Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Depp

let's not open that can of worms just yet. let's wait for the numbers first. i'm sure they'll improve

[TomeRide]

That number is mostly based on early east coast screenings, and that area was affected by the blizzard. West coast will be stronger and that number will go up. 

[That One Girl]

as a long time Harry Potter fan, I'm very excited to see Widows tomorrow.

[MrGlass2]

Numbers might be lower this weekend, because a lot of people are staying home watching the Detective Pikachu trailer.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Numbers might be lower this weekend, because a lot of people are staying home watching the Detective Pikachu trailer.

But isn't it attached to Fantastic Beasts (both being WB releases and all)? If anything, it should boost numbers.

[MattW]

Hmmm

 

8+18+22.5^(+25%) + 15.75^(-30%) = 64.25

x3.0 = 195

I think this fits in with Panda's club quite well

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Does this include the Tuesday showings or not?

Oh, come now.  Do you possibly think that Deadline would just be looking at the raw data coming in and just forget that FB2 already has money in the bank?

 

How incompetent do you think Deadline is, anyway?

 

Spoiler

I was wondering the same thing, naturally. 

 

[sfran43]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Let's not forget the recent "Early Deadline Preview" of 7m for Venom.

 

(the blizzapocalypse on the East Coast probably makes this more likely than that one, but still...)

Exactly! And the early $10M for Halloween! I'll wait for the official estimate tomorrow!🙄

[TwoMisfits]

Even with the snow, that's an iffy number for those hoping for a big domestic opening...

 

Should leave a lot of room for Ralph and Creed next week to both go high, since theaters will probably move more screen space (either by slicing individual showings or full screens) than expected if Fantastic Beasts comes in significantly below the 1st's OW... 

[TalismanRing]

57 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oh, come now.  Do you possibly think that Deadline would just be looking at the raw data coming in and just forget that FB2 already has money in the bank?

 

How incompetent do you think Deadline is, anyway?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I was wondering the same thing, naturally. 

 

It does say from Thur preview.

 

When it reported for ASIB it had it down for $2-3m for it's Thur previews which didn't include the earlier $1.35m from Wed

 

So even if it's only  7.5m for Thur it could be 3m + 7.5m x (8.5 or so multi) 

 

Just 1m higher in Thur previews and it could be 8.5m higher w/e

 

 

[The Dark Rock]

Hopefully this bombs so that WB fires Yates from directing HP and wizarding world franchise. He have been such a mediocre director.

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It does say from Thur preview.

 

When it reported for ASIB it had it down for $2-3m for it's Thur previews which didn't include the earlier $1.35m from Wed

 

So even if it's only  7.5m for Thur it could be 3m + 7.5m x (8.5 or so multi) 

 

Just 1m higher in Thur previews and it could be 8.5m higher w/e

 

 

I would just think that if a studio is going to report a number that includes the Tue Sneaks, that Deadline would at least note that they only have the Thur number here and that the studio reported number will/might be higher.

 

Maybe I should look at my pure Thur numbers from Sacramento and see what the equivalent is.

[DAJK]

Anything in the 7 range wouldn't be that great even though the storms are definitely playing a role. 

 

Going to be kinda shitty knowing that basically all movies are going to be somewhat affected. Wonder how much the other 2 openers will be hurt. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Expecting that number to go up. Nice showing at the local screenings tonight. Legs will be trash. The first one having legs made sense. Not this one. Dreary, dead on arrival chore.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would just think that if a studio is going to report a number that includes the Tue Sneaks, that Deadline would at least note that they only have the Thur number here and that the studio reported number will/might be higher.

 

Maybe I should look at my pure Thur numbers from Sacramento and see what the equivalent is.

Okay, let's actually do this.

 

Subtracting sneaks, I had 4,267 tickets sold at my stop of tracking,

 

That gives:

 

BP comp:  13.26m (down from 15.86m*)

IW comp:  12.64m (down from 15.11m*)

DP2 comp: 9.76m (down from 11.67m)

Solo comp: 10.39m (down from 12.42m)

JW2 comp: 10.48m (down from 12.53m)

AM2 comp: 10.38m (down from 12.41m)

Venom comp: 9.50m (down from 11.35m)

 

* I already knew these were trash comps, so no need to comment on the outliers

 

Chop off a couple of million for large parts of the East Coast being in massive gridlock, and that could work, I suppose.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Porthos

[James]

Lol why are we considering the early Deadline numbers again?😂

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, James said:

Lol why are we considering the early Deadline numbers again?😂

Tradition?

Something to talk about?

Comedy club is closed, so this will have to do?

 

Lots of reasons, really.

[a2k]

First one's ow was 8.4x the 8.75m previews.

 

Was expecting 6.5-7x the previews for FB2 but if it's more backloaded due to the storm, and using higher previews than Deadline : 8.5m previews * 7.5x = 64m ow

[DAJK]

Not to be the outlier here, but coupled with my post about how this is doing at one of the theatres I've been tracking, its IMAX performance tonight is looking even better.

 

It's 507% of First Man (81M weekend)

And 345% of Bohemian Rhapsody (13.11M previews)

[a2k]

CRA is on 173.6m and had a 0.22m weekend last time so should make it to 174m dom. What are the chances FB2 dom falls below that. Of WB films ASIB and AQM are likely to beat FB2. If CRA goes over too will be one of the most amazing upsets. Potter-verse not making it to top 3 WB annual dom is amazing.

 

64 ow, 2.71x multi gives 173.4m so right now the possibility of the upset is still alive.

 

Every Potter film has been WB's top dom film of that year (LOTR was NL at the time but even that would only push COS to #2 behind TTT. SS was ahead of FOTR and POA did not release the same year as ROTK).

Edited November 16, 2018 by a2k