Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[Jonwo]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

I’d say low to mid $60M for Venom but if it performs more like a Deadpool film, it could miss $60M 

 

I have no comps for a Star is Born but if it hits $3M, then $50M is off the table and it’s prob looking at around a $40-$45M debut 

 

Will have to see if numbers go higher 

I think Venom still breaks the October record but I wouldn't be shocked if it misses it.

 

$40-45m would still be great for ASIB and it'll be very leggy. 

 

I wonder when if we'll get a $100m OW in October, I think when it happens it'll either be a tentpole or something like American Sniper. 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Jonwo

[RealLyre]

poor numbers for Venom 

 

if it misses the 55M October record 

[Deja23]

16 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

$7m suggests $62-63m OW for Venom if it performs like Ant-Man's OW. 

 

ASIB suggests mid $30m but I'm not sure if Deadline's figures include the previews from Tuesday and Wednesday

Quote

The super first weekend of the October box office has fired off and we’re hearing that Sony’s Venom is around $7M tonight after showtimes starting at 5pm, and for Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born from Warner Bros. we’re hearing $2M-$3M. That latter figure is for those 7PM showtimes tonight and doesn’t include Tuesday night’s Dolby preview at 100 locations and 500 locations last night in premium venues.

As expected, Venom skews to to young adult males so probably will be frontloaded. The preview number should go up though. 

Quote

Atom Tickets observes that in their advance ticket sampling presales are skewing more toward men, with the average age of ticket buyers being a majority of 18-29 year olds buying tickets.

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Deja23

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think Venom still breaks the October record but I wouldn't be shocked if it misses it.

 

$40-45m would still be great for ASIB and it'll be very leggy. 

 

I wonder when if we'll get a $100m OW in October, I think when it happens it'll either be a tentpole or something like American Sniper. 

If that $7M number holds for Venom, I’m actually having my doubts about the OW record. I was looking at other comps and it’s not looking good BUT again the number could always go up as these are early numbers. 

 

And yea A Star Is Born imo is already a success. Can’t allow personal expectations to get in the way of that lol

 

Honestly I’d say an MCU movie opening in October gets it done or if like Wonder Woman 2 opened there but otherwise I don’t see $100M happening in October anytime soon. 

[RealLyre]

 

Even if the numbers disappoint. This weekend is gonna provide us with so much entertainment.

 

 

[The Futurist]

The real battlefield will be next week-end, when  drops 65% and stays about flat.

 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

Even if the numbers disappoint. This weekend is gonna provide us with so much entertainment.

 

 

Can’t wait for @GraceRandolph to come strolling in and talk about how much of a failure ASIB is with those preview numbers. 

[Pinacolada]

Thor The dark World did 7.1m Thursday night and went on to make $85m OW....

[Nova]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

Thor The dark World did 7.1m Thursday night and went on to make $85m OW....

Thor The Dark World didn’t have 5PM previews and that was released back in 2013. 5 years ago previews weren’t as big as they are now. Another factor to consider is the fact that MCU films skew towards families. 

 

If Venom is targeting young males it’s going to perform like Deadpool and Deadpool 2. The latter being front loaded on its OW despite good WOM and the former having great WOM and a holiday Sunday to boost its internal multiplier. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Thor The dark World did 7.1m Thursday night and went on to make $85m OW....

Deadline said Venom is skewing young men v the Thor franchise which is more family and adult 25+ heavy

 

8pm v 5pm

 

5 years ago previews were generally less saturated. Thor 3 had a 8.5 v 12.1 internal multi with better reviews

[Pinacolada]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Thor The Dark World didn’t have 5PM previews and that was released back in 2013. 5 years ago previews weren’t as big as they are now. Another factor to consider is the fact that MCU films skew towards families. 

 

If Venom is targeting young males it’s going to perform like Deadpool and Deadpool 2. The latter being front loaded on its OW despite good WOM and the former having great WOM and a holiday Sunday to boost its internal multiplier. 

Ah... Well hopefully these numbers go up to like $8m tomorrow

[La Binoche]

Is it just me or is that number underwhelming for ASIB? 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

Ah... Well hopefully these numbers go up to like $8m tomorrow

Deadline typically underestimates early previews especially when they give them so early so it’s certainly possible. If it can get to $8-$8.5M it’s solid. Who knows it could go higher depending on how it plays on the west coast 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, La Binoche said:

Is it just me or is that number underwhelming for ASIB? 

A bit Oceans 8 did $4m and MM2 did $3.5m.  They were in summer though

 

Looking for another adult skewing crowd pleaser in that B.O. area outside of summer and what comes to mind is The Great Gatsby. It did $3.25m for a $50m w/e but those sneaks were at 10pm - and 5 years ago.

 

 

[Pinacolada]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Deadline typically underestimates early previews especially when they give them so early so it’s certainly possible. If it can get to $8-$8.5M it’s solid. Who knows it could go higher depending on how it plays on the west coast 

Do you know what time we'll get the official thursday numbers tomorrow? Early morning?

[Nova]

@CoolioD1 talking shit about Lady Gaga back in June and then raving about ASIB 

 

 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

Do you know what time we'll get the official thursday numbers tomorrow? Early morning?

Deadline may give another update in a few hours if numbers go up by a decent margin for either film otherwise we wait until tomorrow morning 

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, Nova said:

Honestly I’d say an MCU movie opening in October gets it done or if like Wonder Woman 2 opened there but otherwise I don’t see $100M happening in October anytime soon. 

I think if Joker does well for WB next year, I could see them putting more DC films in the first weekend of October. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Jonwo

[Cap]

Real Story of the Weekend:

 

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Real Story of the Weekend:

 

 

 

 

WAIT. He did Venom too?

 

Black Swan and mother! Matthew Libatique?