TOY STORY IV | 639.4 M overseas ● 1073.4 M worldwide

[Juby]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Markets remaining.

 

Poland	9 August 2019

 

I am still waiting to see it. . . 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Juby

[druv10]

Up 600K from estimates.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$395,628,506	43.1%
+ Foreign:	$522,894,942	56.9%
= Worldwide:	$918,523,448

[titanic2187]

I just realised that how poor TS4 performed in China that even Argentina, a far smaller country generate the similar gross to China's 

[pepsa]

By 28/07 TS4 had amassed $919.1m. DOM is looking at a $13.55m week. Japan is doing a $8m midweek, and about a $4.75m so that would mean $12.75m full week. OS-Japan did $23.2m last week a drop between 35% to 40% seems likely with Hobs and Shaw releasing OS. That would mean between $13.9m - $15.1m. Add $0.5m from Honkong's week. 

 

This would mean a total around $959.8m - $961.m.

Next week it should do $9.4m DOM, $9.1m in Japan and 10.5m OS-J. Total => $989.5m.

Hitting $1B should happen Wednesday or Thursday the 14/15 August. 

[Taruseth]

49 minutes ago, pepsa said:

By 28/07 TS4 had amassed $919.1m. DOM is looking at a $13.55m week. Japan is doing a $8m midweek, and about a $4.75m so that would mean $12.75m full week. OS-Japan did $23.2m last week a drop between 35% to 40% seems likely with Hobs and Shaw releasing OS. That would mean between $13.9m - $15.1m. Add $0.5m from Honkong's week. 

 

This would mean a total around $959.8m - $961.m.

Next week it should do $9.4m DOM, $9.1m in Japan and 10.5m OS-J. Total => $989.5m.

Hitting $1B should happen Wednesday or Thursday the 14/15 August. 

So either the day before opening or on the opening day in Germany, not that Germany will add much.

[Purple Minion]

TS4 is now the most attended movie ever in Mexico, passing Endgame. And it still has a bit of room to grow.

 

 

[titanic2187]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$410,050,743	42.7%
+ Foreign:	$549,200,000	57.3%
= Worldwide:	$959,250,743

 

ADDED about 26m since last week overseas

Edited August 4, 2019 by titanic2187

[Jiffy]

Hmm its OS weekend was down like 50% right? I wonder what caused it to take a hit? Screen loss?

[Geo1500]

8 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Hmm its OS weekend was down like 50% right? I wonder what caused it to take a hit? Screen loss?

TLK, Hobbs and Shaw + screen losses. It's gonna take a bigger hit next weekend TLK opens in Japan + other openings in foreign markets

Edited August 4, 2019 by Geo1500

[pepsa]

So bit under my estimate, but it will add 100k maybe 200k domestic and probably a $0.5m OS. 

This would mean almost $960m, this week it should have a great hold, but with a big drop in japan because of TLK.

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, Jiffy said:

Hmm its OS weekend was down like 50% right? I wonder what caused it to take a hit? Screen loss?

More like 40% right, maybe the weekend was harsher because Hobbs and Shaw, also see my above post  it only came in 0.8m below my est and actuals will go up.

 

EDIT: the weekend drop was indeed harsh, weekdays made it a lot softer. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by pepsa

[pepsa]

So Japan came in a lot below my estimate (sorry for the error). It seems like it did $11m week to week that $1.75m less than I tought it did. (Last week it did $14.2m so Japan was down 22.5% week to week but down 32.8% over the weekend (in 70% of it usual locations so this might change a bit) the big point still stand the weekend hold wasn't super the weekdays where good.

 

So OS-Japan it added $16.2m, $0.6m from HK so $14.8m is what it really added. Last week OS-japan was $23.2m, we can expect this week to go up 400k or so and I will use that number. So $15.7m, and this would mean it's down  32% from last week. Pretty good knowing Hobbs and shaw had pretty good od's in LA, 

 

So Hobbs and Shaw only has France and Belgium left as major markets where TS4 is still making good money. This would mean next weeks drop should be a lot better because from this point onwards it won't face any big competition accept local movies and maybe a suprise hit. 

 

For TS4's weekend number it was down 33% in Japan (estimated) and OS-Japan was down 47.1% this is very hard and @Jiffy was right this is a bit harsh.

Next weekend it will take a hit in Japan probably around 35%, if the weather isn't super nice like this weekend (corpse said he tought the sunny weather made the drops harder by 5%-10% last week so if the weather is normal again movies should rebouwnd but would be hit by TLK's OD). Excluding Japan next weeks Weekend drop should be around 20%, week days will be hit harder and those should drop 40% so overall my guess would be a 33% drop OS-Japan. To $10.2m. Japan will drop 32% to a $7.5m week, softer during the week but harsher during the weekend. 

 

Domesticly I think a 30% drop week to week seems doable, this week it made 13.8m using a $7.35m weekend so a 30% would mean $9.65m.

All this would lead to $27.5m extra WW. Using my estimated actual numbers this would mean it gets to  $987.3m world wide and with Obon hitting that week Japan should have great weekdays, rest over OS and DOM should still be going strong (last week that most schools are out I think). Maybe my earlier guess of Wednesday/Thursday is a bit early but it will pass it a 100% in 2 weeks. 

 

Spoiler

For those still intrested 'or myself because I love doing this lol':

 

Japan will do 6m from Mon to Thursday during Obon. Brings the total to $993.3m, Domistic shoud do about 3.3m during those weekdays that brings us to $996.6m OS-Japan should add $3.2m during those days and get it up to $999,8m. It will also open in Germany on thursday so that will add the needed $0.2m so that would mean Thursday is the day it will cross. As most people who know me know I am always a bit on the optimistic side, especialy for movies I like so let's Friday or Sat is much more likely and a 100% by sunday  . 

