Jurassic in the action genre. Rogue Nation’s closest comp was Pixels...

 

RN opened a few weeks after Ant-Man and a month after Jurassic too lol

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

RN opened a few weeks after Ant-Man and a month after Jurassic too lol

It’s the sequel cycle every 3 years

[Premium George]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/28/ving-rhames-police-gunpoint-home

Ving Rhames was held at gunpoint by police officers in his home after a neighbor reported that a “large black man” had broken in, the actor said on Friday.

[That One Girl]

50 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

About to GO! to the Movies.

 

currently AT! the Moviws

[nick64]

24 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

RN opened a few weeks after Ant-Man and a month after Jurassic too lol

Yeah I know, I was more referring to Skyscraper and Equalizer as the direct competition. Those others are just more that could’ve added potential fatigue to action fans. MI can certainly thrive a few weeks apart from Jurassic and Ant-Man, but when the gaps are filled with two more films that target the exact same audience as MI, that can really hurt it.

 

Just to be clear, I definitely think this is a solid opening, but it probably could’ve been bigger with a less crowded schedule.