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The Lion King OS Thread

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@VenomXXR I would not rule out more than $30m in Spain. It is the biggest animated film ever (by far) in Spain. And the musical version is still solding out every showtime. TLK potential is gigantic here.

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$100m requires £75m in the U.K which is not an easy task, and with the Brexit turmoil the ER over the next months could be impacted further. 

 

As it’s the Lion King though it could get there. Beauty and the Beast made £72m last year, and Toy Story 3 made £74m back in 2010. 

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Posted (edited)

1/1.2B os

 

China +300M 

Japan +100M

UK +100M

Edited by fabiopazzo2
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Corpse:

 

Quote

The Lion King isn't exactly an original film, so it likely won't become a breakout hit, much less a phenomenon. Most of the market's biggest films, or films with the leggiest or breakout performances, are original (though "original" is a bit of a loose term now) releases. That's why it's typically impossible to predict/project them. Seven of the top ten films of the last ten years are original films, and they're all ranked 1st-7th with the sequels taking the 8th-10th spots.

This isn't like predicting Frozen, Your Name., or any other phenomenon or breakout release.

The question becomes: Why would audiences want to spend their money, especially during the Summer box-office season with many options, on The Lion King? 

1.) It's a Disney film, that's a plus. But not all Disney films find success. 
2.) It's based on a Disney classic... but the original animated film wasn't a blockbuster in the market. It was the #5 film of the year (1994) it was released, which is good, but it's also outside of the Top 80 highest-grossing animated films in the market. It doesn't have the cultural/generational significance here.
3.) Disney live-action adaptions have been huge in Japan, just see Beauty and the Beast and Alice in Wonderland. Yes, those two films were uber-blockbusters, but they're also Disney Princess films that attracted females (females dominate the moviegoer audience in the market). So far, every non-Disney Princess live-action remake has disappointed. 

Now, I'm not saying The Lion King will bomb or disappoint. It should do fine business, but there's really no reasons to expect a breakout. I also highly doubt it'll open at #1 though because it opens against the latest One Piece film, and Weathering With You could still be #1 if it connects. Opening at #2/3 would result in a lack of media attention, and possible early screen/showtime cuts.

I personally think the biggest issue will be competition from One Piece and Weathering with You. I predict $50m from Japan.

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Posted (edited)

While statements #1 and #3 are true, I completely disagree with Corpse's conclusion for #2. I lived in Japan for almost 6 years. During my life there, I thought The Lion King was the biggest Disney's animated film in Japan (from the 80's and 90's). That's because it's very popular and referenced so many times, by so many people. So saying "It doesn't have the cultural/generational significance" is just not right.

 

While the original animated film wasn't that big, the popularity of Lion King has risen significantly since then. So if it's really really good, I can see 10B yen or even $100m+. But then, we have One Piece and Weathering with You. And yeah, they will be the main problems for TLK. 

Edited by catlover
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1.1 B OS ...

 

China :- $300 M+

Japan :- $60 M+  (Due To Competition)

UK :- $100 M+

India :- $35 M+

Spain :- $30 M+

 

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Now that presales have started domestically, they should be starting everywhere within the next 10 days.

 

As the main proponent that this film will be enormous worldwide, my only hope is it can have an opening like Infinity War and legs like Aladdin.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Now that presales have started domestically, they should be starting everywhere within the next 10 days.

 

As the main proponent that this film will be enormous worldwide, my only hope is it can have an opening like Infinity War and legs like Aladdin.

Started in Germany today at 3 pm CEST (= 6 am PT) so started at exactly the same time as in the US.

 

Won't say anything about were it could head for quite some time as I have no idea, on the one hand, it should easily be able to beat Endgame (above 5m adm and should have a shot at becoming the biggest movie since TFA back in 2015 for that it needs 6.2m adm) on the other hand I fear it won't perform much better than TJB (so probably around 2m adm).

Will do a first presales count tonight but I don't think that will point towards anything.

Really hope for a big breakout though like really big.

 

Also, what is up with Disney TLK just like Endgame releases on a Wednesday they rarely do that, will the same happen with Frozen 2 and TROS? (the two other big Disney movies this year). Looks like in some cinemas it gets 2 or three midnight-shows and in others none...

 

Numbers of shows is okay, nothing spectacular but also not small.

Edited by Taruseth
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Just posted this in the New Zealand thread Disney and my local cinemas are really backing TLK to be big, I don’t know how to crosspost so will just copy and paste. 

 

Lion King at Events Cinema Albany starting with a lot of sessions opening day, the number is 23, this is more than Far From Home, which has 14 at the moment and I think has added a session or two over the last week or so and has obviously been on sale much longer. Neither film has sold many tickets, which is the same as Toy Story 4 and even Endgame recently, I think more people are starting to wait to closer to the time to get tickets. 

 

Had a quick look at Queen Street (one of the biggest in the country) and it has 23 sessions for TLK, 12 for FFH. This leads me to believe that Albany may be having strong sales recently for them to both be getting a similar amount of screenings. 

 

 

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We’re about 14 hours away from the first shows starting in China. My realistic (outside of my club) OS number is $1 billion. Almost the entire OS rollout will occur between July 12th and 21st, with 3 major markets coming later (HK - July 25, Japan - August 9, Italy - August 21).

 

Long live the King.

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i could see anything in the range of 1-1,3, but i will go with 1250 :d

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Still thinking around 1.5B although less confident now than I was a month or two ago.

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

i could see anything in the range of 1-1,3, but i will go with 1250 :d

Bold. Any breakdown?

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5 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Bold. Any breakdown?

I am talking about os. No its more of a hope, or gut feeling if you will so

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$1.2 Billion+ OS numbers ...

 

Long Live The King 

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17 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

750m OS. That's it. 

tenor.gif

 

 

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