 

Thanks for reading my strange long rants I can only admire your patience 😛 

 

BIG WARNING I AM ESTIMATING THE ACTUALS SO THOSE ARE JUST PULLED STRAIGHT OUT OF MY ASS. I just based it on previous weeks and lowered it a bit. I will update this post tomorrow when actuals come in and change them with the correct numbers. 

Edited August 5, 2019 by pepsa

[KP1025]

@pepsa

 

Do you think it has enough left to pass TS3 WW? 

[pepsa]

7 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

@pepsa

 

Do you think it has enough left to pass TS3 WW? 

Asumming it makes $100m in Japan. It follows I2 drops domistic from now on (it has been dropping better so far).

OS-Japan making 23m more, and all the markets it has left doing $30m (They did a bit over $40m for TS3) it should end with $1085m $1.085B. So has a $18m margin for error. I would say 70% - 80% chance it goes over. A lot should go wrong for it do miss TS3.

[MeowwoeM]

4 hours ago, pepsa said:

Asumming it makes $100m in Japan. It follows I2 drops domistic from now on (it has been dropping better so far).

OS-Japan making 23m more, and all the markets it has left doing $30m (They did a bit over $40m for TS3) it should end with $1085m $1.085B. So has a $18m margin for error. I would say 70% - 80% chance it goes over. A lot should go wrong for it do miss TS3.

$23M OS-Japan is lowballing (40% drop). Also, Incredibles 2 grossed ~$50M from the markets where TS4 didn't open yet. Im predicting $1.11B. 

Edited August 5, 2019 by MeowwoeM

[pepsa]

6 hours ago, MeowwoeM said:

$23M OS-Japan is lowballing (40% drop). Also, Incredibles 2 grossed ~$50M from the markets where TS4 didn't open yet. Im predicting $1.11B. 

I hope it does, and it totaly could. Just keeping it pretty low so I don't over shoot.

For my OS-Japan I just used a 35% drop then 50% drops. Because most of it's money is made in europe it should hold a lot better than this through out the summer but in markets like the Netherlands and Belgium you never know when they are going to drop a movie. (In the netherlands and belgium Animation movies have great drops and than all of suden they can fall off hard). 

 

And like I said 5 post ago my range is $1.1B with a $20m error margin.

I am just staking the more caution side of the coin untill we know how it starts in Germany. 

[KP1025]

OS actuals went up by $1 million.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$410,249,874	42.7%
+ Foreign:	$550,201,018	57.3%
= Worldwide:	$960,450,892

 

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

OS actuals went up by $1 million.

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$410,249,874	42.7%
+ Foreign:	$550,201,018	57.3%
= Worldwide:	$960,450,892

 

A lot better than my $0.4m est, makes the weekend drop a  bit more bareable

[VanillaSkies]

On 7/28/2019 at 1:16 PM, keysersoze123 said:

still has Germany and Scandinavian markets with good release date. it will have good runs there. Japan still has significant mileage and Obon week in August. Definitely making more than 600m.

 

Markets remaining.

 

Estonia	2 August 2019
Latvia	2 August 2019
Slovakia	8 August 2019
Lithuania	9 August 2019
Poland	9 August 2019
Germany	15 August 2019
Denmark	29 August 2019
Sweden	30 August 2019
Finland	6 September 2019
Norway	6 September 2019
Madagascar	20 November 2019
Togo	15 December 2019
Tunisia	9 January 2020

Oh yeah, 600m is a lock at this point, and more likely that it will make 650m.
It's been holding very strongly in Japan despite competition, and it's OBON festival this week. That market alone still has 30-40 million left in it, which would bring it's currently overseas to about 590. It's still making money in other markets as well, and then ofcourse still has quiet a few more markets to open in. 

Comparing it to TS3, that film made 17m in Germany, almost 4m in Poland, 5m is Sweden, 5m+ in Finland/Norway... There is still a lot more money to come in both internationally as well as domestically. Such a great late run for this. 

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Oh yeah, 600m is a lock at this point, and more likely that it will make 650m.
It's been holding very strongly in Japan despite competition, and it's OBON festival this week. That market alone still has 30-40 million left in it, which would bring it's currently overseas to about 590. It's still making money in other markets as well, and then ofcourse still has quiet a few more markets to open in. 

Comparing it to TS3, that film made 17m in Germany, almost 4m in Poland, 5m is Sweden, 5m+ in Finland/Norway... There is still a lot more money to come in both internationally as well as domestically. Such a great late run for this. 

Wouldn't bet on Germany that much, its opening on the same weekend as Hollywood (next weekend) and TLK after opening rather disappointing seems to be holding better and I think there is a chance for all three to be within about 10% next weekend and I think TLK will hurt TS4's opening. As TLK might end with around a 5x and a final gross of about $45-50M. Big plus point is that next weekend the weather is supposed to be worse again.

right now I'd could see a total as low as 12M.

 

 

And August isn't a good release date that is like prime dumping ground, summer holidays are over but still strong hold overs not good for new movies, often there will be a couple of hot days at the end of August, early September and no holidays to soften the blow. And it's not the normal Pixar slot, that is beginning of October because on the 3rd there is unity day in Germany and the fall holidays are in october in all of October, that helps legs and I know that prime release window is always the summer but in Germany the off months October to March tend to be stronger than summer.

In my eyes this shows no confidence in the movie, why would you open it in the middle of August and not let it start the final quarter of the year and the fall holiday period.

 

Edited August 10, 2019 by Taruseth