Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I thought it was making 163m total

It still can 🤔

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh the original poster mentioned the three flops though. That’s why I replied, commenting that 3 misses in a row means it’s probably time to stop. 

 

I think Lone Survivor was before them?

LS was the first of the bunch.

 

It will be 3 commercial miss in a row, the first 2 miss were quite the good movies too.

 

At least deepwater horizon was popular on physical media rental:

https://pmcdeadline2.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/mpaa-theme-report-2017.pdf

A top 10 in 2017 despite missing the top 50 at the box office in 2016.

 

Not sure I fully understand why Patriot Day didn't work better, Deepwater Horizon being a 156m production with little international appeal was an obvious huge risk, but a Trent Reznor / Peter Berg / Walhberg movie that good, green on metacritic and everything that end with Big Papy at the Feinway park moment that does not come close to make half of what The Fighter did..... That a really harsh market place for the 45m movie right now.

Edited August 17, 2018 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

Trailer stalkers @Blankments

 

6:

Alpha (The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Isle of Dogs)

 

5:

The House with a Clock in Its Walls (Ready Player One, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, The Meg)

Venom (Black Panther, Game Night, Blockers, Deadpool 2, The Meg)

 

4:

Bumblebee (Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies)

Creed II (Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Skyscraper, Sorry to Bother You, The Spy Who Dumped Me)

Night School (Blockers, Breaking In, Tag, The Spy Who Dumped Me)

 

3:

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Mission: Impossible - Fallout)

Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch (Isle of Dogs, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

First Man (Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Skyscraper, Mission: Impossible - Fallout)

The Happytime Murders (Tag, The First Purge, Sorry to Bother You)

The Hate U Give (Skyscraper, Unfriended: Dark Web, Sorry to Bother You)

Kin (Hereditary, The First Purge, Sicario: Day of the Soldado)

Nobody’s Fool (The First Purge, Unfriended: Dark Web, The Spy Who Dumped Me)

The Nun (Tag, The First Purge, Unfriended: Dark Web)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscraper)

The Predator (The First Purge, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, The Meg)

Searching (Hereditary, Unfriended: Dark Web, The Spy Who Dumped Me)

Smallfoot (Coco, Christopher Robin, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Love, Simon, Ready Player One, Deadpool 2)

 

2 and 1:

 

Crazy Rich Asians (The Spy Who Dumped Me)

Mile 22 (Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

Spoiler

2:

Aquaman (Mission: Impossible – Fallout, The Meg)

A.X.L. (Ant-Man and the Wasp, The Meg)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Unsane, Isle of Dogs)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Isle of Dogs, Avengers: Infinity War)

The Girl in the Spider’s Web (Ocean’s 8, Mission: Impossible - Fallout)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (Christopher Robin, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies)

Halloween (The First Purge, Unfriended: Dark Web)

Mary Poppins Returns (Leave No Trace, Christopher Robin)

Mortal Engines (The Commuter, Skyscraper)

Overlord (Mission: Impossible – Fallout, The Meg)

Peppermint (Ocean’s 8, The Meg)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

Ralph Breaks the Internet (Incredibles 2, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies)

Robin Hood (Mission: Impossible – Fallout, The Spy Who Dumped Me)

A Star Is Born (Ocean’s 8, Sicario: Day of the Soldado)

Wonder Park (Leave No Trace, Christopher Robin)

 

1:

Bad Times at the El Royale (The Spy Who Dumped Me)

Bohemian Rhapsody (Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

The Current War (Wind River)

Dumbo (Christopher Robin)

Hell Fest (Unfriended: Dark Web)

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Incredibles 2)

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (Teen Titans Go! To the Movies)

The Little Stranger (Hereditary)

Little Women (Leave No Trace)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

Operation Finale (Mission: Impossible – Fallout)

Serenity (Tag)

Shazam! (The Meg)

A Simple Favor (The Spy Who Dumped Me)

Support the Girls (Sorry to Bother You)

White Boy Rick (Sicario: Day of the Soldado)

Widows (Ocean’s 😎

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Runtimes without credits and trailer attachments for next week's releases:

 

Searching: 1:38. Attachments unknown.

A.X.L.: 1:29. No attachments.

The Happytime Murders: 1:18. Attachments are Peppermint and Second Act.

