Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

[sfran43]

 

[grim22]

We have a new champion, @CJohn would have been happy. May his soul rest in peace, or whatever it is he is doing right now

 

BIGGEST THEATER DROPS
Wide Releases That Lost the Most Theaters in Their Third Weekends
Most of the time, theaters are obligated to show a movie for two weeks. What they do when that time's up speaks to a picture's traction in the marketplace. 
1982-Present

Note: This chart only shows the 200 largest drops regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Theaters Week 2	Theater Change	Theaters Week 3	% BO Change	Total Gross^	Release Date*
1	The Darkest Minds	3,127	-2,679	448	-88.1%	$12,289,659	8/03/18
2	Live By Night	2,822	-2,659	163	-94.1%	$10,378,555	1/13/17
3	A Cure for Wellness	2,704	-2,616	88	-97.8%	$8,106,986	2/17/17
4	Meet Dave	3,011	-2,523	488	-77.0%	$11,803,254	7/11/08
5	Hardcore Henry	3,015	-2,496	519	-80.5%	$9,252,038	4/08/16
6	Jonah Hex	2,825	-2,475	350	-92.4%	$10,547,117	6/18/10
7	Pride and Prejudice and Zombies	2,931	-2,455	476	-88.0%	$10,938,134	2/05/16
8	The Space Between Us	2,758	-2,441	317	-83.4%	$7,885,294	2/03/17
9	In the Heart of the Sea	3,103	-2,418	685	-72.3%	$25,020,758	12/11/15
10	Mortdecai	2,648	-2,395	253	-90.4%	$7,696,134	1/23/15
11	The Rocker	2,784	-2,375	409	-84.0%	$6,409,528	8/20/08
12	MacGruber	2,546	-2,369	177	-93.7%	$8,525,600	5/21/10
13	The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising	3,173	-2,338	835	-78.9%	$8,794,452	10/05/07
14	Blackhat	2,568	-2,332	236	-93.0%	$8,005,980	1/16/15
15	Winter's Tale	2,965	-2,260	705	-88.8%	$12,600,231	2/14/14
16	The Walk	2,489	-2,228	261	-82.4%	$10,137,502	10/09/15
17	The Last Stand	2,913	-2,224	689	-87.4%	$12,050,299	1/18/13
18	Victor Frankenstein	2,797	-2,219	578	-73.2%	$5,775,076	11/25/15
19	Rules Don't Apply	2,386	-2,208	178	-93.1%	$3,652,206	11/23/16
20	The Express	2,810	-2,205	605	-79.3%	$9,793,406	10/10/08

[Brainbug]

58 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

Has a good chance to just inch past 1,3 Billion. I am shocked, SHOCKED that the haters of this movie seem to have disappeared

[MagnarTheGreat]

As requested by @Thanos Legion a couple of weeks back, here's AMatW versus Logan:

 

	Logan	Ant-Man and The Wasp*	AMatW % change From L
	(Mar. 2017)	(Jul. 2018)
Weekend 1	$88,411,916	$75,812,205	-14.25%
Week 1	$114,806,733	$103,985,225	-9.43%
Week 2	$51,720,152	$44,513,067	-13.93%
Week 3	$24,783,711	$26,225,835	5.82%
Week 4	$14,357,041	$14,557,308	1.39%
Week 5	$8,339,771	$10,188,909	22.17%
Week 6	$5,711,871	$6,275,306	9.86%
Weekend 7	$1,937,295	$2,646,856	36.63%
Domestic Gross on Day 45	$221,656,574	$208,392,506	-5.98%
Final Domestic Gross	$226,277,068	TBD
Multiplier on Day 45	2.51**	2.75
90% of Domestic Gross on Day	26	27
* still in theaters
** final gross multiplier: 2.56

 

	Logan	AMatW	Gap
Week 1 cume	$114,806,733	$103,985,225	$10,821,508	-9.43%
Week 2 cume	$166,526,885	$148,498,292	$18,028,593	-10.83%
Week 3 cume	$191,310,596	$174,724,127	$16,586,469	-8.67%
Week 4 cume	$205,667,637	$189,281,435	$16,386,202	-7.97%
Week 5 cume	$214,007,408	$199,470,344	$14,537,064	-6.79%
Week 6 cume	$219,719,279	$205,745,650	$13,973,629	-6.36%
Weekend 7 cume	$221,656,574	$208,392,506	$13,264,068	-5.98%

[KeepItU25071906]

29 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 I am shocked, SHOCKED that the haters of this movie seem to have disappeared 

 

[Brainbug]

55 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

I think you know which specific people i meant

[cookie]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

We have a new champion, @CJohn would have been happy. May his soul rest in peace, or whatever it is he is doing right now

 

BIGGEST THEATER DROPS
Wide Releases That Lost the Most Theaters in Their Third Weekends
Most of the time, theaters are obligated to show a movie for two weeks. What they do when that time's up speaks to a picture's traction in the marketplace. 
1982-Present

