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Weekend Thread | Preview #s The Nun 5.4M, Peppermint 750k

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

CRA gonna go up.

 

If that Friday for Nun holds, following Anabelle 2 gets it to 47.5. WOM is definitely not as good, but I'm not sure how well it will impact daily holds throughout the weekend. So it should be good for 45 hopefully. Expecting 60% drop next week though.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Finnick said:

First DHD Estimate,

‘The Nun’ Headed To Heavenly $46M, Record Opening For ‘Conjuring’ Franchise Film – Midday

https://deadline.com/2018/09/the-nun-weekend-box-office-conjuring-records-peppermint-jennifer-garner-1202459068/

 

....

No. 2 is between Warner Bros.’ Crazy Rich Asians in weekend 4 with $12M and STX’s Peppermint at $11.5M at this point in time. The latter is looking at a $4.5M Friday.

Freestyle Releasing’s faith-based drama God Bless the Broken Road meanwhile needs prayers if business is going to get any better, filing in with a less than $2M weekend at 1,230 locations. The movie was directed by God’s Not Dead filmmaker Harold Cronk with a script by Cronk and Jennifer Dornbush.

.

Crazy Rich Asians is likely being underestimated (again) but should come to about a $14-15M weekend, which is great coming off of a 4-day weekend and being in its fourth weekend. Peppermint's numbers are looking meh as expected.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Obviously, this is a strong start for The Nun. I doubt legs will be good, but it'll probably have just enough juice for 100M if 46M holds.

Fine start for Peppermint.

CRA is right where I predicted it.

lol @ God Bless the Broken Road. Some Derbies are about to get fucked up hard

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

CRA gonna go up.

 

If that Friday for Nun holds, following Anabelle 2 gets it to 47.5. WOM is definitely not as good, but I'm not sure how well it will impact daily holds throughout the weekend. So it should be good for 45 hopefully. Expecting 60% drop next week though.

 

Just now, filmlover said:

Crazy Rich Asians is likely being underestimated (again) but should come to about a $14-15M weekend, which is great coming off of a 4-day weekend and being in its fourth weekend. Peppermint's numbers are looking meh as expected.

Ehhh, I don't think CRA is going up that much. I put 12M in the Derby with a 140% Friday increase. If it goes up, it'll be because the Sunday drop is sub-40% imo

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

btw, a word of warning: I had 25 minutes of trailers before The Nun, largely because the Warner Brothers attachment is four A Star Is Born clips sprinkled throughout the trailer mix. They aren't short clips like the Dunkirk ones in front of Transformers last year; they last for a good minute each. It was nuts.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

btw, a word of warning: I had 25 minutes of trailers before The Nun, largely because the Warner Brothers attachment is four A Star Is Born clips sprinkled throughout the trailer mix. They aren't short clips like the Dunkirk ones in front of Transformers last year; they last for a good minute each. It was nuts.

The trailer for A Star is Born has been attached to literally everything the past few months. WB is not playing around with this one.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

BOP predictions and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bohemian-rhapsody-nobodys-fool-nutcracker-four-realms/

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 35/125 (25-40M OW range)

Nutcracker: 20/79 (15-30M OW range)

Nobody's Fool: 15/40 (10-20M OW range)

 

House with a Clock in Its Walls: 3,500

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1,000

No TC for Life Itself yet

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

well, with 5,4 mln it has a great chance won't cross 100 mln in North America

 

 

How? It's the biggest Thursday ever for TCU and it was done outside of Summer, and it guarantees at least a mid 40's OW, low 50's in the high end. Sure, wom is mediocre and Predator may stiff it out next weekend (not that it needed competition for a 60% drop), but it's, at worst,  slightly likelier than not that it hits 100M with an opening like that.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP predictions and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bohemian-rhapsody-nobodys-fool-nutcracker-four-realms/

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 35/125 (25-40M OW range)

Nutcracker: 20/79 (15-30M OW range)

Nobody's Fool: 15/40 (10-20M OW range)

 

House with a Clock in Its Walls: 3,500

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1,000

No TC for Life Itself yet

Your $70M+ opening club is in jeopardy, Han.

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CoolioD1 Global Phenomenon

CoolioD1

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

btw, a word of warning: I had 25 minutes of trailers before The Nun, largely because the Warner Brothers attachment is four A Star Is Born clips sprinkled throughout the trailer mix. They aren't short clips like the Dunkirk ones in front of Transformers last year; they last for a good minute each. It was nuts.

WB probably figured everyone in the audience just wanted to take another look at her.

Edited by CoolioD1
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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP predictions and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bohemian-rhapsody-nobodys-fool-nutcracker-four-realms/

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 35/125 (25-40M OW range)

Nutcracker: 20/79 (15-30M OW range)

Nobody's Fool: 15/40 (10-20M OW range)

 

House with a Clock in Its Walls: 3,500

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1,000

No TC for Life Itself yet

it's the Saturday bump and Sunday hold that I'm expecting to be strong. Autumn is in full swing, and weekends will start becoming much stronger as we get more and more into September. 

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

Posted
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP predictions and TCs: https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-bohemian-rhapsody-nobodys-fool-nutcracker-four-realms/

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 35/125 (25-40M OW range)

Nutcracker: 20/79 (15-30M OW range)

Nobody's Fool: 15/40 (10-20M OW range)

 

House with a Clock in Its Walls: 3,500

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1,000

No TC for Life Itself yet

If Nutcracker actually does 80m, that's gotta be a screaming disaster. I think it'll open more in the low-mid 30s and do like 120m, which won't be great but will at least be ok.

 

Edit - Anyone know what the budget is? I assume its like 120-ish.

Edited by Wrath
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