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kayumanggi

CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

it's going down. 1 billie should happen end of next week or early week after. plenty of steam even without markets to open.

Can I question this statement? You do know that if we get to let's say $760m that would mean $310m through monday - sunday and you expect it to drop only 23% next week. You have to know thats just wishfull thinking.

 

Let's say it gets $780m (optimistic) by Sunday that would mean $330m and we would need $220m a 33.4% drop still not doable. 

We would need $800m after sunday to have a shot at 1B next weekend. That would mean $350m this week and $200m next week for a drop of about 43% (this would still be a hard drop but the only reasonable drop in this summary). 

 

Still it won't get to $800m this weekend and 1B next weekend is probably impossible.

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

that's why I also said or early the week after next. So either way, it's happening soon. 

 

 

But it won't be "soon" becasue if we go by the est from Charlie it would do about $760m so $305m for this week and $180m for the next week so about $940m So it needs $60m more that would be Friday maybe Thursday but I am thinking Sat/Friday so almost it's next next weekend. 

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6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

that's why I also said or early the week after next. So either way, it's happening soon. 

 

 

Optimistic 760 Sun, means +300 last 7 days. 7 after that add maybe 140 for 900, 7 after than maybe 80 for 980...   

 

going to take more than 2 weekends from now, not “soon”

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2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

But it won't be "soon" becasue if we go by the est from Charlie it would do about $760m so $305m for this week and $180m for the next week so about $940m So it needs $60m more that would be Friday maybe Thursday but I am thinking Sat/Friday so almost it's next next weekend. 

Ok, so in 2 weeks. That works too. drops will be softer anyway cause second weekend is always the sharpest one.

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2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Ok, so in 2 weeks. That works too. drops will be softer anyway cause second weekend is always the sharpest one.

Yeah but this week it dropped from $456m to $304m (if $760m holds) so about 33% drop when you take in to account that monday + tuesday OS was $42m + about another $20m for markets that do not open on Wednesday + $43m from DOM.

 

So the real drop with $760m (I think it might be a bit higher) would be from $456m to $199m that would be a 56.4% drop in it's second weekend. Than we also have some markets where 2nd weekend have the best drops like SK, Brazil and Italy that I know of on top of my head. So I would be carefull :)

 

Still hoping for $770m after this weekend maybe even higher with actuals but with the info we have now 1b is still some time away.

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7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

But foreseeable time away. :)

Like I said, I like your enthusiasm ... as long as you are not disappointed if something doesn't happen as expected to a degree you'll loose your sunny outlook on things 😉

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Let's get to 1B first before we r debating Aquaman numbers. This weekend is now looking around 175-180M WW... so it will be at around 745M after Sunday.

 

Will need very good drops from hereon if it is to reach 1.1B.

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Can I question this statement? You do know that if we get to let's say $760m that would mean $310m through monday - sunday and you expect it to drop only 23% next week. You have to know thats just wishfull thinking.

 

Let's say it gets $780m (optimistic) by Sunday that would mean $330m and we would need $220m a 33.4% drop still not doable. 

We would need $800m after sunday to have a shot at 1B next weekend. That would mean $350m this week and $200m next week for a drop of about 43% (this would still be a hard drop but the only reasonable drop in this summary). 

 

Still it won't get to $800m this weekend and 1B next weekend is probably impossible.

I don't necessarily see it happening quickly myself but I'd imagine after this week, it has 140-150 million to go roughly in the US and another 20+ in China. I think it definitely clears 1 billion with ease because as we approach April 26th more and more people will see this movie. Either 1st time simply to get caught up before End Game or perhaps those like myself who want to rewatch as a refresher. The unique timing of Captain Marvel's run ending exactly when End Game starts was perfect. Pragmatically those who choose to allocate funds carefully to films either for budgetary constraints (me right now) or strict rewatching policies (me in the USA) clearly have a good reason to alter their normal behavior.

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Yeah but this week it dropped from $456m to $304m (if $760m holds) so about 33% drop when you take in to account that monday + tuesday OS was $42m + about another $20m for markets that do not open on Wednesday + $43m from DOM.

 

So the real drop with $760m (I think it might be a bit higher) would be from $456m to $199m that would be a 56.4% drop in it's second weekend. Than we also have some markets where 2nd weekend have the best drops like SK, Brazil and Italy that I know of on top of my head. So I would be carefull :)

 

Still hoping for $770m after this weekend maybe even higher with actuals but with the info we have now 1b is still some time away.

Do you think CM can reach $1.1B?

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