pepsa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 (edited) @titanic2187 Even if it drop 35% Week to week for the next 3 weeks and than drops 55% every week after that it would make $27.2m OS-Japan. So I think it will go a litle higher than that. Say about 35m, we have dom 11m seems fair. And if we take $60m for Japan we get an extra $106m and $880m WW. But maybe GG did have a big effect, still I don't think with it's tracking record that 3x OS weekend is overly positive. Japan is a wild card it would fade away but at the same time it also could keep going. DOM with an extra $11m seems a safe bet. EDIT: Japan was miss calculated, so $60m should become $40m so $860m WW, my sincere apologies for the miss calculations. Edited January 14, 2019 by pepsa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EDWOOD Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So the ‘floor’ is over $850 million? 😲 This box office number just goes on week after week. Unbelievable. Great analysis pepsa.. I never would have thought Japan would be so huge for this movie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, pepsa said: This weekend locked $850m tbh, first I thought now way but I did some calculations taking in to account it's hold from the last few weeks and damm... So the range of Japan is $40m - $80m (from @feasby007) DOM it did an $3.5m WE so atleast 2.5 times this weekend OS-Japan: it did $11.4m this weekend, and $17.3m this week (Japan had a $3.7m WE and $3.2m weekdays) Taking in to account that last week most schools were still out the 34.1% is misleading and I think a better comparison is the week of dec 23th. when it did 26.7m for the whole week. So I would say the drop is more along the lines of 9.5% drop. The weekend drop this week was 10.7% WE too WE, however Japan did increase this weekend so the overall drop for OS-Jap would be more along the lines of 13%. (Japan only dropped 2.6%). So I don’t see why it would slow down in the next 2-3 weeks before the dvd release. So taking all this in to account I think it’s fair to say we will get atleast 3x multi from this OS WE. Using all this we get: Japan: $40m-$80m (with possibility to go even crazier but that’s not a likely scenario) Os-Japan: $11.4m*3 = $34.2m => $24m low-end and $65m optimistically DOM: 8m-16m (high end if it gets some Oscars and a re-expansion. So we get at least an extra $82.2m WW => add $772.7m and you get $854.9m as the floor (wtf??) If we take the high end it’s an extra $161m and we get $933.7m WW. Realistically I would say $885m to $910m is the range where it will land. Umm, sorry to say this, but I misread and miscalculated for Japan 😢 Realistic is more like $25m to $65m (Using Avatar and Your Name., however Corpse believes there is no good comp for this, so perhaps no range is suitable!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Umm, sorry to say this, but I misread and miscalculated for Japan 😢 Realistic is more like $25m to $65m (Using Avatar and Your Name., however Corpse believes there is no good comp for this, so perhaps no range is suitable!) Np np, than I should just readjust my Japan numbers and this make $880m a little less likely. Still $850m is happening but $900m might be out of reach then. Also it had $6.9m week in Japan it does 'just 4 times' this we already got $28m 😛 But next week we will know alot more, because Titanic2187 might be completely correct and the GG buzz did affect this weeks gross by alot. If next weeks drop is less than 25% (OS-Japan) and 15% or less in Japan I think we might get to $880m. Edited January 14, 2019 by pepsa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, pepsa said: Np np, than I should just readjust my Japan numbers and this make $880m a little less likely. Still $850m is happening but $900m might be out of reach then. Also it had $6.9m week in Japan it does 'just 4 times' this we already got $28m 😛 But next week we will know alot more, because Titanic2187 might be completely correct and the GG buzz did affect this weeks gross by alot. If next weeks drop is less than 25% (OS-Japan) and 15% or less in Japan I think we might get to $885m. Also there was a holiday in Japan today (Monday) which inflated Sunday's gross. It likely would've increased just 5% compared to the 20% it did. So likely its biggest drop next week. Alternatively, it just thrashes all and defies expectation... AGAIN! