Weekend Thread: HTM heading for about 10 mill..CRA killing it with projected 4% drop

[filmlover]

It probably won't happen but it would be really funny if this beat Fantastic Beasts and Aquaman to be WB's biggest grosser of 2018.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, La Binoche said:

And both deal with preparations for a wedding. 

 

Good one.  Didn't even think of that!

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It probably won't happen but it would be really funny if this beat Fantastic Beasts and Aquaman to be WB's biggest grosser of 2018.

 

Not impossible at all i think. FB2 will be lucky to reach 200M DOM imo and Aquaman...i really dont have that much faith in Aquaman. Seems like a 180-220M grosser to me. If CRA can maintain its momentum, 200M+ is more probable than not.

[baumer]

For the 200 talk

 

 

 

[baumer]

Here's the players who took CRA in the summer game.  Now keep in mind, these predictions only go until Labour Day weekend, so it's very possible some of these players were predicting bigger numbers for CRA:

 

Movieman:  77

That One Guy:  81

Empire:  112

Chewy:  135

captainwondyful:  40

Andy LL:  82

bcf26:  125

fancyarcher:  107

Kayu:  80 mill (used it as his backup)

Tele:  95

deja23:  60 (used it as his backup)

 

That's it folks.  

[MCKillswitch123]

CRA is a fucking behemoth. You were right about that drop, @WrathOfHan 

 

MI6 holding excellently as well. Meg capitalizing on Happytime's terrible start for a pretty good hold too. THM is budgeted at 40-47M.... ouch. I was an idiot for thinking it would be the next Sausage Party. Ben Falcone (producer in this film, I believe) might be her husband, but he is a cancer in McCarthy's career.

 

No surprise at Mile 22's poor drop (though it might be slightly better as the weekend rolls), but its budget is pretty small so it might be in the black through WW/OS if it pulls a Den Of Thieves in foreign markets.

 

Alpha might leg it to 40-45M, which is a lot more than anyone thought it was going to have before reviews dropped. However, that 50M budget equals an inevitable money loss for Sony, unless OS really surprises. A shame, as it's apparently a good movie after all is said and done. And for what's worth, Sony has been having a great year regardless, and the profit on Hotel Transylvania 3 alone will probably offshoot the Alpha loss. They only have themselves to blame for the awful marketing campaign, though.

 

Christopher Robin might be getting lowballed (depends on the Saturday increase), but alas, it's still a total question mark on whether can it leg it to 100M or not. I think it has a chance, depending on how much it does next week.

 

BlacKkKlansman is gonna challenge 50M. Pretty great run and well earned success.

 

Slender Man is likely going to get a big OS run (almost every horror movie this year has, including Truth Or Dare and even Hereditary), so even if it just slightly edges its 28M budget DOM, it'll still be safe. But Sony is only gonna barely walk away with this one, though. Don't Breathe, this was not.

 

RIP Global Road. You certainly didn't last long, but then again, making choices like releasing a movie that wants to be ET but looks more like Max Steel really put the nail in your coffin. To be fair, according to what I found, AXL only cost 10M to make... but if it makes the minimum requirement of 20M WW total, that's lucky as all hell.

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/smallestdrops.htm?page=DROP3000&p=.htm

 

Looking at the all-time smallest second-weekend drops, at least for 3,000+ theaters, CRA's hold is unprecedented.

 

Everything above it was helped by virtue of having its second weekend being a holiday, like Christmas, Thanksgiving, or Memorial Day in Shrek's case. The only arguable exceptions are Puss in Boots, which had its first weekend deflated due to opening on Halloween weekend, and Brother Bear, which opened on a Saturday.

 

The closest examples when it comes to CRA's case (3,000+ theaters, not opened on a poorly-attended box office holiday, nor had a holiday to boost its hold), there's The Santa Clause 2, Elf, and Argo, and those only dropped around 15%. Insanity.

 

I guess Jon Chu was right that moving this to Netflix wasn't best for this film.

Edited August 25, 2018 by CoolEric258

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

RIP Global Road. You certainly didn't last long, but then again, making choices like releasing a movie that wants to be ET but looks more like Max Steel really put the nail in your coffin. To be fair, according to what I found, AXL only cost 10M to make... but if it makes the minimum requirement of 20M WW total, that's lucky as all hell.

Hollywood Reporter said that it cost $70M. Although $10M does sound more likely for such a cheapo-looking production.

