Weekend Thread: HTM heading for about 10 mill..CRA killing it with projected 4% drop

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

wasn't that a real last minute date change i remember it was supposed to open the first weekend of november for the longest time so idk maybe people didn't realize it was out or something.

IIRC wasn't there some weather related issues in its OW? 

[a2k]

MEG could do 500 ww and recover about 210 from theatrical revenue:

0.55*135 dom + 0.43*150 Ch + 0.33*215 OS-Ch = 210

 

It's on 409 ww with 35-40 to come from dom and China combined.

OS-China had a 26 weekend should bring 40-45 more.

Japan's to come I think.

[Jake Gittes]

If The Meg follows TMNT '14 from here it's gonna hit 140 dom. And that movie wasn't some legs monster so if it holds a lil better it can flirt with 150.

[Jiffy]

38 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

We all know or can guess who that person is

Lol she's so clueless. 

[WrathOfHan]

16 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Too many increases imo. Especially since this weekend wasn't deflated like last year's. If TMNT '14 dropped 30% on its fourth weekend which was Labor Day why would The Meg increase? If RN dropped why would Fallout increase? If Pete's Dragon dropped why would CR increase? Don't even get me started with shit like Mile 22. If no one wants to see that on a regular weekend they won't suddenly wanna see it on a holiday one. 

Probably because I'm basing this on last year lol. I forgot about the fight the prior weekend

[Jiffy]

17 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

IIRC wasn't there some weather related issues in its OW? 

Yeah, this is what Gitesh reported from the article about its OW:

 

THIS WEEKEND The animated comedy Puss in Boots debuted at number one over the pre-Halloween frame while other new releases failed to generate much excitement averaging under $4,000 a piece. The overall marketplace got hit hard by a double whammy of game seven of the World Series on Friday which attracted over 25 million viewers followed by a powerful winter storm hitting the highly populated northeast region of the country on Saturday affecting tens of millions of people with unusually early snowfalls. Films with better word-of-mouth may grab some of that lost cash in the weeks ahead if good buzz can spread.

[a2k]

CHRIS ROBIN is has a real shot at 100 dom:

- If coming Mon-Thu shows a 30% drop from last Mon-Thu, it will bring in about 3m.

- LD 4-day should bring in 7.5+ using +20% from this weekend's 3-day.

 

That gives 77.6 + 3 + 7.5 =  88.1 by LD Monday.

 

Even with big post-holiday drop offs (60%+ drops) would expect it to cross 95 with ease and then it's upto Disney to do an AWIT. Could get there even without any help.

Edited August 26, 2018 by a2k

[MrGlass2]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

EDIT: And of course, there's someone on YouTube who is immediately discrediting CRA's drop by saying that "well, last week was a 5-day opening, so it's a bigger drop from opening than anyone's willing to report". Because of course the fact that CRA increased exponentially on its FSS compared to opening Wednesday and Thursday and that it made the vast, VAST bulk of its OW money during the 3 weekend days doesn't count for shit in acknowledging just how batshit that drop really is. My God, some people are clueless.

Can't there be a middle ground? CRA had an amazing second weekend. But it is obviously true that the drop would be higher had it been released on Friday, especially since the OW would then include Thursday previews.

[Maxmoser3]

Saturday’s increase number for Crazy Rich Asians increased from last Saturday! Hopefully it can do north of $20 million or even more on Labor Day for the 3-day weekend portion, and if it does $200 million total, WB will be very happy people. 

[filmscholar]

With that Crazy Hold, CRA will definitely continue to get Rich, lol.   WOM is spreading after that Hold.  Wow @ "The Meg", One of the Biggest Shark Films of All Time.   400 WW, Congrats to Jason and the whole team, definitely a big summer success surprise.   HLM, I guess did decent, they didn't spend much and kept the budget in check.  It was kind of a hard sell with the Muppets being so Legendary for children, no surprised by the numbers. Melissa has her fanbase for sure but again hard sell.  I was wrong about CR and some of you guys were right. Those late summer legs are kicking in.  Will finish as the Highest grossing Winnie the Pooh Film over "Tigger" Adjusted.   "Mile 22" I guess is hitting it's demo but not getting much of a return.  Mark and Peter have been hit or miss the last few years but they are a good team. M:I 6 is also getting some late summer legs. Good hold, 200 around the corner.  Lastly WOM is really doing wonders for "BlacKkKlansman", it's pulling in solid numbers for it's theater count and it's already performing like an Oscar film in the winter.   Overall I've enjoyed this summer in 2018, lots of Blockbuster Success.

Edited August 27, 2018 by filmscholar

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, filmscholar said:

HLM, I guess did decent, they didn't' spend much and kept the budget in check.  It was kind of a hard sell with the Muppets being so Legendary for children, no surprised by the number

The pic, which STX says cost a reported $40M (we’ve heard $47M), was funded by financiers and foreign sales, with STX reducing their exposure. 

 

They did spent little on the P&A, the rumors is that 70% of the budget was covered, so a 12-14m exposure, probably that even with extreme bad legs a 15m OW would have made it certain to go into the black, 10m if the legs are really bad could be a little short.

[lilmac]

Disney’s Christopher Robin is on pace to squeak past $100m (although we’ll see how it does in September when we might see larger drops); Incredibles 2 will clear $600m by a few mil

[lilmac]

What a rare sight that CRA 2nd weekend drop is for a non-holiday performance.  A unicorn. 

[titanic2187]

In a weekend of the market is seeing 6% drop without any holidays help, we still can't detect the presence of @Rthanos........

[MCKillswitch123]

10 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Can't there be a middle ground? CRA had an amazing second weekend. But it is obviously true that the drop would be higher had it been released on Friday, especially since the OW would then include Thursday previews.

Well yeah, but it doesn't change the fact that it's a Goddamn 6% drop from a 3-day weekend. The way this person put it, it came across as they were immediately "doing what Hollywood isn't" and partly discrediting it just for the sake of attention and clicks. That's what that person always does. Plus, the way CRA performed on its 5-day, it's almost as if most people didn't know about its Wednesday opening (it jumped 93% on Friday in sheer Summer.... late August, but still Summer and opening weekend; and it made about 75% of its gross on FSS, including a bigger Sunday than Wed and Thur combined). So, to me, the question mark of "yeeeeah, it opened to 5 days" is nulled by its internal multiplier.

Edited August 27, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by sfran43

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

Crumbling!

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Brainbug]

God damn this decrease from estimates! What a GIGANTIC FLOP. 80M DOM isnt safe anymore