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Weekend Thread | Preview #s The Nun 5.4M, Peppermint 750k

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https://deadline.com/2018/09/the-nun-weekend-box-office-conjuring-records-peppermint-jennifer-garner-1202459068/

 

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EXCLUSIVE: We’re hearing that in early estimates that New Line’s horror pic The Nun is on its way to a heavenly-sent Thursday night of $4M+ which if these figures maintain will make it the best preview in the The Conjuring universe ever. Previews began at 7PM tonight.

 

The best Thursday night posted by a Conjuring pic belongs to last summer’s Annabelle: Creation which scared up $4M before a $15M Friday and $35M opening weekend. The Conjuring 2 is the next best Thursday with $3.4M, followed by a $16.3M Friday in June 2016 and three-day opening of $40.4M. The Conjuring posted a Thursday night of $3.3M,  followed by a $16.9M Friday, $41.8M opening; still the best for the franchise. Annabelle made $2.1M in previews, $15.4M Friday, and $37.1M opening over October 3-5, 2014. Reviews off of 64 submitted to Rotten Tomatoes are yielding a 33% Rotten score for The Nun, which means not every critic has filed. While both Conjuring movies and Annabelle: Creation earned great RT scores, Annabelle was able to lash at her 29% Rotten rating with the franchise’s third best weekend opening. The Nun cost a reported $22M before P&A. These New Line genre pics are always built to rain cash down on the Burbank, CA lot.

 

 

Tracking services have raised their opening for The Nun from where we saw them earlier in the week putting the range now at $47M-$52M in U.S./Canada at 3,876 theaters

 

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Don’t think it’ll reach that 47-52 range, but 40-42 could definitely still happen. Unless somehow previews come in at something crazy like 5.5 or more.

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Too early. It looks more like a guess than a real number. Anyways, good number to begin with. A:C had previews somewaht inflated due to its release in late Summer.

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The best Thursday night posted by a Conjuring pic belongs to last summer’s Annabelle: Creation which scared up $4M before a $15M Friday and $35M opening weekend

Preview to OW multi get lower for subsequent movies due to franchise frontloading and increasing use of Thu previews in general, but I feel that can be cancelled out by change in release date. Early August has more frontloading previews-ow multi compared to post-LD weekend. I think it will need 35-40 OW for a shot at 100 Dom.

 

Aud RT score is already rotten

Average Rating: 3.3/5
User Ratings: 1,391
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yeah it's def not reaching those 55M predictions lol 

 

probably will end up with 35M-40M which is still decent for a horror movie.

 

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while  yeah it may not reach the high estimates they have for the weekend, this preview number is still pretty big and really good :) 

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56 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

yeah it's def not reaching those 55M predictions lol 

 

probably will end up with 35M-40M which is still decent for a horror movie.

 

Would say it's great especially for horror films as they are usually low budget. This one's prod budget is 22. If theatrical revenue dom is 55% of gross then at 40 dom will recover that 22. Release, marketing and other costs will be recovered with rest of Dom and OS. Most likely will be profitable before non-theatircal revenue kicks in.

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1 hour ago, a2k said:

Preview to OW multi get lower for subsequent movies due to franchise frontloading and increasing use of Thu previews in general, but I feel that can be cancelled out by change in release date. Early August has more frontloading previews-ow multi compared to post-LD weekend. I think it will need 35-40 OW for a shot at 100 Dom.

 

Aud RT score is already rotten

Average Rating: 3.3/5
User Ratings: 1,391

Creation though was an August release - with schools out the preview number should be a bit more front loaded than a Sept release

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Some people never learn to stop underestimating horror movies bo.

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I put 41M in the Derby. It barely outsold Annabelle Creation at my theater and was behind A Quiet Place. This is the first Conjuring movie that has IMAX, so that’ll probably be what gets it over 40, especially when Sunday’s drop will be 40-50%

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RT score is going to affect it quite a bit. I'm not even seeing above 30M OW now. 

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2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

yeah it's def not reaching those 55M predictions lol 

 

probably will end up with 35M-40M which is still decent for a horror movie.

 

 

Decent?  For a horror movie?  I'd say it's pretty damn terrific.

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18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I put 41M in the Derby. It barely outsold Annabelle Creation at my theater and was behind A Quiet Place. This is the first Conjuring movie that has IMAX, so that’ll probably be what gets it over 40, especially when Sunday’s drop will be 40-50%

Your cinema isn’t the only playing The Nun. The audience didn’t come to your cinema because there’s 300 more cinemas that are playing it than Annabelle C and AQP were.

Edited by Litio
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Just now, Litio said:

Your cinema isn’t the only playing The Nun. The audience didn’t come to your cinema because there’s 300 more cinemas that are playing it than Annabelle C and AQP was.

Ok.

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1 hour ago, Litio said:

Some people never learn to stop underestimating horror movies bo.

 

On 9/5/2018 at 12:05 PM, Litio said:

At the end of Sunday, it will be closer to $ 70m than $ 40m.

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On MT Nun is at 57.2% and CRA is at 9.6%. 

 

So in a decent sample of the overall ticket sales made in the last 24 hours, Nun sales are 6x CRA, which everyone expects to do low teens this weekend. Hmmm.

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4 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

On MT Nun is at 57.2% and CRA is at 9.6%. 

 

So in a decent sample of the overall ticket sales made in the last 24 hours, Nun sales are 6x CRA, which everyone expects to do low teens this weekend. Hmmm.

Last Friday CRA did 5.8mm. If it drops 40% that means this Friday could be 3.5mm. Based on the 6x multiplier we would expect to see a $20mm Friday, maybe a little more even. 

 

The data is right there to be used. 

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