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2 minutes ago, Omni said:

Needs a greater hold next week, which looks rather empty (other than Pets opening in a few countries). -33% against TS4 is very good, but it's still above 40% when you consider the OS-Jap-SK markets. It needs: 9M dom, 12M from the OS-Jap-SK markets, 8 from Japan and 6 from SK. 35M overall weekend for an 875M total. Then Spider Man will hurt it and LK will kill its late legs.

Also unlike japan (or in a lesser way) once Aladdin slows down in SK it will crash and burn, so SK is less reliable for late legs because 2 strong movies opening 1 week apart from each other could mean the end of Aladdin. In Japan competition is less of a problem, dvd releases onthe other hand are 😛

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Just now, pepsa said:

Also unlike japan (or in a lesser way) once Aladdin slows down in SK it will crash and burn, so SK is less reliable for late legs because 2 strong movies opening 1 week apart from each other could mean the end of Aladdin. In Japan competition is less of a problem, dvd releases onthe other hand are 😛

Ha! Right, what Disney did to Frozen still bothers me.

 

Yeah, the movie can get to 1B only if next weekend it can get close enough to needing a 4x multiplier to reach 1B, so it can rely on DOM and Japan to balance the steeper drops it will start to face in many markets.

Also, everyone should keep in mind that in 3 weeks this movie will be dead. Lots of releases in Japan + The Lion King.

 

Jungle Book is a more realistic target.

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Just now, Omni said:

Ha! Right, what Disney did to Frozen still bothers me.

 

Yeah, the movie can get to 1B only if next weekend it can get close enough to needing a 4x multiplier to reach 1B, so it can rely on DOM and Japan to balance the steeper drops it will start to face in many markets.

Also, everyone should keep in mind that in 3 weeks this movie will be dead. Lots of releases in Japan + The Lion King.

 

Jungle Book is a more realistic target.

Ok. So I won't expect a billion for this now. Just keeping my expectations in check. Lol. Oh boy, TJB number is so painful to look at. It was soooo close to a billion.

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6 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Ok. So I won't expect a billion for this now. Just keeping my expectations in check. Lol. Oh boy, TJB number is so painful to look at. It was soooo close to a billion.

If you think TJB (2016)’s $966M was so close....then check TLK (1994)’s $968M & HP:SS’s $975M. They’re also under $1B WW, and Hollywood didn’t even give re-releases wide enough to get there. Though TLK did get a wide 3D-release.

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10 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Aladdin sequel would definitely be something Disney is discussing now. I haven't seen any of the DTV Aladdin sequels are they any good?

King of Thieves is as it competently combines the Ali Baba and The Forty Thieves story with Aladdin, with elements of King Midas thrown in. It works very well as a Middle Eastern equivalent of a Pirates-y swashbuckling adventure.

 

Return of Jafar OTOH is a hot mess that they should avoid. Would be more interested if the second movie involves Shirabad, Jasmine's mother's kingdom in the film (hinted to be in South Asia), and then end the trilogy with King of Thieves.

 

I want to point out though that there were many storylines from the spin-off television show that were far superior to the DTV sequel movies. That's another source they could look to for inspiration when it comes to the live action sequels.

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14 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

If you think TJB (2016)’s $966M was so close....then check TLK (1994)’s $968M & HP:SS’s $975M. They’re also under $1B WW, and Hollywood didn’t even give re-releases wide enough to get there. Though TLK did get a wide 3D-release.

I think Favreau is also making TJB2. Maybe Disney can re-release it the year TJB2 opens. Although I doubt if it can get the 34M needed to cross the billie.

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3 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

King of Thieves is as it competently combines the Ali Baba and The Forty Thieves story with Aladdin, with elements of King Midas thrown in. It works very well as a Middle Eastern equivalent of a Pirates-y swashbuckling adventure.

 

Return of Jafar OTOH is a hot mess that they should avoid. Would be more interested if the second movie involves Shirabad, Jasmine's mother's kingdom in the film (hinted to be in South Asia), and then end the trilogy with King of Thieves.

 

I want to point out though that there were many storylines from the spin-off television show that were far superior to the DTV sequel movies. That's another source they could look to for inspiration when it comes to the live action sequels.

What about Iago? Since he did switch side to be more protagonistic in that movie.

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20 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

What about Iago? Since he did switch side to be more protagonistic in that movie.

Yeah, I forgot that that was the movie where Iago switched sides. But considering it was just a move to get Gilbert Gottfried to be a part of the tv show (since they were losing Williams), I don't think it would matter if we never saw Iago in the live action verse again (assuming Will is going to return for the sequels, along with Naseem Pedrad's Dalia who wasn't a part of the OG animated gang).

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

1 billie is happening, isn't it? if it sustained TS4 OW this well then yeah, we can expect great holds to continue. 

 

The chances are good due to Japan it has currently 100M locked and could go far above that into little less then 150-170m and could go higher then that if it breaks out Frozen like which is still on track to do and if it turns out like that we could be looking at 1.1B instead

Edited by Geo1500
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2 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

The chances are good due to Japan it has currently 100M locked and could go far above that into little less then 150-170m and could go higher then that if it breaks out Frozen like which is still on track to do and if it turns out like that we could be looking at 1.1B instead

:ohmygod:

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10 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

The chances are good due to Japan it has currently 100M locked and could go far above that into little less then 150-170m and could go higher then that if it breaks out Frozen like which is still on track to do and if it turns out like that we could be looking at 1.1B instead

Both Japan & Korea breaking-out .... good chance for $1 B ... even $1.1 is in the race ... 

