KINS Weekend Thread: 3 Day estimates: CRA make crazy rich #s with $22.2 million, TM Chomps On $10.5 million, M:IF doesn’t fall with $7 million, OF $6 million, Searching finds $5.7 million, KIN does $3 million.

[filmlover]

Venom has been giving me Green Lantern 2.0 vibes for a while tbh. A Star is Born likely won't open higher than it (maybe) but a higher total wouldn't be that big of a shock.

[dxmatrixdt]

predix from the Kin estimates

 

40k/50k - Tag - 54.50
41k/53k - Dog Days - 6.70
50k/62k - Uncle Drew - 42.39
49k/62k - Infinity War - 678.77
58k/74k - Solo: Star Wars - 213.70
68k/83k - The First Purge - 69.01
100k/125k - Neighbor - 22.53
100k/125k - Ocean's 8 - 139.19

 

0.17/0.21 - Skyscraper - 67.41
0.24/0.30 - Eighth Grade - 12.96
0.35/0.43 - Sorry/Bother - 17.12
0.34/0.43 - Spy/Dumped - 33.12
0.32/0.43 - Teen Titans - 28.83

0.60/0.75 - Papillon - 2.33

 

1.10/1.40 - Jurassic World - 414.69
1.25/1.55 - Little Stranger - 1.55
1.25/1.55 - Mamma Mia 2 - 118.00
1.30/1.66 - Ant-Man 2 - 213.82
1.60/2.00 - Equalizer 2 - 100.90
1.84/2.29 - Slender Man - 28.65
2.00/2.60 - Hotel Tran 3 - 162.50
2.00/2.60 - A.X.L. - 6.38
2.44/3.00 - Ya Veremos - 3.00
2.60/3.38 - Incredibles 2 - 601.24
3.85/4.75 - Kin - 4.75
4.25/5.31 - Mile 22 - 33.50
4.20/5.31 - Black Klansman - 39.50
4.81/5.91 - Happytime Murders - 18.54
5.00/6.50 - Alpha - 29.42
5.00/6.50 - Christopher Robin - 86.96
5.56/6.59 - Searching - 7.10
6.74/8.43 - Operation Finale - 10.16
7.00/8.70 - Mission Impssible 6 - 206.05
10.00/12.50 - The Meg - 122.49
22.26/27.83 - Crazy Rich Asians - 116.56

[Zakiyyah6]

A Star is Born doesn't need a 50 million opening to be a hit. Adult movies are perfectly capable of having legs as we are seeing right now with Crazy Rich Asians. Stop predicting every movie like it's a freaking 200mil comic book movie.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

A Star is Born doesn't need a 50 million opening to be a hit. Adult movies are perfectly capable of having legs as we are seeing right now with Crazy Rich Asians. Stop predicting every movie like it's a freaking 200mil comic book movie.

I'm pretty sure A Star is Born is being predicted for big opening numbers because it's been buzzed about for a very long time well before the reviews came out. It was even supposed to be a summer release at one point until they decided to release it closer to awards season.

[Felandria]

I don’t know where else to ask...

 

are we not allowed to make threads?

[Zakiyyah6]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm pretty sure A Star is Born is being predicted for big opening numbers because it's been buzzed about for a very long time well before the reviews came out. It was even supposed to be a summer release at one point until they decided to release it closer to awards season.

Buzzed about doesn't automatically mean 50mil for a film like a Star is Born.  It could mean 30-40mil. Legs will be what's most important.

Edited September 1, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[filmlover]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Buzzed about doesn't automatically mean 50mil for a film like a Star is Born.  It could mean 30-40mil.

I'm predicting atm that it opens in the high-$30M range that Gone Girl did on the same weekend four years ago.

[lilmac]

Late August is a prime time for weekend bragging rights. 

 

Last few years saw films with threepeats atop the weekend in mid to late August. All were ‘diverse’ films interestingly. 

 

 

Hitmans Bodyguard

Butler

Straight Outta Compton

and now, Crazy Rich Asians

[Ryan Reynolds]

15 minutes ago, lilmac said:

Late August is a prime time for weekend bragging rights. 

 

Last few years saw films with threepeats atop the weekend in mid to late August. All were ‘diverse’ films interestingly. 

 

 

Hitmans Bodyguard

Butler

Straight Outta Compton

and now, Crazy Rich Asians

last 3 weeks of August is still generally considered dumping grounds, even when it has shown people will show up for good product on any date

[dxmatrixdt]

not surprised at the B+ Kin cinemascore.  Should be one of the top 20 movies of the year.

[La Binoche]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Venom has been giving me Green Lantern 2.0 vibes for a while tbh. A Star is Born likely won't open higher than it (maybe) but a higher total wouldn't be that big of a shock.

It could pull a Batman & Robin / My Best Friend's Wedding. 

 

 

 

[Xavier]

https://deadline.com/2018/08/crazy-rich-asians-operation-finale-the-meg-labor-day-weekend-box-office-1202454590/

 

New update by Deadline, CRA at 30mil 4-day weekend.

[KeepItU25071906]

16 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

30 mln 4d weekend is dead for CRA. 

 

29 -also.