Note: This chart only shows the 200 largest drops regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Theaters Week 2	Theater Change	Theaters Week 3	% BO Change	Total Gross^	Release Date*
1	The Darkest Minds	3,127	-2,679	448	-88.1%	$12,289,659	8/03/18
2	Live By Night	2,822	-2,659	163	-94.1%	$10,378,555	1/13/17
3	A Cure for Wellness	2,704	-2,616	88	-97.8%	$8,106,986	2/17/17
4	Meet Dave	3,011	-2,523	488	-77.0%	$11,803,254	7/11/08
5	Hardcore Henry	3,015	-2,496	519	-80.5%	$9,252,038	4/08/16
6	Jonah Hex	2,825	-2,475	350	-92.4%	$10,547,117	6/18/10
7	Pride and Prejudice and Zombies	2,931	-2,455	476	-88.0%	$10,938,134	2/05/16
8	The Space Between Us	2,758	-2,441	317	-83.4%	$7,885,294	2/03/17
9	In the Heart of the Sea	3,103	-2,418	685	-72.3%	$25,020,758	12/11/15
10	Mortdecai	2,648	-2,395	253	-90.4%	$7,696,134	1/23/15
11	The Rocker	2,784	-2,375	409	-84.0%	$6,409,528	8/20/08
12	MacGruber	2,546	-2,369	177	-93.7%	$8,525,600	5/21/10
13	The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising	3,173	-2,338	835	-78.9%	$8,794,452	10/05/07
14	Blackhat	2,568	-2,332	236	-93.0%	$8,005,980	1/16/15
15	Winter's Tale	2,965	-2,260	705	-88.8%	$12,600,231	2/14/14
16	The Walk	2,489	-2,228	261	-82.4%	$10,137,502	10/09/15
17	The Last Stand	2,913	-2,224	689	-87.4%	$12,050,299	1/18/13
18	Victor Frankenstein	2,797	-2,219	578	-73.2%	$5,775,076	11/25/15
19	Rules Don't Apply	2,386	-2,208	178	-93.1%	$3,652,206	11/23/16
20	The Express	2,810	-2,205	605	-79.3%	$9,793,406	10/10/08

Lots of Fox and WB movies on that list.  They're quick to act when something truly tanks.

[Jonwo]

It'll be interesting how Crazy Rich Asians does OS, The Help for example despite its leggy run was a bit of a flop OS with only $46m. I think WB would be fine with a $50-70m OS total but I hope it can crack $100m

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

Lots of Fox and WB movies on that list.  They're quick to act when something truly tanks.

In the Heart of the Sea has the dubious honour of having the highest opening weekend and highest total. 

[Yandereprime101189]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Has a good chance to just inch past 1,3 Billion. I am shocked, SHOCKED that the haters of this movie seem to have disappeared

 

Our big beautiful baby is all grown up and making the cash money!

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Jonwo said:

It'll be interesting how Crazy Rich Asians does OS, The Help for example despite its leggy run was a bit of a flop OS with only $46m. I think WB would be fine with a $50-70m OS total but I hope it can crack $100m

To be fair, The Help was very US-centric so it's not surprising its success failed to really translate beyond here.

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, The Help was very US-centric so it's not surprising its success failed to really translate beyond here.

Also, seeing Asian actors topline a movie is not a rare occasion for representation in Asian countries. Koreans are used to seeing korean actors in their movies and so on, so the movie does not stand apart from the pack in those countries.

[IronJimbo]

11 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Has a good chance to just inch past 1,3 Billion. I am shocked, SHOCKED that the haters of this movie seem to have disappeared

1.3b? That's still 90m less than 0.5A...

 

I mean if you're a big blockbuster and can't make just HALF of Avatar, are you really a big blockbuster?

[Firepower]

12 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Has a good chance to just inch past 1,3 Billion. I am shocked, SHOCKED that the haters of this movie seem to have disappeared

I'm still here and this movie is still incompetent colossal piece of shit written by 5 year old who watched only Uwe Boll movies. It's not the first time GA ate garbage, even this terrible, but it's sad to see what this franchise has become and that Spielberg doesn't care anymore.

[a2k]

Didn't expect JW2 to do anywhere close 1300 after it's ow. Had reduced expectations to 1075-1125 early into the run, and after some staying power in China (instead of 265, 205-215 looked likely a couple of days into release) and good Dom holds 1200 seemed possible on the high-end. But os markets outside of China must have done very well legs-wise to make 1300 possible with Japan's release, not to mention blowing past 400 dom to now approaching 2.8x multi.

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Didn't expect JW2 to do anywhere close 1300 after it's ow. Had reduced expectations to 1075-1125 early into the run, and after some staying power in China (instead of 265, 205-215 looked likely a couple of days into release) and good Dom holds 1200 seemed possible on the high-end. But os markets outside of China must have done very well legs-wise to make 1300 possible with Japan's release, not to mention blowing past 400 dom to now approaching 2.8x multi.

 

Generally, Blockbusters released during the World Cup tend to have smaller OW's, but much better legs, since there are mostly only so many big movies released in that time period. JW2 had practically 4 weeks for itself in many OS markets.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Generally, Blockbusters released during the World Cup tend to have smaller OW's, but much better legs, since there are mostly only so many big movies released in that time period. JW2 had practically 4 weeks for itself in many OS markets.

from what i followed of jw2's europe run during the world cup, there wasn't much talk about how it's legs are holding up though. by the time it showed great holds maybe folks weren't intrested enough as bigger markets like China, Japan, Dom demand more eyeballs. Would love track what the movie did in some major European markets combined. Even if it has had a scattered release, add up all the ows, add up all the totals and find the overall Europe multipler. Will do it if I don't lazy up.

[Jonwo]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, The Help was very US-centric so it's not surprising its success failed to really translate beyond here.

I always find it interesting about films that completely flop OS like a Ride Along, Compton or Girls Trip, in those cases, those were very African American centric which doesn't translate well OS normally. Even Black Panther which was a huge hit OS, made less than domestic but the gap was a lot smaller compared to the forementioned title.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Jonwo