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kayumanggi

CAPTAIN MARVEL | 696.8 M overseas ● 1112.8 M worldwide

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I was kinda underwhelmed by the first trailer. Maybe 400 M?

Edited by kayumanggi

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At the current state of the MCU $400M is the base for any of its movies at the foreign box office, I think this one can make $525M

Edited by raulbalarezo
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I think over $500 million OS as well. The film will enjoy a boost from the curiosity factor from the end of Infinity War. Not to mention if/when the character becomes featured in marketing for Avengers 4. 

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I never expect the best possible reult.

As Ant-Man showed the lower end is still possible too. Incl the results for Ant-Man & Wasp beside Ant-Man being a part of CA 3 too

 

ww of the intro movies:

Quote
10 Guardians of the Galaxy BV $773.3 $333.2 43.1% $440.2 56.9% 2014
11 Captain America: The Winter Soldier BV $714.3 $259.8 36.4% $454.5 63.6% 2014
12 Doctor Strange BV $677.7 $232.6 34.3% $445.1 65.7% 2016
13 Thor: The Dark World BV $644.6 $206.4 32% $438.2 68% 2013
14 Iron Man 2 Par. $623.9 $312.4 50.1% $311.5 49.9% 2010
15 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $622.0 $216.4 34.8% $405.6 65.2% 2018
16 Iron Man Par. $585.2 $318.4 54.4% $266.8 45.6% 2008
17 Ant-Man BV $519.3 $180.2 34.7% $339.1 65.3% 2015
18 Thor Par. $449.3 $181.0 40.3% $268.3 59.7% 2011
19 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $370.6 $176.7 47.7% $193.9 52.3% 2011
20 The Incredible Hulk Uni. $263.4 $134.8 51.2% $128.6 48.8% 2008

Doctor Strange and Ant-Man made more in China than e.g. GotG, exchange rates are not foreseeable anyway. We do also not know a lot about the quality of the film, the quality of the action & CGI, what usually has an impact too, also if the movie will be fun and enjoyable/uplifting (hence a lot of rewatch potential) = I stay cautious,

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On 10/10/2018 at 2:16 AM, raulbalarezo said:

At the current state of the MCU $400M is the base for any of its movies at the foreign box office, I think this one can make $525M

The last one Ant Man achieved 400m because of an impressive 120m made in China.

 

The base is probably more Ant Man foreign run minus a 10% for some margin if the movie does not play well with a possible 85m in China, that would be around 340m.

 

That what the first Ant-Man did not so long ago.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Barnack said:

The last one Ant Man achieved 400m because of an impressive 120m made in China.

 

The base is probably more Ant Man foreign run minus a 10% for some margin if the movie does not play well with a possible 85m in China, that would be around 340m.

 

That what the first Ant-Man did not so long ago.

 

 

AM and CM will be 4 years of MCU growth apart.  In terms of expanded market  for instance the CM YT trailer views in India have exploded in the advent of AIW.

 

The ant concept is also goofy enough to possibly be a bit too niche

 

Ant Man 2 also had the World Cup scheduling to contend with that caused a pile up of films

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14 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

AM and CM will be 4 years of MCU growth apart.  In terms of expanded market  for instance the CM YT trailer views in India have exploded in the advent of AIW.

 

The ant concept is also goofy enough to possibly be a bit too niche

 

Ant Man 2 also had the World Cup scheduling to contend with that caused a pile up of films

Many of those factor must be factored of what the worst possible scenario of a MCU branded movie can do internationally. THe movie being bad being an other one (been a long time since we saw that happen)

Edited by Barnack
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On 10/12/2018 at 9:18 PM, TalismanRing said:

AM and CM will be 4 years of MCU growth apart.  In terms of expanded market  for instance the CM YT trailer views in India have exploded in the advent of AIW.

 

The ant concept is also goofy enough to possibly be a bit too niche

 

Ant Man 2 also had the World Cup scheduling to contend with that caused a pile up of films

Ant Man had competition from Sanju and regional releases. Then there was Dhadak next week.

Captain Marvel will easily have better reception in India than Black Panther. Could very well be highest non Avengers MCU film in India 

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

$600M overseas.

$600M DOM.

 

Black Panther 2.0

IMO overseas will be better than BP, especially in Asia.

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I got over hyped for my AMATW, so I try to stay grounded with this prediction although I do think it could easily break-out. 

With that said:

 

$390m DOM

$500m OS

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4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

$600M overseas.

$600M DOM.

 

Black Panther 2.0

I agree with that. I think it has the potential to make absurd figures domestically.

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I don't know why the first solo movie of a completely new character would gross just 10/15% less than the third chapter of Avengers and an insane phenomenon that attracted millions and millions of black people.

Okay, it's the pre-Avengers 4 movie and it has connections with it...but 600M is more than 30% higher than the highest grossing SH solo movie not named Black Panther (= the hyper hyped Dark Knight Rises). Isn't it too much?

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BP had at least an intro to a big part of the MCU viewers beforehand too (not meant as taking away anything from it's success) plus an exceptional promo, some other unusual details like free tickets for... 

 

I think if the movie is really great, has a very good action choreography & photography, great CGI and so on, things the younger males will react very positive to (as the lead is female, as a counter to groups that might rant against it bcs of that), but also be accessible for the other 'quadrants', an interesting story, brings something new to the MCU world.... it might reach very high results in dom and OS.

 

But if it is missing one or more of those points, gets a story too 'normal',.... it will end probably more like what the other characters - not introduced beforehand - in their 1st instalments reached, in especial if not clearly and in only a small way (if at all, not counting mid-credits and similar) connected to Avengers 4

That means to me all from Ant-Man 1 to BP is theoretically possible, without further insight into the movie's details and reached quality it is in my POV way too early for eve guessing the final numbers, let alone to be sure

 

 

 

 

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I am not aware of ground level in US but speaking of India, Captain Marvel has the biggest hype for a solo MCU film and I expect the same case with other South Asian markets, so its going to outscore Thor: Ragnarok and Spiderman: Homecoming in this sector of world, bare minimum.

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I'd go with around 400m as a starting point as well.  Looks fine, adequate, acceptable. But in my opinion so did both ant man and black panther and those went in opposite directions.

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