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Fantastic Bombs & Where to Find Them: Grindelwald under $200m DOM

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In the 18 years in which the Harry Potter film franchise has lasted, none of its entries has even gone below $230m domestic. That's all gonna change this November, when the latest cash-grab from this series lands with a thud onto cinemas.

 

  • LOW T: If there's one thing the breakout of IT last year taught us, it's that trailer views are a pretty good indicator for a film's box office chances. If that's the case, FB2 is certainly in trouble; it's trailer from comic-con only got 9.8M views - dwarfed by the other 3 big WB SDCC trailers (which all hit above 20m). Even then, the original teaser trailer for the film merely got 18M from the official WB channel, which is likely the peak in views.
  • Out of its Deppth: While controversy isn't guaranteed to hurt a film's chances at the box office, the inclusion of Depp has certainly done the film no favors on its domestic front, as the part-time Pirate & full-time wine enthusiast hasn't been in a big budget film that didn't disappoint at stateside since 2011.
  • Nostalgia factor: Fantastic Beasts was the first Potter-verse film since 2011; a 5 year wait. That gives it an advantage over its sequel, as its predecessor already blew the nostalgia wad right open, and while this does offer a return to Hogwarts, will that really be enough to entice viewers who skipped the last one to give it a shot? This means that it's likely the opening weekend numbers will come even below the previous franchise low of $74.m
  • Legs for days: While the original FB had a 3.2 multiplier from OW, there's no guarantee it's bound to repeat it. This is especially more apparent with the increased competition that FB2 is facing; Creed 2 and Robin Hood certainly seem to be targeting it's main demo more than Allied and Bad Santa 2 were. Additionally, there's no guarantee this film will even be as good as the last one, as the trailers certainly don't seem to indicate it.
  • The Law won: While featuring the return of a fan-favorite character should, in theory, help to generate interest in the new outing, will audiences really flock to see Dumbledore as played by Jude Law? Or will it be another Ehrenreich situation, where audiences don't even recognize the character anymore. Swapping actors didn't seem to affect PoA from CoS, but this is the first time they seem to be using his inclusion as a potential draw
  • Swing & a miss: First installment in the franchise to get hit by the dreaded green splash on Rotten Tomatoes

 

wINners:

Napoleon

AJG

 

dOUbTers:

CoolEric258

Arlborn

Titan Man

Valonqar

Rebeccas

James

DAJK

TheDarkKnightOfSteel

WrathOfHan

Brainbug

captainwondyful

Edited by TMP
  • Like 2

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How do i move this to the clubs page

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OUT

 

I think this will go above the first film's OW, which would guarantee above $170M.

 

80/215

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8 minutes ago, TMP said:

How do i move this to the clubs page

Actually, it's okay for this to be on the main page, since the movie will be out in two months.

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Why does this thread exist? The Crimes of Grindelwald will do just fine at the BO, probably much better than the first movie.

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It's a bold club. I don't want it to succeed but I admire its courage. :)

  • Thanks 1

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

It's a bold club. I don't want it to succeed but I admire its courage. :)

My first club, didn't want it to be an obvious one

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Its the holiday season so even if it opens meh it should leg its way past $200m.

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3 minutes ago, TMP said:

My first club, didn't want it to be an obvious one

Excellent first club!

 

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The trailer views are actually way bigger than those for the first movie so your point fails. The fact is Potter is not the kind of franchise that has viral trailers so comparing it to a CBM is useless.

 

Way OUT btw. I think it has a good shot at 300m.

Edited by James

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Maybe i was being too bold.. changed to under $200m

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Out, i think it will settle for an 80ish OW and a similar total as the first one.

Edited by Brainbug

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27 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

My heart says YAAS and my brain says, LOLOL.

🤔

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