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Also there was a holiday in Japan today (Monday) which inflated Sunday's gross. It likely would've increased just 5% compared to the 20% it did. So likely its biggest drop next week. Alternatively, it just thrashes all and defies expectation... AGAIN! Thats good to know ! So maybe 20% - 25% drop next weekend for japan. Next weekend will be interesting because if we have a sub 20% drop OS-Japan next weekend my $35m (OS-Japan) est might be way off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, pepsa said: Thats good to know ! So maybe 20% - 25% drop next weekend for japan. Next weekend will be interesting because if we have a sub 20% drop OS-Japan next weekend my $35m (OS-Japan) est might be way off. However due to the holiday today, which won't be counted in the weekend just gone, you'll have an extra $2m which will subsidise the drop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Also there was a holiday in Japan today (Monday) which inflated Sunday's gross. It likely would've increased just 5% compared to the 20% it did. So likely its biggest drop next week. Alternatively, it just thrashes all and defies expectation... AGAIN! I will use Les Miserable run in Japan as the comparison point for Bohemian BR Dec. 22–23 3 $3,436,423 -9.4% 506 -12 $6,791 $55,301,899 7 Dec. 29–30 - $3,382,751 -1.6% 523 +17 $6,468 $63,890,010 8 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross / % Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Jan. 5–6 1 $2,965,761 -12.3% 506 -17 $5,861 $74,795,244 9 Les Miserable Dec. 22–23 2 $3,591,693 - 360 - $9,977 $4,608,613 1 Dec. 29–30 2 $3,121,903 -13.1% 361 +1 $8,648 $13,756,132 2 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross / % Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Jan. 5–6 2 $3,311,362 +6.1% 365 +4 $9,072 $24,345,093 3 Jan. 12–13 2 $3,301,794 -0.3% 366 +1 $9,021 $31,751,371 4 As you can see, Les Miserable's opening was quite matching Bohemian's 7th week run on the same weekend, and that similarity follow in the following weekend. Les did another 31m after 12Jan-13Jan weekend for a total 62m, assuming BR follow Les's from here, the total will most likely at 113m. 57 minutes ago, pepsa said: @titanic2187 Even if it drop 35% Week to week for the next 3 weeks and than drops 55% every week after that it would make $27.2m OS-Japan. So I think it will go a litle higher than that. Say about 35m, we have dom 11m seems fair. And if we take $60m for Japan we get an extra $106m and $880m WW. But maybe GG did have a big effect, still I don't think with it's tracking record that 3x OS weekend is overly positive. Japan is a wild card it would fade away but at the same time it also could keep going. DOM with an extra $11m seems a safe bet. EDIT: Japan was miss calculated, so $60m should become $40m so $860m WW, my sincere apologies for the miss calculations. That is why Oscar matters now, The oscar help to complete a perfect storm, the phenomenon that endorsed by the elite will create more buzz and curiosity. Fox will have more incentive to push the events like sing along, and theater will more confident in retaining or adding the screens, especially not many high profile film in European now. And i believe there are more space to grow in France and Germany as the two major market, BR didn't approaching all time record like it did in Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Czech. For now, assuming no Oscar best picture love, 830m worldwide is the ceiling but with Oscar love, i can see venom going down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I will use Les Miserable run in Japan as the comparison point for Bohemian BR Dec. 22–23 3 $3,436,423 -9.4% 506 -12 $6,791 $55,301,899 7 Dec. 29–30 - $3,382,751 -1.6% 523 +17 $6,468 $63,890,010 8 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross / % Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Jan. 5–6 1 $2,965,761 -12.3% 506 -17 $5,861 $74,795,244 9 Les Miserable Dec. 22–23 2 $3,591,693 - 360 - $9,977 $4,608,613 1 Dec. 29–30 2 $3,121,903 -13.1% 361 +1 $8,648 $13,756,132 2 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross / % Change Screens Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Jan. 5–6 2 $3,311,362 +6.1% 365 +4 $9,072 $24,345,093 3 Jan. 12–13 2 $3,301,794 -0.3% 366 +1 $9,021 $31,751,371 4 As you can see, Les Miserable's opening was quite matching Bohemian's 7th week run on the same weekend, and that similarity follow in the following weekend. Les did another 31m after 12Jan-13Jan weekend for a total 62m, assuming BR follow Les's from here, the total will most likely at 113m. That is why Oscar matters now, The oscar help to complete a perfect storm, the phenomenon that endorsed by the elite will create more buzz and curiosity. Fox will have more incentive to push the events like sing along, and theater will more confident in retaining or adding the screens, especially not many high profile film in European now. And i believe there are more space to grow in France and Germany as the two major market, BR didn't approaching all time record like it did in Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Czech. For