Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M

[sfran43]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

MI’s is An actual. Take a look

 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

That's a mistake 

[Jake Gittes]

Deadpool getting fudged with Darkest Minds lmao

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Deadpool getting fudged with Darkest Minds lmao

 

There's no need to fudge anything with Deadpool.  It's not like a late run is going to get it to 320 or any other kind of significant number.

[Jake Gittes]

Just now, baumer said:

 

There's no need to fudge anything with Deadpool.  It's not like a late run is going to get it to 320 or any other kind of significant number.

I know. They're still doing it though. Just for kicks I guess. You seen its number?

[baumer]

3 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

If this were to follow WIT it goes over 30.  I'm curious as to what comp they are using to give it such a low weekend number.  25 seems awfully low.

Even if it were to have a smaller Saturday bump like Journey to the Centre of the earth, it still gets to 29-30.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

I know. They're still doing it though. Just for kicks I guess. You seen its number?

 

True....weird film to fudge it with.  One is hard R the other pg-13.  Strange.

[filmlover]

Just now, baumer said:

 

True....weird film to fudge it with.  One is hard R the other pg-13.  Strange.

And one of them is a flop lol.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

UPDATED with Friday estimates

 

Edit: Should be 1.8m for Ant-Man

 

RANK	FILM	DIS.	SCREENS (CHG)	FRI	3-DAY (-%)	TOTAL	WK
	1	M:I – Fallout	Par/Sky	4,395 (+9)	$9.8M (-57%)	$34M (-44%)	$123.3M	2
	2	Christopher Robin	Dis	3,602	$9.5M	$26.2M	$26.2M	1
	3	The Spy Who Dumped Me	LG	3,111	$5M	$12.8M	$12.8M	1
	4	Mamma Mia 2	Uni	3,359 (-155)	$2.8M (-40%)	$8.9M (-41%)	$91.1M	3
	5	Equalizer 2	Sony	2,725 (-663)	$2.4M (-40%)	$8.4M (-40%)	$79.4M	3
	6	Hotel Transylvania 3	Sony	3,162 (-843)	$2.4M (-35%)	$8M (-34%)	$136.2M	4
	7	Ant-Man And The Wasp	Dis	2,233 (-780)	$2.5M	$6.2M (-29%)	$195.4M	5
	8	The Darkest Minds	Fox	3,127	$2.3M	$6M	$6M	1
	9	Incredibles 2	Dis	1,802 (-814)	$1.4M (-33%)	$4.8M (-33%)	$582.9M	8
	10	Teen Titans Go!	WB	3,188	$1.4M (-66%)	$4.6M (-56%)	$20.5M	2

Edited August 4, 2018 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

Does anyone know what film CR is being comped to have it open at 25?  Every pg live action family film I have looked at has it getting over 30....and if it were to blow up on Saturday like Journey 2 did and get a 90% increase on saturday, it would get closer to 38.  That came out in February so different time of year but I'm just saying that 25 from 9.5 for a pg Disney family movie seems pretty low.

 

Same with Peter Rabbit, 

 

I don't see how this opens to anything less than 29 mill.

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

Does anyone know what film CR is being comped to have it open at 25?  Every pg live action family film I have looked at has it getting over 30....and if it were to blow up on Saturday like Journey 2 did and get a 90% increase on saturday, it would get closer to 38.  That came out in February so different time of year but I'm just saying that 25 from 9.5 for a pg Disney family movie seems pretty low.

Pete's Dragon gotta be the best comparison. 7m Friday 21.5 OW. Dunno if it had previews. 

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Pete's Dragon gotta be the best comparison. 7m Friday 21.5 OW. Dunno if it had previews. 

 

So they took one movie out of about 6 they could have used, and used the one with the lowest multiplier.  Interesting.

[Webslinger]

The fact that schools are still out will weaken Christopher Robin's weekend multiplier, as is typical with kid-friendly summer openers.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Pete's Dragon gotta be the best comparison. 7m Friday 21.5 OW. Dunno if it had previews. 

 

That still brings it to 29.45.  

 

Someone is smoking some new soon to be legal Canadian weed.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

Does anyone know what film CR is being comped to have it open at 25?  Every pg live action family film I have looked at has it getting over 30....and if it were to blow up on Saturday like Journey 2 did and get a 90% increase on saturday, it would get closer to 38.  That came out in February so different time of year but I'm just saying that 25 from 9.5 for a pg Disney family movie seems pretty low.

 

Same with Peter Rabbit, 

 

I don't see how this opens to anything less than 29 mill.

 

Summer has far smaller Saturday bumps for family and kid films.  Pete's Dragon had a 21% bump (it didn't have previews) so a calculated 20-30% Saturday  (minus previews) bump seems most likely.  Should have a $27-28m o/w unless WOM pushes it higher.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Webslinger said:

The fact that schools are still out will weaken Christopher Robin's weekend multiplier, as is typical with kid-friendly summer openers.

 

Even if you use Pete's Dragon, you get 29.45 mill.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Summer has far smaller Saturday bumps for family and kid films.  Pete's Dragon had a 21% bump (it didn't have previews) so a calculated 20-30% Saturday  (minus previews) bump seems most likely.  Should have a $27-28m o/w unless WOM pushes it higher.

 

All due respect, I know all of that.  I'm saying if you take the shittiest film to use an example, you still get 29.5 mill.  If you want to take away the 1.5 in previews, you still get 28.  I think this will have a larger increase on Saturday.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Even if you use Pete's Dragon, you get 29.45 mill.

That was closer to mid-August when summer camps were starting to dwindle. We're in the first weekend of August so the multiplier won't be that high.