Taruseth Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: 1.5 is only possible if Domestic do just 450k because 1050mn is all but locked imo. Conservative on the OS multi 3x would mean 900M from current markets and then 525M Dom and 75M from Italy and Japan. Haven't really looked into the numbers more detailed so no real idea how the different markets are performing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, john2000 said: fingers crossed, may i ask what kind of drop it had this weekend os ? in % 142.8M this weekend, 255M last weekend. -44% (HK's opening included, but the % shouldn't change as actuals will likely put it a little higher). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Spain number ($21m) seems unreal. That means €18.9m with current XR. TLK did €6.37m 3-day opening and €8.06m 4.day opening. It means €10.84m along 2nd week. Even with high weekedays, that number implies about a mere 10-15% drop relative to 3-day opening. IMHO, and knowing how this kind of films perform here, it will double the current number. 40 million euro total is probable. Maybe more.. That means to target #3 ever (The Impossible €42m). We need to know the weekend number, but this could be a historic run. 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: 1.5 is only possible if Domestic do just 450k because 1050mn is all but locked imo. what do you expect for dom ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nguyenkhoi282 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 By next Sunday, domestic will be ~440M OS, actuals will bring the weekend to 145M (6M China) and 614M total. China will finish at 120M. OS-China is currently at 500M.Last weekdays did 106M from a 255M weekend. Expect ~ 58M weekdays and 72M coming up (Hobbs and Shaw) for 630 OS-China + 120M China = 750M OS total by next Sunday. 1.190B next weekend Still expecting 600M domestic and 1.00B OS (120/880) for 1.60B WW total 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said: By next Sunday, domestic will be ~440M OS, actuals will bring the weekend to 145M (6M China) and 614M total. China will finish at 120M. OS-China is currently at 500M.Last weekdays did 106M from a 255M weekend. Expect ~ 58M weekdays and 72M coming up (Hobbs and Shaw) for 630 OS-China + 120M China = 750M OS total by next Sunday. 1.190B next weekend Still expecting 600M domestic and 1.00B OS (120/880) for 1.60B WW total my range is 1,5-1,7 and as charlie said 1,1 os is totally possible , however i want to ask how this movie will be 440 by next sunday ?is this possible ? Edited July 28, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 (edited) Zero chance for 600m domestic. That will need 4.33x legs from 2nd weekend. 550m is better target for it. OS should hit 1B. Overall should finish in 1.55-1.6B range. I am also thinking this is gonna underperform in Japan. Edited July 28, 2019 by keysersoze123 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nguyenkhoi282 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, john2000 said: my range is 1,5-1,7 and as charlie said 1,1 os is totally possible , however i want to ask how this movie will be 440 by next sunday ?is this possible ? 45M weekdays and 45M weekend. Pretty possible, though it might fall short a little. I don't know OS that well so i just extrapolate conservatively my way. Edited July 28, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, peludo said: Spain number ($21m) seems unreal. That means €18.9m with current XR. TLK did €6.37m 3-day opening and €8.06m 4.day opening. It means €10.84m along 2nd week. Even with high weekedays, that number implies about a mere 10-15% drop relative to 3-day opening. IMHO, and knowing how this kind of films perform here, it will double the current number. 40 million euro total is probable. Maybe more.. That means to target #3 ever (The Impossible €42m). We need to know the weekend number, but this could be a historic run. Good to see spain doing well for some movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Zero chance for 600m domestic. That will need 4.33x legs from 2nd weekend. 550m is better target for it. OS should hit 1B. Overall should finish in 1.55-1.6B range. I am also thinking this is gonna underperform in Japan. my range is 1,5-1,7 however the point is that this movie is a very a big success at the end of the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Omni said: 142.8M this weekend, 255M last weekend. -44% (HK's opening included, but the % shouldn't change as actuals will likely put it a little higher). until the jump with actuals. so more like 144M or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Should be somewhere around $1.16b through next Sunday, worldwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 More details from Deadline TLK posted a 45% drop in like-for-like markets across the 3rd frame, suggesting we are not seeing frontloading. The only hub where it is not still stalking the top of the charts is China, although the gross there is $114.8M to lead all offshore play. Two local titles have dominated the Middle Kingdom in what’s been a rough summer for homegrown fare there. Europe as a region dropped by just 41% and The Lion King remained as the No. 1 release. Strong holds included Switzerland (+10%), Portugal (-16%), Spain (-27%), Israel (-29%), France (-32%), Netherlands (-32%), Germany (-39%) and UK (-41%). The estimated regional cume is now $252M, making The Lion King the 2nd biggest release of 2019. It’s Disney’s world in Europe where the studio has the Top 4 movies of the year. Also, in the Netherlands, TLK has become the fastest movie ever to reach 1M admissions. In Asia Pacific, the cume is now an estimated $236M. Outside China, TLK remained the top draw in all markets. Strong holds included Malaysia (-33%), Singapore (-35%), Vietnam (-42%) and Australia (-45%). Hong Kong just opened, with $2M, to pace above both The Jungle Book and Aladdin. In Latin America, the dip was 39% and all holds were No. 1. Argentina, at -16%, leads the drops, along with Peru (-21%), Brazil (-30%), Chile (-34%) and Colombia (-37%). The estimated regional cume is now $123M with the movie already the highest grossing Disney-branded live-action release in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Central America, Trinidad, Uruguay and Paraguay. Behind China, the Top 5 is rounded out by the UK ($45.1M), Brazil ($42.1M), France ($40.1M) and Mexico ($37.1M). Still to come are Japan and Italy in August. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 hour ago, peludo said: Spain number ($21m) seems unreal. That means €18.9m with current XR. TLK did €6.37m 3-day opening and €8.06m 4.day opening. It means €10.84m along 2nd week. Even with high weekedays, that number implies about a mere 10-15% drop relative to 3-day opening. IMHO, and knowing how this kind of films perform here, it will double the current number. 40 million euro total is probable. Maybe more.. That means to target #3 ever (The Impossible €42m). We need to know the weekend number, but this could be a historic run. Bodes very well for Italy, considering how similarly the two countries have behaved for the Disney live actions. If everything goes right, it might come close to Endgame here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Omni said: Bodes very well for Italy, considering how similarly the two countries have behaved for the Disney live actions. If everything goes right, it might come close to Endgame here. 30 MILLION ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 phenomenal European holds. Latin America is not bad but not great either. Great holds in few Asian markets as well(India/Malaysia/Singapore etc). Overall its having good holds in leggy europe and so 1B should comfortably happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, john2000 said: 30 MILLION ? Certainly possible. It has a great release date (late August) but it also needs a push from the weather, even half the one Endgame got would be more than enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Omni said: come close to Endgame here. Over Alice imho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said: More details from Deadline Spain (-27%) That drop implies really strong weekdays (€6.2m in Mon-Thu period). And it means €4.65m 2nd weekend. That is the same, for example, than Aladdin OW, which is currently at €24m, so another €20m could be added from now. Since it is now at €19m, €40m ($44m) could become real. It would be the third biggest gross ever for a Hollywood film, just behind Avatar and Titanic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 19 hours ago, peludo said: Spain number ($21m) seems unreal. That means €18.9m with current XR. TLK did €6.37m 3-day opening and €8.06m 4.day opening. It means €10.84m along 2nd week. Even with high weekedays, that number implies about a mere 10-15% drop relative to 3-day opening. IMHO, and knowing how this kind of films perform here, it will double the current number. 40 million euro total is probable. Maybe more.. That means to target #3 ever (The Impossible €42m). We need to know the weekend number, but this could be a historic run. Insane ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