now, assuming no Oscar best picture love, 830m worldwide is the ceiling but with Oscar love, i can see venom going down. I agree with ur write up, but I don't get how you get the conclusion that $830m is the ceiling with out Oscar love. $774m atm an extra $31m Japan (like you predict) that makes $805m so you are saying that with a $11.4m WE (a $17.3m week) + $3.2m DOM We and a $4.85m week DOM) Even if it only does 2 times this WE DOM+OS-Japan we get $29.2m extra and that would get it to $834.2m WW and over your trashold. Can you explain where you think it will drop hard enough to go under a 2x WE multiplier? (Btw I am not trying to be mean in anyway, I just want to hear your perspective on it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pepsa said: I agree with ur write up, but I don't get how you get the conclusion that $830m is the ceiling with out Oscar love. $774m atm an extra $31m Japan (like you predict) that makes $805m so you are saying that with a $11.4m WE (a $17.3m week) + $3.2m DOM We and a $4.85m week DOM) Even if it only does 2 times this WE DOM+OS-Japan we get $29.2m extra and that would get it to $834.2m WW and over your trashold. Can you explain where you think it will drop hard enough to go under a 2x WE multiplier? (Btw I am not trying to be mean in anyway, I just want to hear your perspective on it). Bohemian is already out in theater for 3 months, which is in the position of very vulnerable of taking a single week harsh drop. Theater will immediately dump it without thinking too much..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, titanic2187 said: Bohemian is already out in theater for 3 months, which is in the position of very vulnerable of taking a single week harsh drop. Theater will immediately dump it without thinking too much..... The release slate isn't very crowded atm and it's still in the top 5 in most major countries where it still makes money but I do agree that if some movies have potential they might drop it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, pepsa said: The release slate isn't very crowded atm and it's still in the top 5 in most major countries where it still makes money but I do agree that if some movies have potential they might drop it. Why I emphasize the oscar factor in its run was there are not going to have any Oscar blockbuster release in Jan or Feb this year, nothing will be a hit like La la land, The revenant, django unchained, the king speech. Outside of the favourite or Green book which should do modest business like the shape of water or 3 billboard, I can see the potential of Bohemian grabbing all the oscar bump for itself. Oscar bump give the protection for its screen and studio the leverage asking for more shows Edited January 14, 2019 by titanic2187 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marathon Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 BR overseas > Ant-Man & The Wasp worldwide? 😮 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, Marathon said: BR overseas > Ant-Man & The Wasp worldwide? 😮 I'd say will happen. Needs 47.1M to do it, should do at least 25M in Japan and 10M in Us so the rest needs to do just 12.1M and as pepsa pointed out last weekend was 11.4M, so it would basically only need to do that again. And I'd say that should be easy. Either it developed amazing legs in the market or it's not grossing anything, that should mean rather good OS legs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marathon Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 OS actuals came in higher than estimates, yes? Deadline had the weekend at $15m on Sunday, BOM latest figure is $16.38m: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2019W2&id=bohemianrhapsody.htm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxAggressor Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 OS weekend actuals are up by 1.4m. The weekend drop is +3% 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Bohemian Rhapsody OS> Crimes of Grindelwald WW could happen as well depending on Japan. That would give it the 4th highest OS gross of 2018 after Infinity War, Fallen Kingdom, and Aquaman. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said: OS weekend actuals are up by 1.4m. The weekend drop is +3% It seems Freddie refuses to let you use that word in its typical sense! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said: The weekend drop is +3% No time for week-to-week losers, Because BR is champion of 2018 runs. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marathon Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Need to enjoy this as much as possible, as you never know when a similar kind of OS run will happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
