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Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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CoolioD1 Global Phenomenon

CoolioD1

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Monsters Univeristy and World War Z both opened to over $60M on the same weekend.

the first time ever for 50 was WALL-E/Wanted (crzy that wanted opened that big) i think.

Edited by CoolioD1
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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted

It's hard to find a good comparison for Venom since its previews started at 5 (closest one is maybe Incredibles 2, but obviously they won't have the same weekend multiplier), but that should put $70M on the table right?

 

ASIB should also be close to matching Gravity, or at the very least The Martian, right?

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
Just now, CJohn said:

40M+ for A Star Is Born and 70M for Venom? 

I think A Star is Born is gonna approach $50M. Aside from Lady Gaga fans rushing out, it's unlikely to be frontloaded since it's likely drawing in an older crowd (matinees have sold amazing throughout the weekend around here).

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

here is the cinemascores for 2018 releases if anyone can pinpoint where the two new ones will end up.  It could help with predicting internal multipliers.

Spoiler

Cinemascores updates for major releases.

 

Black Panther - A+ 
Imagine - A+ 
Incredibles - A+
Love - A+ 
  
12 Strong - A 
Avengers - A 
Christopher Robin - A
Crazy Rich Asians - A
Death of a Nation - A
Deadpool - A 
Equalizer - A
Forever My Girl - A
Isle of Dogs - A
Miracle Season - A 
Mission: Impossible - A
Paddington - A 
Searching - A
Sgt. Stubby - A 
Ya Veremos - A

 

Acrimony - A- 
Ant-Man - A-
Black Klansman - A-
Book Club - A-
Dog Days - A- 
Jurassic World - A-
God's Not Dead - A- 
Hotel Transylvania - A-
Mamma Mia - A-
Midnight Sun - A- 
Night School - A-
Operation Finale - A-
Overboard - A-
Paul, Apostle - A-
Peter Rabbit - A- 
Rampage - A- 
Ready Player - A- 
Smallfoot - A-
Solo - A- 
  
50 Shades - B+ 
Alpha - B+
A Quiet Place - B+ 
A.X.L. - B+
Death Wish - B+ 
Den of Thieves - B+ 
Every Day - B+ 
Game Night - B+ 
I Feel Pretty - B+ 
Kin - B+
Maze Runner - B+ 
The Meg - B+
Oceans Eight - B+ 
Peppermint - B+
Proud Mary - B+ 
Sherlock Gnomes - B+ 
Skyscraper - B+
Super Troopers - B+ 
Superfly - B+
Tag - B+
Teen Titans - B+
  
Adrift - B 
Blockers - B 
Breaking In - B 
Chappaquiddick - B 
Commuter - B 
Darkest Minds - B
Early Man - B 
Life of Party - B 
Pacific Rim - B 
Red Sparrow - B 
Spy Who Dumped - B
Tomb Raider - B 
Wrinkle in Time - B 
  
15:17 to Paris - B- 
Bad Samaritan - B- 
First Purge - B-
Hurricane Heist - B- 
Insidious 4 - B- 
Mile 22 - B-
Truth or Dare - B- 
Unsane - B- 
Winchester - B- 
  
Action Point - C+ 
Gringo - C+ 
  
Annihilation - C 
Hellfest - C
The Nun - C
Strangers: Prey - C 
Unfriended: Dark Web - C

 

Happytime Murders - C-
Hotel Artemis - C- 
  
Hereditary - D+ 

 

Slender Man - D-
  
these are unreported:
Little Women
Samson 
Traffik 
Tully 
Upgrade 

 

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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted

Very good previews for Venom, $65-70m is looking likely.  ASIB is doing very well too and I think high 40s is locked, maybe $50m+. 

 

Depending on drops, I wouldn't be shocked if ASIB manages to jump to number 1 next week, not sure on how First Man will do given tracking is suggesting $25-30m

 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jonwo said:

Very good previews for Venom, $65-70m is looking likely.  ASIB is doing very well too and I think high 40s is locked, maybe $50m+. 

