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ALADDIN | 695.1 M overseas ● 1050.7 M worldwide

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:winomg::winomg:

 

Wowowowowow.... Hold your horses right there. Even $1B WW is still not locked and yet you’re already talking about $1.1B WW total. Just please keep your expectation on check. I don’t want another case of someone whining and disappointed if it can’t make it.

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Beauty and the Beast is a more realistic and appropriate comp for Aladdin in Japan. Frozen is way too big an outlier because of its mega-phenomenon status there. 

 

Quote
Apr. 22–23 1 $9,755,451 - 773 - $12,620 $12,627,544 1
Apr. 29–30 1 $10,062,048 +3.1% 0 -773 n/a $33,090,260 2
May 6–7 1 $7,938,192 -21.1% 0 - n/a $60,133,821 3
May 13–14 1 $5,078,867 -36.0% 0 - n/a $71,055,180 4
May 20–21 1 $3,905,852 -23.1% 0 - n/a $79,817,552 5
May 27–28 1 $3,152,880 -19.3% 0 - n/a $86,631,091 6
Jun. 3–4 1 $2,753,865 -12.7% 0 - n/a $92,804,098 7
Jun. 10–11 3 $2,593,796 -5.8% 0 - n/a $98,043,353 8
Jun. 17–18 2 $1,987,890 -23.4% 0 - n/a $102,264,780 9
Jun. 24–25 2 $1,860,630 -6.4% 0 - n/a $105,833,390 10
Jul. 1–2 5 $937,996 -49.6% 0 - n/a $108,236,090 11
Jul. 8–9 9 $492,181 -47.5% 0 - n/a $109,342,765 12
Jul. 15–16 13 $246,382 -49.9% 0 - n/a $110,018,652 13
Jul. 22–23 13 $105,976 -57.0% 0 - n/a $110,461,297 14
Jul. 29–30 15 $26,228 -75.3% 0 - n/a $110,615,429 15
Aug. 5–6 14 $16,736 -36.2% 0 - n/a $110,673,867 16
Aug. 12–13 13 $12,780 -23.6% 0 - n/a $110,717,288 17
Aug. 19–20 15 $7,515 -41.2% 0 - n/a $110,755,279 18
Aug. 26–27 16 $4,173 -44.5% 0 - n/a $110,771,132 19
Sept. 2–3 19 $1,086 -74.0% 0 - n/a $110,777,583 20
Sept. 9–10 20 $1,368 +26.0% 0 - n/a $110,780,493 21
Sept. 16–17 19 $1,409 +3.0% 0 - n/a $110,784,258 22
Sept. 23–24 19 $961 -31.8% 0 - n/a $110,787,274 23
Sept. 30–Oct. 1 20 $1,544 +60.7% 0 - n/a $110,790,534 24

 

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1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

Beauty and the Beast is a more realistic and appropriate comp for Aladdin in Japan. Frozen is way too big an outlier because of its mega-phenomenon status there. 

 

 

 

The pattern is different from Beauty and the beast it had a boost from the golden week and place in that timeline. So comparison wise it was not a fit. Batb was already 60m in 3rd week which means 10M above both Aladdin and Frozen. It opened in Holiday or got a boost from a weekday holidays in 2nd weekend. 

 

While Aladdin is currently in line with Frozen not saying it will gross as much but it's on the same tracking number wise on weekends and weekdays. 

 

Aladdin has also a much bigger brand then Batb in Japan the realistic expection is well above BATB and also another factor to consider is summer holidays coming up in 7-8th weekend. Aladdin tops BatB cume within 6-7 weeks of it's run imo.

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3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

The pattern is different from Beauty and the beast it had a boost from the golden week and place in that timeline. So comparison wise it was not a fit. Batb was already 60m in 3rd week which means 10M above both Aladdin and Frozen. It opened in Holiday or got a boost from a weekday holidays. 

 

While Aladdin is currently in line with Frozen not saying it will gross as much but it's on the same tracking number wise on weekends and weekdays. 

 

Aladdin has also a much bigger brand then Batb in Japan the realistic expection is well above BATB and also another factor is summer holidays come up within. Aladdin topping BatB cume within 6-7 weeks of it's run

We should wait atleast for 2 more weekends  ... picture will be clear ...

 

i already told you ... Aladdin grossed $49.8 M till 3rd weekend .. will definitely close to $56 To $57 M at the end of 3rd week  .. 

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4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

We should wait atleast for 2 more weekends  ... picture will be clear ...

 

i already told you ... Aladdin grossed $49.8 M till 3rd weekend .. will definitely close to $56 To $57 M at the end of 3rd week  .. 

 

Where do you get that number 49.8M you have repeated several times now? The exchange rate has changed lately so the cume is 50.7M usd

 

It has only dropped 11% and I expect it to come in higher then that around 51m in actuals 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

Where do you get that number 49.8M you have repeated several times now? The exchange rate has changed lately so the cume is 50.7M usd

 

It has only dropped 11% and I expect it to come in higher then that around 51m in actuals 

 

 

 

yes this is updated

 

3rd weekend gross is $9.3 ... its box office cume is $50.7 M ....

