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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Will the next Black Panther be anti-vaxx? | Get Vaccinated!

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A $200M+ OW I can see, I just can’t see a total increase. $700M is still a very tough goal, only 4 films have done that and I still think that the MCU won’t have as much in 2022 than in 2017-2019 era mainly due to the IW/Endgame factor.

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I'd say 180ish/520ish for BP2. 

 

True it's opening in summer (better weekdays and favorable for legs) but it will also face way stronger competition than that it could face in february/march. Also, the novelty factor won't be there anymore, those non MCU fans casual walk-ins won't be there. So a similar ow (let's remember this will not have a 4-day ow nor an inflated saturday) but "worse" legs. Anyway, 500M+ dom is gangbusters no matter what. 

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3 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I'd say 180ish/520ish for BP2. 

 

True it's opening in summer (better weekdays and favorable for legs) but it will also face way stronger competition than that it could face in february/march. Also, the novelty factor won't be there anymore, those non MCU fans casual walk-ins won't be there. So a similar ow (let's remember this will not have a 4-day ow nor an inflated saturday) but "worse" legs. Anyway, 500M+ dom is gangbusters no matter what. 

Uhh, we don't know that non MCU fans won't be there. From what I've seen, I think it's safe to say many of them loved the movie and would pay to watch a sequel. Now 200/700 still won't be easy to match but if they actually did include Storm and Namor or another popular villain in this movie, who knows how high the numbers could go. The hype would be through the roof, for sure. 

Edited by Ororo Munroe
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This is really too far away to be getting into numbers much, but I ended up getting into an argument on reddit about it (I know, I know — had some time to kill) and figured I might as well post the gist of it here as well.    

 

Black Panther was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and placed #3 DOM.     

 

Spider-Man was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #5 DOM.  The sequel came out 2 years later, dropped 13.5% adjusted, and got to #8 DOM.    

 

The Dark Knight was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #2 DOM.  The sequel came out 4 years later, dropped 22.5% adjusted, and got to #7 DOM.   

 

The Avengers was a superhero movie that broke out beyond all expectations, sold about 70M tickets, and got to #3 DOM.  The sequel came out 3 years later, dropped 30.5% adjusted, and got to #7 DOM.     

 

So, *preliminarily,* I think it’s about right to expect BP to finish 12th-7th or so DOM and drop maybe 20-35% adjusted. The former will probably suggest about 550-650ish, assuming that 2020, 2021, 2022 don’t place too many new movies up there. Using around 10-12% ticket price inflation over 4 years (pretty historically well supported, though who knows) the latter would suggest around 500-630.  

Edited by Thanos Legion
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I want to know who the villain will be, since they killed off the two classic BP Villians in the first film.

I have heard the Doctor Doom Wakanda/Latrvia Wars rumors, but so far they are just Rumors.

Edited by dudalb
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I find the idea of Doomwar pretty exciting, but would it really draw the GA in particular? I mean if they make a great Doomwar movie it would help, but compared to e.g. a great movie with Namor as the villain, or a great movie with Achebe as the villain?

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10 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I find the idea of Doomwar pretty exciting, but would it really draw the GA in particular? I mean if they make a great Doomwar movie it would help, but compared to e.g. a great movie with Namor as the villain, or a great movie with Achebe as the villain?

For me this exciting as I wasn’t as big of a fan of the first BP as most but I really like Doom, the GA won’t care one way or another about Doom but BP2 will be huge either way. 

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54 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Good chance of placing 3rd best April OW instead. Remember IW and AEG both got initial May dates as well.

I think Marvel is going back to the first weekend of May from now on 

 

EDIT: because I believe Infinity War and Endgame were anomalies 

Edited by JGAR4LIFE
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