[Cap]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

Here's the players who took CRA in the summer game.  Now keep in mind, these predictions only go until Labour Day weekend, so it's very possible some of these players were predicting bigger numbers for CRA:

 

Movieman:  77

That One Guy:  81

Empire:  112

Chewy:  135

captainwondyful:  40

Andy LL:  82

bcf26:  125

fancyarcher:  107

Kayu:  80 mill (used it as his backup)

Tele:  95

deja23:  60 (used it as his backup)

 

That's it folks.  

Predicting that was The Worst because of the two week cut off.

 

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It probably won't happen but it would be really funny if this beat Fantastic Beasts and Aquaman to be WB's biggest grosser of 2018.

Book it, TBH.

 

We also have a TRUE contender for Best Popular Picture in CRA. 

Edited August 25, 2018 by captainwondyful

[baumer]

And here's the only players who took MEG in the summer game:

 

baumer:  115

Wrath:  78

Panda:  108

Slambros took it in his top 15 but with no total

JJ-8:  96.8

AAbattery:  86.9

captainwondyful;:  50

Zeesoh:  75

Avatree:  65

BCF26:  130

fancyarcher:  77

MrPink:  65

Infernus:  70

Kayu:  85

Tele:  80

24lost:  73

deja23:  65

 

 

17 players took MEG.  That's about half.  More than I thought would take it.  

 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

We also have a TRUE contender for Best Popular Picture in CRA. 

The irony if that award was created just to award Black Panther only for Crazy Rich Asians to win.

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

Here's the players who took CRA in the summer game.  Now keep in mind, these predictions only go until Labour Day weekend, so it's very possible some of these players were predicting bigger numbers for CRA:

 

Movieman:  77

That One Guy:  81

Empire:  112

Chewy:  135

captainwondyful:  40

Andy LL:  82

bcf26:  125

fancyarcher:  107

Kayu:  80 mill (used it as his backup)

Tele:  95

deja23:  60 (used it as his backup)

 

That's it folks.  

TBH considering comedy hasn’t been doing big numbers for a while, I’m not surprised people were cautious. Same with The Meg,

 

It’s been a great two weeks for WB considering it’s been a fairly quiet year and the streak is likely to continue with The Nun

[baumer]

The Grinch dropped 5.4% in the second weekend and that wasn't any kind of holiday weekend.  

[filmlover]

Just now, baumer said:

The Grinch dropped 5.4% in the second weekend and that wasn't any kind of holiday weekend.  

Its second weekend was Thanksgiving.

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Its second weekend was Thanksgiving.

 

Sorry, you're right.  I can never remember when US thanksgiving is.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

That’s horrible. 900k was previews, this may not do 10M for the weekend

[titanic2187]

CRA's hold and amazing run is spectacular, but I still find that Slumdog millionaire be more sensational in term of grossing number, a movie with entire indian cast and one third of the movie was in hindi, from a production of a small studio, the movie did 140m+ 10 years ago!

[titanic2187]

21 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/smallestdrops.htm?page=DROP3000&p=.htm

 

Looking at the all-time smallest second-weekend drops, at least for 3,000+ theaters, CRA's hold is unprecedented.

 

Everything above it was helped by virtue of having its second weekend being a holiday, like Christmas, Thanksgiving, or Memorial Day in Shrek's case. The only arguable exceptions are Puss in Boots, which had its first weekend deflated due to opening on Halloween weekend, and Brother Bear, which opened on a Saturday.

 

The closest examples when it comes to CRA's case (3,000+ theaters, not opened on a poorly-attended box office holiday, nor had a holiday to boost its hold), there's The Santa Clause 2, Elf, and Argo, and those only dropped around 15%. Insanity.

 

I guess Jon Chu was right that moving this to Netflix wasn't best for this film.

But that 5 days opening kind of shifted the urging crowd to wednesday, therefore low-ball the potential 3 days weekend's number

[POTUS 2020]

26 minutes ago, baumer said:

Here's the players who took CRA in the summer game.  Now keep in mind, these predictions only go until Labour Day weekend, so it's very possible some of these players were predicting bigger numbers for CRA:

 

Movieman:  77

That One Guy:  81

Empire:  112

Chewy:  135

captainwondyful:  40

Andy LL:  82

bcf26:  125

fancyarcher:  107

Kayu:  80 mill (used it as his backup)

Tele:  95

deja23:  60 (used it as his backup)

 

That's it folks.  

chewy found a nut

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Sorry, you're right.  I can never remember when US thanksgiving is.

4th  thursday of nov. falls on 22nd thru 28th of the month

you'll know TG for 2 reasons. 

Dallas and Detroit play on thursday and

great box office holds