 

Now look at this what Corpse is saying 

 

>Aladdin fell harder in its third weekend than in its second weekend, unsurprisingly since third weekend declines are typically bigger than second weekend drops... However, it still managed a single-digit hold based on estimates and possibly achieved a third weekend above ¥1 billion. No big deal, right? ;) If it does come in above ¥1 billion tomorrow, it'll be only the sixth film ever record to have accomplish this feat. Its cumulative total is running a bit behind Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast due to lack of holiday support, but its weekends have been par/better than theirs so far. A total above ¥10 billion ($90 million+) remains likely.
 

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7 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

yes this is updated

 

3rd weekend gross is $9.3 ... its box office cume is $50.7 M ....

 

Now look at this what Corpse is saying 

 

 

 

I read that earlier. I thought -11% but he says -9% which is lower then mine. I said also Regarding BatB not being good comparison due to weekday holidays

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Just now, Geo1500 said:

 

I read that earlier. I thought -11% but he says -9% which is lower then mine. I said also Regarding BatB not being good comparison due to weekday holidays was just what I was saying

You are right about BATB .. movie had Golden week advantage ... but @Omni has also a valid point . it is really tough to get that kind of numbers in summer .. 

 

even i did a big mistake about $1.1 B projection (being in the race) for Aladdin ..

 

Will see what happens in coming weeks ... 

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2 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Will see what happens in coming weeks ... 

Yes.

 

I would have never thought that the Japanese Box will become the most interesting one this year. I will be tracking exclusively the japanese box office in the next weeks

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Yes.

 

I would have never thought that the Japanese Box will become the most interesting one this year. I will be tracking exclusively the japanese box in the next weeks

 

 

yeah ... so much twist & turns ... this year daily Japanese box office tracking will be so interesting ... TLK , Frozen II , TROS 

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19mn OS-C-J-K weekend compared to $28mn previous weekend, a great hold of just 32% drop.

 

Competitively The Jungle Book did $14mn in the same set of markets. 

 

The cume is $369mn Approx without these three and shall add another $50mn to $420mn.

 

China gonna conclude at $54mn. Korea will go on to $75-85mn Approx as well while Japan at $100mn.

 

This gives $650mn Overseas. 

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11 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I Have already taken these into consideration which is why I put it 50M below Frozen on it's ending. BTW pets 2 won't be a direct competition and not so popular in Japan. little less then 200M or little above it is a very realistic run for Aladdin. 

 

Frozen had 51m in it's 3rd weekend and Aladdin 50.7M if adjusted I believe Aladdin is ahead in admission due to less favorable exchange rate then Frozen but I still see it making less then 40-50M so it won't top frozen imo but as far as going to 200-215M It's within it's realm

You DID NOT take those into account if you keep comparing this to Frozen. If a phenomenon like Frozen increases on its 2nd AND 3rd weekend, it means it just postpones by a good number of weeks the time when it starts to drop higher and to lose seats. Can you even do a comparison to a movie whose 12th (!!!!) weekend was basically flat from its OW?

You say Aladdin will make 50M less than Frozen - but 30M of that amount come alone from the Golden Week but that Frozen had and that Aladdin won't have. So I guess you expect Aladdin to be still above 5M by the time Lion King opens (=to get single-digit drops EVERY weekend until July), because that's the only way to get to 200 millions. Let alone 214 millions.

And it's not just Frozen. Zootopia got a 18x multiplier (still lower than what Aladdin needs to get to your range) after increasing 20% on its 2nd (and 4th, and 5th) weekend. That's what you need if you want to get a multiplier near 20x. Aladdin held very very well, but still dropped. I can't rule out 150M, which would be crazy, but that's it. If you want to keep your expectations high, use Alice in Wonderland as a comparison.

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

19mn OS-C-J-K weekend compared to $28mn previous weekend, a great hold of just 32% drop.

 

Competitively The Jungle Book did $14mn in the same set of markets. 

 

The cume is $369mn Approx without these three and shall add another $50mn to $420mn.

 

China gonna conclude at $54mn. Korea will go on to $75-85mn Approx as well while Japan at $100mn.

 

This gives $650mn Overseas. 

could hit a higher number os ? to give chances for 1 bill ?

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We're doing numbers? Okay, I'll play, 970 is the current target, I would have said 950 a few days ago but now that feels like I'm underestimating Aladdin (a common occurrence here, for perfectly understandable reasons, I don't think anyone saw this coming at this level a month before the film's release, back when I was still crossing my fingers for 600+ million but expecting 500+ WW). So depending on how far it can actually go in Japan, what kind of bump will we see from The Lion King (Aladdin's closest sibling from the Disney animation renaissance) and of course how big a push Disney are willing to give to the eventual sing-along version (it's not a question of IF but WHEN), we can seriously talk about that $1 billion. Personally I think it makes it there, it has too much going for that not to happen.

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

could hit a higher number os ? to give chances for 1 bill ?

I think it's doing $340-350 in North America so that $650 million OS could get Aladdin to $1 billion still.

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