Claudio Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Wowowowowow.... Hold your horses right there. Even $1B WW is still not locked and yet you’re already talking about $1.1B WW total. Just please keep your expectation on check. I don’t want another case of someone whining and disappointed if it can’t make it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Beauty and the Beast is a more realistic and appropriate comp for Aladdin in Japan. Frozen is way too big an outlier because of its mega-phenomenon status there. Quote Apr. 22–23 1 $9,755,451 - 773 - $12,620 $12,627,544 1 Apr. 29–30 1 $10,062,048 +3.1% 0 -773 n/a $33,090,260 2 May 6–7 1 $7,938,192 -21.1% 0 - n/a $60,133,821 3 May 13–14 1 $5,078,867 -36.0% 0 - n/a $71,055,180 4 May 20–21 1 $3,905,852 -23.1% 0 - n/a $79,817,552 5 May 27–28 1 $3,152,880 -19.3% 0 - n/a $86,631,091 6 Jun. 3–4 1 $2,753,865 -12.7% 0 - n/a $92,804,098 7 Jun. 10–11 3 $2,593,796 -5.8% 0 - n/a $98,043,353 8 Jun. 17–18 2 $1,987,890 -23.4% 0 - n/a $102,264,780 9 Jun. 24–25 2 $1,860,630 -6.4% 0 - n/a $105,833,390 10 Jul. 1–2 5 $937,996 -49.6% 0 - n/a $108,236,090 11 Jul. 8–9 9 $492,181 -47.5% 0 - n/a $109,342,765 12 Jul. 15–16 13 $246,382 -49.9% 0 - n/a $110,018,652 13 Jul. 22–23 13 $105,976 -57.0% 0 - n/a $110,461,297 14 Jul. 29–30 15 $26,228 -75.3% 0 - n/a $110,615,429 15 Aug. 5–6 14 $16,736 -36.2% 0 - n/a $110,673,867 16 Aug. 12–13 13 $12,780 -23.6% 0 - n/a $110,717,288 17 Aug. 19–20 15 $7,515 -41.2% 0 - n/a $110,755,279 18 Aug. 26–27 16 $4,173 -44.5% 0 - n/a $110,771,132 19 Sept. 2–3 19 $1,086 -74.0% 0 - n/a $110,777,583 20 Sept. 9–10 20 $1,368 +26.0% 0 - n/a $110,780,493 21 Sept. 16–17 19 $1,409 +3.0% 0 - n/a $110,784,258 22 Sept. 23–24 19 $961 -31.8% 0 - n/a $110,787,274 23 Sept. 30–Oct. 1 20 $1,544 +60.7% 0 - n/a $110,790,534 24 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Aladdin is having a great run in Japan, but it won't get within $100 million of Frozen. BATB is still the very clear target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, KP1025 said: Beauty and the Beast is a more realistic and appropriate comp for Aladdin in Japan. Frozen is way too big an outlier because of its mega-phenomenon status there. The pattern is different from Beauty and the beast it had a boost from the golden week and place in that timeline. So comparison wise it was not a fit. Batb was already 60m in 3rd week which means 10M above both Aladdin and Frozen. It opened in Holiday or got a boost from a weekday holidays in 2nd weekend. While Aladdin is currently in line with Frozen not saying it will gross as much but it's on the same tracking number wise on weekends and weekdays. Aladdin has also a much bigger brand then Batb in Japan the realistic expection is well above BATB and also another factor to consider is summer holidays coming up in 7-8th weekend. Aladdin tops BatB cume within 6-7 weeks of it's run imo. Edited June 23, 2019 by Geo1500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said: The pattern is different from Beauty and the beast it had a boost from the golden week and place in that timeline. So comparison wise it was not a fit. Batb was already 60m in 3rd week which means 10M above both Aladdin and Frozen. It opened in Holiday or got a boost from a weekday holidays. While Aladdin is currently in line with Frozen not saying it will gross as much but it's on the same tracking number wise on weekends and weekdays. Aladdin has also a much bigger brand then Batb in Japan the realistic expection is well above BATB and also another factor is summer holidays come up within. Aladdin topping BatB cume within 6-7 weeks of it's run We should wait atleast for 2 more weekends ... picture will be clear ... i already told you ... Aladdin grossed $49.8 M till 3rd weekend .. will definitely close to $56 To $57 M at the end of 3rd week .. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: We should wait atleast for 2 more weekends ... picture will be clear ... i already told you ... Aladdin grossed $49.8 M till 3rd weekend .. will definitely close to $56 To $57 M at the end of 3rd week .. Where do you get that number 49.8M you have repeated several times now? The exchange rate has changed lately so the cume is 50.7M usd It has only dropped 11% and I expect it to come in higher then that around 51m in actuals Edited June 23, 2019 by Geo1500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Geo1500 said: Where do you get that number 49.8M you have repeated several times now? The exchange rate has changed lately so the cume is 50.7M usd It has only dropped 11% and I expect it to come in higher then that around 51m in actuals yes this is updated 3rd weekend gross is $9.3 ... its box office cume is $50.7 M .... Now look at this what Corpse is saying >Aladdin fell harder in its third weekend than in its second weekend, unsurprisingly since third weekend declines are typically bigger than second weekend drops... However, it still managed a single-digit hold based on estimates and possibly achieved a third weekend above ¥1 billion. No big deal, right? If it does come in above ¥1 billion tomorrow, it'll be only the sixth film ever record to have accomplish this feat. Its cumulative total is running a bit behind Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast due to lack of holiday support, but its weekends have been par/better than theirs so far. A total above ¥10 billion ($90 million+) remains likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: yes this is updated 3rd weekend gross is $9.3 ... its box office cume is $50.7 M .... Now look at this what Corpse is saying I read that earlier. I thought -11% but he says -9% which is lower then mine. I said also Regarding BatB not being