TOY STORY IV | 639.4 M overseas ● 1073.4 M worldwide

[VanillaSkies]

4 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Wouldn't bet on Germany that much, its opening on the same weekend as Hollywood (next weekend) and TLK after opening rather disappointing seems to be holding better and I think there is a chance for all three to be within about 10% next weekend and I think TLK will hurt TS4's opening. As TLK might end with around a 5x and a final gross of about $45-50M. Big plus point is that next weekend the weather is supposed to be worse again.

right now I'd could see a total as low as 12M.

 

 

And August isn't a good release date that is like prime dumping ground, summer holidays are over but still strong hold overs not good for new movies, often there will be a couple of hot days at the end of August, early September and no holidays to soften the blow. And it's not the normal Pixar slot, that is beginning of October because on the 3rd there is unity day in Germany and the fall holidays are in october in all of October, that helps legs and I know that prime release window is always the summer but in Germany the off months October to March tend to be stronger than summer.

In my eyes this shows no confidence in the movie, why would you open it in the middle of August and not let it start the final quarter of the year and the fall holiday period.

 

Except TS4 has opened in 90% of markets now, and we therefore have evidence that it is performing similarly to TS3 in almost all market (not many 4th movies in franchises can say that!), so it's hard to think it will deviate too much considering this. 

You could be right it will make no more than 12m, but I wouldn't bet on it given it's performance in all other markets compared to past films in the franchise. 

[Omni]

Doesn't matter. It will become the #4 WW animated movie of all time with or without Germany.

[Taruseth]

8 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Except TS4 has opened in 90% of markets now, and we therefore have evidence that it is performing similarly to TS3 in almost all market (not many 4th movies in franchises can say that!), so it's hard to think it will deviate too much considering this. 

You could be right it will make no more than 12m, but I wouldn't bet on it given it's performance in all other markets compared to past films in the franchise. 

That's not really correct, ER are making it drop in Europe, the only somewhat useful comp for Germany, not that for TS movies it matters how they perform here.

 

TS3 -> TS4

UK 115M -> 75M

France: 41M -> 30M

Netherlands: 6M -> 4M

Belgium: 5.5M -> 3.3M

Spain: 33M -> 23M

Most of these can be explained by dropping ER and a lower 3D share, in admissions its probably flat but in Germany it will face the same problem of lower 3D share and the significantly worse ER.

Which WW obviously is erased by the insane increases in South America and even the increase in the US.

 

 

[Omni]

Add Italy, from 17M dollars to 7M dollars.

[pepsa]

58 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

That's not really correct, ER are making it drop in Europe, the only somewhat useful comp for Germany, not that for TS movies it matters how they perform here.

 

TS3 -> TS4

UK 115M -> 75M

France: 41M -> 30M

Netherlands: 6M -> 4M

Belgium: 5.5M -> 3.3M

Spain: 33M -> 23M

Most of these can be explained by dropping ER and a lower 3D share, in admissions its probably flat but in Germany it will face the same problem of lower 3D share and the significantly worse ER.

Which WW obviously is erased by the insane increases in South America and even the increase in the US.

 

 

The netherlands and Belgium will get very close to the 3rd one. You should look the run up from TS4 and TS3 they are super fun. Lot's of weekend increases, flat weekend and some 30% drop and then jumping up again. Honestly I wish there was a tracking for my country 😛 

 

I would guss that the Netherlands will end up at $4.5m maybe $5m. Belgium is going over $4m. 

[Purple Minion]

 

[pepsa]

Down almost nothing from last weekend, the weekday drop was bigger (because of the new competition from last week + LA winter holidays being over. The only bad drop it had this week was DOM. Looking to cross 1B on Wed  most likely Thursday the latest. 

 

So my first prediction from 3 weeks ago was correct with thinking Wed and Thursday.

Also this weeks drops bodes well for $1.1B.

[Omni]

It definitely does. Still some markets to opens, August legs in NA (hoping for a 25% drop next weekend), and 30+ from Japan alone.

 

Never thought TS4 would beat its predecessor worldwide. And with the usual absence of help from China, too.

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, Omni said:

It definitely does. Still some markets to opens, August legs in NA (hoping for a 25% drop next weekend), and 30+ from Japan alone.

 

Never thought TS4 would beat its predecessor worldwide. And with the usual absence of help from China, too.

Yep it did crazy good, I mean it will beat I2 OS with a smaller China number so honestly that great for TS4.

Also DOM isn't going to be as bad as the estimates. It will probably go up by 300k, higher Fri jump wil result in to bigger sat number and sunday will be better as well. (I guess).

 

Next week it will lose a lot of screens again I guess. So I hope it doesn't start dropping to hard. 

I am hoping for an increase next week OS-Japan because of the german OW it should let it go over this weekend by quite a bit. 

Edited August 11, 2019 by pepsa

[Omni]

Yeah, didn't realize there were so many openers next weekend.

Next weekend it will definitely have a double-digit OS weekend and an OS total of 600+. Gonna make 15+ from Japan alone.

[MeowwoeM]

It opened in Poland this weekend, which is the reason it didn't drop.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, MeowwoeM said:

It opened in Poland this weekend, which is the reason it didn't drop.

If i had to guess I would say 1.4m for the new markets Poland and 3 litle east european countries. This would mean a $8.3m weekend compared to last weeks $10.4m ( a 20% drop weekend to weekend) pretty sure it held flast in a lot of european countries with increases in some. 

[Juby]

OW in Poland wasn't great (140-160k admission). Not much help from us, sorry.

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, Juby said:

OW in Poland wasn't great (140-160k admission). Not much help from us, sorry.

Don't you worry poland is playing the long game 😛 

Also it's not to far from TS3 OW, TS3 => $1m, TS4 => $800K

Edited August 12, 2019 by pepsa

[Fullbuster]

Glad Toy Story 4 is not done yet!

 

Crazy not to have global releases (= everywhere) even in 2019.

 

At least $1B is done All hail the toys!

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Disney should be happy that Toy Story 4 is yet another crowd-pleasing $1B+ WW-grosser and their second animated film this year to do it so far.

[charlie Jatinder]

I see TS4 doing $520mn OS-Japan.

Japan will be around $110mn per Japan thread. Add in there $30mn from Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and few others.

 

Nice little $660mn overseas.

 

Domestic is most probably heading for $445mn finish.

 

That said $1105mn Approx closing.

 

[keysersoze123]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$421,276,037	42.1%
+ Foreign:	$579,900,000	57.9%
= Worldwide:	$1,001,176,037

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Congratulations to TS4 hitting $1B WW.

[Purple Minion]

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1162037232250716160