 

Happytime Murders has 12 minutes of credits. There's bound to be a post credits scene, but holy fuck, that's a short ass movie.

[Krissykins]

I’m assuming @boxoffice made a mistake on twitter saying Slenderman did $1.24m Thursday? That would be a big increase from Wednesday 

[Boxofficerules]

48 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m assuming @boxoffice made a mistake on twitter saying Slenderman did $1.24m Thursday? That would be a big increase from Wednesday 

 

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 I gave it a 63% drop in the derby.

 

wow, you have no mercy)

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Runtimes without credits and trailer attachments for next week's releases:

 

Searching: 1:38. Attachments unknown.

A.X.L.: 1:29. No attachments.

The Happytime Murders: 1:18. Attachments are Peppermint and Second Act.

 

Happytime Murders has 12 minutes of credits. There's bound to be a post credits scene, but holy fuck, that's a short ass movie.

Searching attachment predictions: White Boy Rick and The Front Runner.

[Eric Duncan]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bad-times-el-royale-first-man-goosebumps-haunted-halloween/

 

El Royale: 11-17M range (13/40)

First Man: 15-25M (20/90)

Goosebumps: 12-17M (14/45)

 

Happytime Murders down 10% (14/36.6)

Kin down 9% (5/12.6)

The Nun down 3% (39/93)

A Star is Born total up 20% (30/140)

Venom OW up 65%, total up 59% (65/135)

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bad-times-el-royale-first-man-goosebumps-haunted-halloween/

 

El Royale: 11-17M range (13/40)

First Man: 15-25M (20/90)

Goosebumps: 12-17M (14/45)

 

Happytime Murders down 10% (14/36.6)

Kin down 9% (5/12.6)

The Nun down 3% (39/93)

A Star is Born total up 20% (30/140)

Venom OW up 65%, total up 59% (65/135)

WOW!  Which poster was the one convincing them to up that estimate?  Seems you were VERY convincing (and I do agree with you:)...

[POTUS 2020]

https://deadline.com/2018/08/crazy-rich-asians-wednesday-opening-box-office-1202446094/

 

UPDATE FRIDAY MIDDAY: As of this minute, Warner Bros. Crazy Rich Asians is set to win the weekend with an estimated $20M, beating the studio’s Chinese co-production The Meg which is looking to hook $18M–$19M.

Not The 'End All Be All' Of Asian American Studio...

 

 

We understand that Crazy Rich Asians is over-indexing on the west coast in Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego. Today will be around $6.3M-$6.5M taking the five day to an estimated $29M.

On the high side, The Meg is -58% and is projected to count a running total of $81.6M by Sunday.

STX’s Mile 22 is now looking at $5M for today, including last night’s previews of $1M, and an estimated weekend of $14M. That will give the Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg collaboration a third place win.

 

Studio 8/Sony’s Alpha is eyeing $3.5M for Friday and an estimated weekend around $10M in 5th.

These are industry estimates.

Related

Edited August 17, 2018 by POTUS

[Jonwo]

It's interesting that BO Pro thinks Venom will break the October record but have a lower total than A Star is Born. 

[WrathOfHan]

August 31 TCs:

 

Operation Finale: 2,300

Kin: 1,500

Ya Veremos: 350

[DAJK]

3.5/10 seems like an Overperformance for Alpha. But ya know what, it can take any win it can get, since apparently it's a pretty good movie. Will be seeing it in 2 and a half hours

[baumer]

So meg's second weekend is going to be higher than most thought it would open to on the first weekend.  

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, POTUS said:

We understand that Crazy Rich Asians is over-indexing on the west coast in Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego

The pre-sales on fandango were really west-coast heavy.

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

So meg's second weekend is going to be higher than most thought it would open to on the first weekend.  

Did most think it'd open under ~19?

[CoolioD1]

peter berg's best movie is Hancock my friends.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Mark Wahlberg won't have to seek a pardon this weekend 

[Barnack]

15 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Did most think it'd open under ~19?

Many did

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-ant-man-wasp-updates-early-look-meg/

8/10/2018

The Meg

$14,000,000

NEW

$37,000,000

NEW

Warner Bros.

 

I see a lot of under 60m for the total dbo prediction in The Meg thread, even Under Valerian speculation

 

I saw has low has 13/30, 15/35, 

 

July 30, was still tracking:

Tracking for a $18-23M opening according to Variety.