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CAYOM Y4: Predictions

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June

A Month at Belmond Lane - $39.1m Dom

Brave - $37.0m OW / $117.5m Dom

The Odyssey: Homecoming - $149.3m OW / $488.2m Dom

Darkness Dwells Deep - $10.1m OW / $19.5m Dom

High School Musical 4: Reunion - $30.2m OW / $69.1m Dom (The idea that this greatest hits flick targeted only at 20-somethings who still care enough to show up could make more than or even as much as the series' theatrical debut at the height of its fad status frankly strikes me as ludicrous)

Paradise Lost - $17.6m OW / $38.1m Dom

Edited by Xillix
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Worldwide Top 10 guesses (Don’t matter but eh)

 

1.) Odyssey 3: $1.3B-$1.5B

2.) Mass Effect $850M-$1.05B

3.) Pokémon 2: $850M-$950M

4.) Treasure Planet 2: $700M-$900M

5.) Pillars Of Eternity: $670M-$800M

6.) Can You Imagine: $550M-$735M

7.) Earthsong: $500M-$600M

8.) American Dragon 2: $450M-$600M

9.) One Piece: $450M-$600M

10.) Blue and Gold: $400M-$550M

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1 minute ago, Rorschach said:

The #1 status won't last that's for sure. 😅

I mean the only real contender is Spark and even then you’ll settle for 2. The only real other films with a chance over $1B is Jaws: The Return (still think it’ll be a mini JW). I doubt KOTS will do it and I think Amulet II will be around $875M-$1B WW

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19 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

I don't think it'll open below Counsel and I don't think it'll be nearly as leggy as you're predicting but the domestic total seems pretty on point.

Tbh the only reason I think it will open (quite a bit) below Counsel is... the R rating. For a franchise on this scale with this level of mass appeal it's absolutely going to cut into a chunk of the audience, way moreso than something like Deadpool where it's not carrying over (and losing) a PG-13 audience and is based on a very notoriously adults-only property in the first place. I know the obvious counter there is Logan but adjusted for inflation that opened about 12% lower than X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I used a very similar drop for this.

Edited by Xillix
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I doubt The Odyssey was a family friendly or appealing franchise like say Spark/Voltron or to a lesser extent even The Scavenger Wars. Sure the R rating may take away teens but simultaneously the final chapter effect will only help boost the OW

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14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I doubt The Odyssey was a family friendly or appealing franchise like say Spark/Voltron or to a lesser extent even The Scavenger Wars. Sure the R rating may take away teens but simultaneously the final chapter effect will only help boost the OW

It was never meant for a teenage crowd. Even though the first two films were PG-13, I’d still say they were more targeted towards older teens and above. 

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27 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Sure the R rating may take away teens but simultaneously the final chapter effect will only help boost the OW

Mockingjay was similarly a more dour, less-spectacle-driven finale to a successful franchise. Even with the same PG-13, lowest opening in the series.

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Just now, Xillix said:

Mockingjay was similarly a more dour, less-spectacle-driven finale to a successful franchise. Even with the same PG-13, lowest opening in the series.

Both Mockingjay sucked but I see where you’re coming from.

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Mockingjay was based on the worst-received book in the series, split itself in two for no reason other than to make money and the second part was drowned under the noise of Star Wars hype.

Edited by cookie
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