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Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

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THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRI 3-DAY (-%) TOTAL WK
crazy-rich.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=135 1 Crazy Rich Asians WB 3,384 $7M $21.6M  $30.4M 1
the-meg-3.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=135 2 The Meg WB 4,118 $5.9M (-65%) $20M (-56%) $82.6M 2
mile-22.png?resize=500%2C281&w=135 3 Mile 22 STX 3,520 $5.4M $14.3M  $14.3M 1
fallout-ii.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=135 4 M:I – Fallout Par/Sky 3,482 (-406) $3M (-42%) $10.9M (-43%) $181.1M 4
christopher-robin.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w 5 Christopher Robin Dis 3,602 $2.7M (-26%) $9.6M (-25%) $67.6M 3
alpha-e1514492315992.jpg?resize=500%2C28 6 Alpha S8/Sony 2,719 $3.3M $9.4M  $9.4M 1
blackkklansman.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=13 7 BlacKkKlansman Focus 1,788 (+276) $2M (-44%) $6.8M (-37%) $22.8M 2
slender-man1.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=135 8 Slender Man Sony 2,358 $1.4M (-71%) $4.3M (-62%) $20M 2
mamma-mia-2.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w=135 9 Mamma Mia 2 Uni 2,270 (-542) $1M (-37%) $3.5M (-40%)  $111.3M 5
hotel-3-e1531662129118.jpg?resize=500%2C 10 Hotel Transylvania 3 Sony 2,187 (-402) $966K (-32%) $3.4M (-35%) $153.3M 6
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25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
                 
christopher-robin.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w 5 Christopher Robin Dis 3,602 $2.7M (-26%) $9.6M (-25%) $67.6M 3

668mRsI.jpg

 

---

Haven't been paying much attention to what folks think of CR's chances so for all I know, this is already a given or has no shot at all. But at a quick glance if it follows Pete's Dragon [2016] from here on out it is really really REALLY close to 100m. :ph34r:

Edited by Porthos
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6 minutes ago, picores said:

CR still has a shot to make 100m DOM with this drop, i dont see it making though. Around 95m finish.

It would make $96m+ if had the same % drops as Pete's Dragon from this w/e on out (PD's 2nd w/e b/c it opened a week later) but it's holding better.  $100m+ is very much in play.

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21 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It would make $96m+ if had the same % drops as Pete's Dragon from this w/e on out (PD's 2nd w/e b/c it opened a week later) but it's holding better.  $100m+ is very much in play.

double-features-chihiro-wimbush-720x340.

 

It's lurking out there.  Looming even.  Silently waiting for its time to pounce on unsuspecting derby entries everywhere. :ph34r:

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9 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

If this weekend number holds true for MI6 then although 200m is done deal but won't reach 215m to become highest in the series.

if mi6 adds 3x this weekend to it's cume will get to 181+3*11=214

not very easy but wouldn't rule out 215 after 11 this weekend. LD boost will help a lot too.

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12 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

If this weekend number holds true for MI6 then although 200m is done deal but won't reach 215m to become highest in the series.

Oh well, even if it surpassed 215m, people like Alli would start with inflation and the like to scream “failure!”.

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2 hours ago, picores said:

Well, if The Meg hits 20m over the weekend i think its a drop solid enough. In the end, 120-130m DOM is more than twice what people expected a month ago. Plus its killing it OS with 300m+ on the low end

Its having a jaw(s)dropping hold in China to. Only down 35-40% for the weekend. That is rare for a nonanimated hollywood movie.

Range is 130-140 mill $ total now

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Mission: Impossible Movie First
Weekend
(Wide)
%
Change
Domestic
Gross
%
Change
Multiplier
(DG ÷ FW)
Foreign
Gross
%
Change
Worldwide
Gross
%
Change
Mission: Impossible
(May 1996)**
$45.4M   $181.0M   3.98 $276.7M   $457.7M  

Mission: Impossible II
(May 2000)**

$57.8M 27.31% $215.4M 19.02% 3.72 $331.0M 19.61% $546.4M 19.38%
Mission: Impossible III
(May 2006)
$47.7M -17.46% $134.0M -37.78% 2.81 $263.8M -20.29% $397.9M -27.19%
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
(Dec. 2011)**
$29.6M -38.09% $209.4M 56.23% 7.08 $485.3M 83.96% $694.7M 74.62%
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
(Jul. 2015)
$55.5M 87.84% $195.0M -6.86% 3.51 $487.7M 0.49% $682.7M -1.73%
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
(Jul. 2018)*
$61.2M 10.30% $170.2M -12.72% 2.78 $289.8M -40.58% $460.0M -32.62%
* numbers are not final / still in theaters
** released wide mid-week
*** M:I - Ghost Protocol earned $17.1M during 5-day limited release; its multiplier is 6.51 when subtracted from the gross
 
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of August 16, 2018

 

Rogue Nation took 37 days to hit 90% of its gross; I haven't looked at the others.

 

Ghost Protocol's opening was probably deflated and the multi inflated by December in addition to the limited rollout and wide release mid-week.

 

Release
Month
Average
Multiplier
Median
Multiplier
Release
Month
Average
Multiplier
Median
Multiplier
January 2.88 2.66 July 3.30 3.22
February 2.81 2.73 August 3.22 3.00
March 3.02 2.89 September 2.87 2.75
April 2.76 2.65 October 3.02 2.75
May 2.95 2.82 November 3.43 3.23
June 3.13 3.01 December 5.45 4.76
all (1025 movies) 3.21 2.93
averages and medians from the top opening wide release domestic movies
during the recent ten year time period of 2008 to 2017; currently excludes
2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red

 

 

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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hmmmmm, is 4 superhero movies in the summer top 5 back on the menu?     

 

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Yes I’m counting IW despite the 1 week shift.

 

It wasn’t released in the summer though so....

 

What a boring weekend. Mile 22 DOA (are STX officially in trouble now?) 

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3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hmmmmm, is 4 superhero movies in the summer top 5 back on the menu?     

 

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Yes I’m counting IW despite the 1 week shift.

 

would be a sad day if ant man 2 outgrossed fallout

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