good comparison due to weekday holidays Edited June 23, 2019 by Geo1500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Just now, Geo1500 said: I read that earlier. I thought -11% but he says -9% which is lower then mine. I said also Regarding BatB not being good comparison due to weekday holidays was just what I was saying You are right about BATB .. movie had Golden week advantage ... but @Omni has also a valid point . it is really tough to get that kind of numbers in summer .. even i did a big mistake about $1.1 B projection (being in the race) for Aladdin .. Will see what happens in coming weeks ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sunny Max said: Will see what happens in coming weeks ... Yes. I would have never thought that the Japanese Box will become the most interesting one this year. I will be tracking exclusively the japanese box office in the next weeks Edited June 24, 2019 by Geo1500 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said: Yes. I would have never thought that the Japanese Box will become the most interesting one this year. I will be tracking exclusively the japanese box in the next weeks yeah ... so much twist & turns ... this year daily Japanese box office tracking will be so interesting ... TLK , Frozen II , TROS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 19mn OS-C-J-K weekend compared to $28mn previous weekend, a great hold of just 32% drop. Competitively The Jungle Book did $14mn in the same set of markets. The cume is $369mn Approx without these three and shall add another $50mn to $420mn. China gonna conclude at $54mn. Korea will go on to $75-85mn Approx as well while Japan at $100mn. This gives $650mn Overseas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 11 hours ago, Geo1500 said: I Have already taken these into consideration which is why I put it 50M below Frozen on it's ending. BTW pets 2 won't be a direct competition and not so popular in Japan. little less then 200M or little above it is a very realistic run for Aladdin. Frozen had 51m in it's 3rd weekend and Aladdin 50.7M if adjusted I believe Aladdin is ahead in admission due to less favorable exchange rate then Frozen but I still see it making less then 40-50M so it won't top frozen imo but as far as going to 200-215M It's within it's realm You DID NOT take those into account if you keep comparing this to Frozen. If a phenomenon like Frozen increases on its 2nd AND 3rd weekend, it means it just postpones by a good number of weeks the time when it starts to drop higher and to lose seats. Can you even do a comparison to a movie whose 12th (!!!!) weekend was basically flat from its OW? You say Aladdin will make 50M less than Frozen - but 30M of that amount come alone from the Golden Week but that Frozen had and that Aladdin won't have. So I guess you expect Aladdin to be still above 5M by the time Lion King opens (=to get single-digit drops EVERY weekend until July), because that's the only way to get to 200 millions. Let alone 214 millions. And it's not just Frozen. Zootopia got a 18x multiplier (still lower than what Aladdin needs to get to your range) after increasing 20% on its 2nd (and 4th, and 5th) weekend. That's what you need if you want to get a multiplier near 20x. Aladdin held very very well, but still dropped. I can't rule out 150M, which would be crazy, but that's it. If you want to keep your expectations high, use Alice in Wonderland as a comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 420 sounds about right for ROW. Unless Japan can deliver even more Aladdin has a great chance to be the highest grossing film to miss 1B 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 So 650 OS + 325 DOM = 975 WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: 19mn OS-C-J-K weekend compared to $28mn previous weekend, a great hold of just 32% drop. Competitively The Jungle Book did $14mn in the same set of markets. The cume is $369mn Approx without these three and shall add another $50mn to $420mn. China gonna conclude at $54mn. Korea will go on to $75-85mn Approx as well while Japan at $100mn. This gives $650mn Overseas. could hit a higher number os ? to give chances for 1 bill ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 1 hour ago, UserHN said: So 650 OS + 325 DOM = 975 WW os 650-660 , and dom 325-340 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 We're doing numbers? Okay, I'll play, 970 is the current target, I would have said 950 a few days ago but now that feels like I'm underestimating Aladdin (a common occurrence here, for perfectly understandable reasons, I don't think anyone saw this coming at this level a month before the film's release, back when I was still crossing my fingers for 600+ million but expecting 500+ WW). So depending on how far it can actually go in Japan, what kind of bump will we see from The Lion King (Aladdin's closest sibling from the Disney animation renaissance) and of course how big a push Disney are willing to give to the eventual sing-along version (it's not a question of IF but WHEN), we can seriously talk about that $1 billion. Personally I think it makes it there, it has too much going for that not to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 1 hour ago, john2000 said: could hit a higher number os ? to give chances for 1 bill ? I think it's doing $340-350 in North America so that $650 million OS could get Aladdin to $1 billion still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, AlexMA said: I think it's doing $340-350 in North America so that $650 million OS could get Aladdin to $1 billion still. os could hit 660-670 depending from japan and south korea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...