 

Depending on drops, I wouldn't be shocked if ASIB manages to jump to number 1 next week, not sure on how First Man will do given tracking is suggesting $25-30m

 

I'm thinking First Man will open the same as Captain Phillips did five years ago with $25M.

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

First time ever for 2 films to open north of 50M on the same weekend coming!

 

It has happened a few times already:

 

June 27-29, 2008

  • Wall-E — 63.1M
  • Wanted — 50.9M

June 8-10, 2012 

  • Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M
  • Prometheus — 51.1M

June 21-23, 2013

  • Monsters University — 82.4M
  • World War Z — 66.4M

However, this would be the fist time it happened outside of the summer season (June specifically) - it would be very impressive to happen in October of all months. I'm not sure, though, that A Star is Born will be hitting the 50M mark. I think somewhere in the 40M range is more likely. But who knows.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dtairdryZid said:

here is the cinemascores for 2018 releases if anyone can pinpoint where the two new ones will end up.  It could help with predicting internal multipliers.

  Hide contents

Cinemascores updates for major releases.

 

Black Panther - A+ 
Imagine - A+ 
Incredibles - A+
Love - A+ 
  
12 Strong - A 
Avengers - A 
Christopher Robin - A
Crazy Rich Asians - A
Death of a Nation - A
Deadpool - A 
Equalizer - A
Forever My Girl - A
Isle of Dogs - A
Miracle Season - A 
Mission: Impossible - A
Paddington - A 
Searching - A
Sgt. Stubby - A 
Ya Veremos - A

 

Acrimony - A- 
Ant-Man - A-
Black Klansman - A-
Book Club - A-
Dog Days - A- 
Jurassic World - A-
God's Not Dead - A- 
Hotel Transylvania - A-
Mamma Mia - A-
Midnight Sun - A- 
Night School - A-
Operation Finale - A-
Overboard - A-
Paul, Apostle - A-
Peter Rabbit - A- 
Rampage - A- 
Ready Player - A- 
Smallfoot - A-
Solo - A- 
  
50 Shades - B+ 
Alpha - B+
A Quiet Place - B+ 
A.X.L. - B+
Death Wish - B+ 
Den of Thieves - B+ 
Every Day - B+ 
Game Night - B+ 
I Feel Pretty - B+ 
Kin - B+
Maze Runner - B+ 
The Meg - B+
Oceans Eight - B+ 
Peppermint - B+
Proud Mary - B+ 
Sherlock Gnomes - B+ 
Skyscraper - B+
Super Troopers - B+ 
Superfly - B+
Tag - B+
Teen Titans - B+
  
Adrift - B 
Blockers - B 
Breaking In - B 
Chappaquiddick - B 
Commuter - B 
Darkest Minds - B
Early Man - B 
Life of Party - B 
Pacific Rim - B 
Red Sparrow - B 
Spy Who Dumped - B
Tomb Raider - B 
Wrinkle in Time - B 
  
15:17 to Paris - B- 
Bad Samaritan - B- 
First Purge - B-
Hurricane Heist - B- 
Insidious 4 - B- 
Mile 22 - B-
Truth or Dare - B- 
Unsane - B- 
Winchester - B- 
  
Action Point - C+ 
Gringo - C+ 
  
Annihilation - C 
Hellfest - C
The Nun - C
Strangers: Prey - C 
Unfriended: Dark Web - C

 

Happytime Murders - C-
Hotel Artemis - C- 
  
Hereditary - D+ 

 

Slender Man - D-
  
these are unreported:
Little Women
Samson 
Traffik 
Tully 
Upgrade 

 

haven't seen ASIB but I think Venom will get B/B+, the movie was hilarious and the crowd I was with seemed to enjoy it.

 

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

American Sniper’s previews-to-weekend ratio gets Star to 52.4M (not including Wednesday numbers). Would definitely say 50 is manageable.

 

Previews accounting for 15% of Venom’s weekend get it to 66.67 for the weekend. 14% get it to 71.4 so I’d say in between those 2 numbers is the most likely outcome.

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