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kayumanggi

CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

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1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

20M?? Tragic drop if it happen 

 

Well, $20m would be bad but $25m wouldn't.

 

My reasoning is this: Captain Marvel was at $127m after 3 days and ended up with about $303m for the weekend so it added $176m on Sat and Sun. We know that Saturday is on average bigger than Sunday overseas (obviously it varies by country but I can't find any country where CM made more on Sun than on Sat). So overseas Sat was probably $95m to $100m while Sunday was $75m to $80m. As such in order to do $30m on Monday,  it's Sunday to Monday drop should be around 60-63%. In its two biggest markets, China and South Korea, the drop was 70% and 80% respectively so the rest of OS would need sub  55% drops to counter those which is very difficult without Summer weekdays or holidays.

 

So while $30m isn't impossible, it's very difficult and we should be satisfied with $25m imo.

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when are we going to know the number? I expect over 30M. I was right about over 10M dom Monday with over 11M when I saw 10.8M estimate and it happened. There's no reason for CM to drop to only 20M Monday not even with China collapse. other markets are strong. 

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

lol that's a long wait and probably not as good release time anyway. is that due to blackout on Hollywood movies? 

Yep...also Dunkirk,SMH and Apes opened one week apart from each other which hurt their legs.

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11 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So looking like a $20M OS Tue? Would that be considered good?

The problem I have a bit with you so pushing for interpretation is, I think its a bit too much, and, a bit too much work for the others in the meaning:

We do have year per year during different days e.g. carnival, Eastern, ... Certain holidays do not have a fixed date.

Than we have different months' general situation, like a Christmas movie might not be that successful during a heat wave in summer (or the opposite), there are patterns per months, but see flexible dates for certain holidays,... and e.g. Christmas western version not at the same time as eastern version,...

Not a lot of data for certain genre-months combinations

....

Its not that long that we even get workday numbers, and usually only for the big blockbusters, only for a time into its run

= there isn't that much data to be sure in my POV

 

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