 

definitely the way movie is trending $100 M is done in Japan ... could go far above 

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Both Japan & Korea breaking-out .... good chance for $1 B ... even $1.1 is in the race ... 

 

definitely the way movie is trending $100 M is done in Japan ... could go far above 

 

It's currently on track with Frozen in it's 3rd week even tho I don't see it doing 250M in japan like Frozen did but could manage little less then 200M or little above it. 

 

iD6u70c.png

 

The only direct competition that can effect dosen't premier before august 7th and that is the lion king. It has plenty of time to monopolize. The run in Japan will be long and will be cracking 2 to 4M per weekend it's 14th or 15th weekend.

 

If Aladdin gets lets say 190-200M in Japan 

 

810 + 150 = 960M + 60 DOM + 80M OS = 1.1B 

 

Or if Japan goes upto 215M then we got 1.115

Edited by Geo1500

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29 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Both Japan & Korea breaking-out .... good chance for $1 B ... even $1.1 is in the race ...

1.1B is as likely as Melissa McCarthy playing Jasmine in the (hypothetical) sequel.

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1 minute ago, Omni said:

1.1B is as likely as Melissa McCarthy playing Jasmine in the (hypothetical) sequel.

Are you Kidding ...?  :D 

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4 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

It's currently on track with Frozen in it's 3rd week even tho I don't see it doing 250M in japan like Frozen did but could manage little less then 200M or little above it. 

 

iD6u70c.png

 

The only direct competition that can effect dosen't premier before august 7th and that is the lion king. It has plenty of time to monopolize. 

 

If Aladdin gets lets say 190-200M in Japan 

 

810 + 150 = 960M + 60 DOM + 80M OS = 1.1B 

 

Or if Japan goes upto 215 then we got 1.115

yeah will be tough to match Frozen (that was legendary run) ...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

It's currently on track with Frozen in it's 3rd week even tho I don't see it doing 250M in japan like Frozen did but could manage little less then 200M or little above it. 

 

The only direct competition that can effect dosen't premier before august 7th and that is the lion king. It has plenty of time to monopolize. 

 

If Aladdin gets lets say 190-200M in Japan 

 

810 + 150 = 960M + 60 DOM + 80M OS = 1.1B 

 

Or if Japan goes upto 215 then we got 1.115

You clearly don't know how the Japanese box office works.

Frozen got the advantage of Golden Week later in its run (while Aladdin's workdays are less relevant), and didn't face major competition for weeks and weeks. It also INCREASED on both weekend 2 and weekend 3, while Aladdin dropped on both weekends. In Japan, 2 moderate drops in a row = great legs (above 10x probably) while 2 increases in a row = phenomenon.

Also, in mid-July the movie will start to face big theater losses and competition, as it always happens when summer starts. Not to mention Pets 2 is released before The Lion King.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Omni said:

You clearly don't know how the Japanese box office works.

Frozen got the advantage of Golden Week later in its run (while Aladdin's workdays are less relevant), and didn't face major competition for weeks and weeks. It also INCREASED on both weekend 2 and weekend 3, while Aladdin dropped on both weekends. In Japan, 2 moderate drops in a row = great legs (above 10x probably) while 2 increases in a row = phenomenon.

Also, in mid-July the movie will start to face big theater losses and competition, as it always happens when summer starts. Not to mention Pets 2 is released before The Lion King.

 

I Have already taken these into consideration which is why I put it 50M below Frozen on it's ending. BTW pets 2 won't be a direct competition and not so popular in Japan. little less then 200M or little above it is a very realistic run for Aladdin. 

 

Frozen had 51m in it's 3rd weekend and Aladdin 50.7M if adjusted I believe Aladdin is ahead in admission due to less favorable exchange rate then Frozen but I still see it making less then 40-50M so it won't top frozen imo but as far as going to 200-215M It's within it's realm

Edited by Geo1500

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I Have already taken these into consideration which is why I put it 50M below Frozen on it's ending. BTW pets 2 won't be a direct competition and not so popular in Japan. little less then 200M or little above it is a very realistic run for Aladdin. 

 

Frozen had 51m in it's 3rd weekend and Aladdin 50.7M if adjusted I believe Aladdin is ahead in admission due to less favorable exchange rate then Frozen but I still see it making less then 40-50M so it won't top frozen imo but as far as going to 200-215M It's within it's realm

that's $50.7 M of Frozen is for 3 weeks Total ... 

 

 

Edited by Sunny Max

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Omni said:

You clearly don't know how the Japanese box office works.

Frozen got the advantage of Golden Week later in its run (while Aladdin's workdays are less relevant), and didn't face major competition for weeks and weeks. It also INCREASED on both weekend 2 and weekend 3, while Aladdin dropped on both weekends. In Japan, 2 moderate drops in a row = great legs (above 10x probably) while 2 increases in a row = phenomenon.

Also, in mid-July the movie will start to face big theater losses and competition, as it always happens when summer starts. Not to mention Pets 2 is released before The Lion King.

till 3rd weekend ... Aladdin grossed $50.7 M ... Movie might do more than $100 M in Japan (@Geo1500 is saying $200 M in Japan which is not possible) ... SA , Europe still trending very good ..

 

this is why i said $1.1 B is in the race (of course chances are slim) ... this is just an estimate ... 

Edited by Sunny Max

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