 

28 is still quite possible, but nope.

 

27- may be.

 

26- yes, good chance.

 

P.S. I wish I will be wrong.

 

 

 

Quote

Crazy Rich Asians is overperforming again with a revised third weekend projection of $23.2M over 3-days, -6%, and $30M over four, sending its running total to $118.7M by Monday

3

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Krissykins]

A Star Is Born would be in good shape with an opening over $25m tbh

[Alli]

thumb	rank	film	dis.	screens (chg)	fri	3-day (-%)	4-day	total	wk
	1	Crazy Rich Asians	WB	3,865 (+339)	$5.8M (-17%)	$23.2M (-6%)	$30M	$118.7M	3
	2	The Meg	WB	3,761 (-270)	$2.3M (-29%)	$10.1M (-21%)	$13M	$123M	4
	3	Operation Finale	MGM	1,818	$1.7M	$6.1M	$8M	$9.7M	1
	4	M:I – Fallout	Par/Sky	2,639 (-413)	$1.55M (-31%)	$6.2M (-23%)	$7.7M	$205.1M	6
	5	Christopher Robin	Dis	2,925 (-469)	$1.3M (-19%)	$5.9M (-5%)	$7.7M	$88.1M	5
	6	Searching	Sony	1,207 (+1,198)	$2M (+1539%)	$5.4M (+1292%)	$6.7M	$7.2M	2
	7	Happytime Murders	STX	3,256	$1.1M (-70%)	$4.4M (-54%)	$5.4M	$18M	2
	8	BlacKkKlansman	Foc	1,766 (-148)	$993K (-29%)	$4.2M (-17%)	$5.3M	$39.5M	4
	9	Alpha	S8/Sony	2,881 (+162)	$950K (-41%)	$4M (-33%)	$5M	$27.9M	3
	10	Mile 22	STX	2,950 (-570)	$912K (-47%)	$3.8M (-40%)	$4.8M	$32.9M

[Legion Again]

Those estimates have CR shockingly close to being back in the top 3 in its 5th weekend. If Fallout wants to beat AM&TW it’ll probably need to beat that 7.7 estimate (their Monday does look a bit small to me).

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Those estimates have CR shockingly close to being back in the top 3 in its 5th weekend. If Fallout wants to beat AM&TW it’ll probably need to beat that 7.7 estimate (their Monday does look a bit small to me).

CR, CRA looking to be the only holdovers with a great Labor Day holds.

 

HappyTime Murder's drop is shockingly bad and Alpha & Mile 22 are not good.

 

Hopefully Saturday will have stronger numbers across the board.

[dxmatrixdt]

bad drop for Alpha amongst holdovers.  Christopher Robin should increase in PTA.

it looks like Harry and Marvel affected Alpha more than Pooh.

[a2k]

Meg 

$10.1M (-21%) / $13M

$123M

140 total is possible

 

MI6

$6.2M (-23%) / $7.7M

$205.1M

Should go past MI5's 3.5x multi (needs ~214.5) with ease.

 

CROBIN

$5.9M (-5%) / $7.7M

$88.1M

A big post-LD fall could happen but 96-97 is locked imo and Disney won't let it stay below 100 if at all it needs help.

 

Edited September 1, 2018 by a2k

[MCKillswitch123]

CRA - Unbelievable. Part of me hopes that it keeps going up through the weekend and matches its OW gross for the 3-day, but alas, a 30M 4-day gross is madness nonetheless. This should drop a little steep for its standards next week, but I'm talking a 15-20% drop perhaps, and it's gonna continue to annihilate throughout September due to zero competition, plus an early October boost through A Star Is Born double features. 200M is happening, and if not, it'll come seriously close.

 

The Meg - Yeah, I feel like it may stall at 140M. It's probably gonna start taking harsh drops due to competition surges. Still, 140M is  like double a lot of optimistic predictions, to my knowledge. A year ago, I felt like it was gonna break out massively, and then I stopped believing myself.... should have trusted my original gut instinct.

 

MI6 - Rogue Nation added another 12.3M after its 4-day Labor Day weekend (which is a 1.068x multiplier from the 4-day). I think Fallout will fall short of that, though, since competition is starting to brew and (if DHD estimates remain true) its 4-day is barely above RN's Labor Day 3-day result. That being said, maybe a 1.05x LD multiplier is possible, which gets it to 215.4M, the exact number of MI2.... albeit that number is rounded up, it's actually something like 215.355, so it very well could be a photo finish. Just like it could happen FO seriously takes off and easily overwhelms the other MI's from here on out, who knows.

 

Christopher Robin - Pete's Dragon added another 9.9M after its 4-day Labor Day weekend (which is a 1.15x multiplier from the 4-day). Granted, should DHD's estimates confirm themselves, CR's Labor Day has slightly inferior numbers to that of PD (makes sense, since this is Robin's 5th weekend while Pete was in its 4th), but still, a multiplier like that gets CR to 101M. If it has worse drops (which is possible), it still gets within perfect fudge distance for Disney. After the AWIT debacle, why would they not do that for CR if the opportunity shows up?

Edited September 1, 2018 by MCKillswitch123