Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Zakiyyah6]

8 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Never bought the press about her being the sole writer for the first film. They had to have assigned professional screenwriters to doctor it.

You are probably right.

[RealLyre]

this is a very bad number..  the third act was really good but the rest of the movie was super disappointing so I don't expect it to have good legs or anything 

 

I'm still very excited for the sequels so I hope the OS will compensate for the domestic underperformance so that WB can keep going forward with this franchise 😟

 

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Well...

 

Then it’s up to Ralph to brighten a better box office next weekend. It just needs to open great to not make this November too dull.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think people in North America are tired of Depp's schtick so he won't add to FB2 numbers here but I don't think that he will hurt the numbers here either.

The problem is he doesn't play his schtick in this movie. Most people in my theather were pretty positive about Depp.

[filmlover]

Eh, Depp can't really take the blame for this movie's impending underperformance even if he didn't exactly help it either. The first Fantastic Beasts was well received but came and went leaving no cultural impact and this one looked like Rowling decided to cram both a sequel to that movie and a prequel for some of the Harry Potter characters into one film. I'd say the drop-off should tell them something, but unfortunately they'll probably just try and cram even more forced Harry Potter stuff into the next one in a vain attempt to improve the grosses.

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, John Marston said:

considering I keep hearing this movie is nothing but set up for the next movie it probably will have bad legs

 

 

still international numbers look to be really strong and 750m worldwide is possible. I wonder if they will take any course correction in the next movie. Probably put more familiar characters/locations. 

Honestly, that (and the problems with the plot) have been keeping me from buying tickets.  I mentioned to the spouse that if the teens bug me for this, I might recommend a New Year's showing at the cheap-o, b/c I think it makes it there after the Christmas massacre if it opens roughly where it seems to be pointing...

 

But, if WB wanted to offer me $3 tickets...I'll go now (they offered me $6 tickets on Wednesday, but you all had already posted some rumblings and my girls weren't pushing, so I passed)...

[Jessie]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Depp's been box-office poison for quite some time, which is why the announcement of his casting drew "Seriously?" reactions two years ago. I recall people groaned when he showed up at the end of Fantastic Beasts during my screening.

 

So they set themselves up for this by hiring him. Then again, he was the focal point of the marketing push (which otherwise had zero hook, following up a quite solid film that people seemed to enjoy). So... yeah it's fair to place some of the blame on his shoulders. But 100? No. 

you're assuming a few online posters disagreeing with his casting is partly a reason, you are wrong. I'd say less than 1% of general public avoided this film because of Johnny Depp. most people don't even know about his controversial relationship with Heard and those that do tend to agree he's most likely innocent. this movie was destined to drop, the poor reviews and lack of hype just made it a given. replace Johnny Depp with anyone else and you still get the same result

 

it's seeing a similar drop to hobbit 2 and Hobbit 2 was actually well received. it was always going to drop  

[sfran43]

51 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

this is a very bad number..  the third act was really good but the rest of the movie was super disappointing so I don't expect it to have good legs or anything 

 

I'm still very excited for the sequels so I hope the OS will compensate for the domestic underperformance so that WB can keep going forward with this franchise 😟

 

 

Here's hoping everywhere else OS is doing well for FB2, because this movie is already crashing in China...

33 minutes ago, POTUS said:

FB2 run rate crashing, walk ups are dwindling.  It will barely clear 80m. unlikely to bump tomorrow. 230m/$33m weekend It will probably drop 90% next weekend.

$43m for the week

$4m next week

$47m Total

 

Vm will get good show increases thru out the week.  Giving it a bigger bump tomorrow and holding better thru Thursday. 

Vm may not lose many shows next friday.  They will take most shows from FB2 and other holdovers for the small new releases Including Ralph

 

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Here's hoping everywhere else OS is doing well for FB2, because this movie is already crashing in China...

 

Sub-$50 total in China would be horrible for FB2.

 

(Dom + Ch + OS-Ch)

FB1 234 + 86 + 494 = 814

FB2 190 + 50 + 475 = 715

 

With that the theatrical returns would be approx 190*0.55 + 50*0.25 + 475*0.35 = ~283, covers it's reported production budget (200) and eats into marketing / release with all of non-theatrical yet to come. So would be a profitable venture even with 675 odd globally as China is not pulling in a lot and 35% of OS-Ch is conservative (closer to 40% really). The movie has big names Depp, Law and of course JK so the participation costs could be high.

 

Edit: Shamless Plug

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by a2k

[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Here's hoping everywhere else OS is doing well for FB2, because this movie is already crashing in China...

 

what the hell.. wasn't it tracking for 42M-45M opening just few days ago and now the total is expected to be 47m..

 

China Box Office is so weird

[Zakiyyah6]

Depp's fans do not know how to respond to people strictly talking about his box office record outside of Pirates so they keep bringing up how innocent they believe that they think that he is. Never want to stay on topic. I love blocking them on twitter. 

 

Anyway, I keep reading that the film is a "for the fans" heavy on mythology affair and that it's super serious and not good. That is usually a dangerous combo at the box office. If the audience agrees this will will have poor legs in a lot of places worldwide. As always we will see where it is in 3 weeks. 

[Ethan Hunt]

right but who cares about potter

 

we're here for Widows

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

what the hell.. wasn't it tracking for 42M-45M opening just few days ago and now the total is expected to be 47m..

 

China Box Office is so weird

so true, it changes fast. if just 1 week back someone said that Venom would do 5x FB2 in China they would be laughed off. hell, it didn't seem likely 1 day back.

[That One Girl]

it’s probably not playing near anyone right now but go see Suspiria instead of Fantastic Beasts this weekend.  thanks!

[RealLyre]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Depp's fans do not know how to respond to people strictly talking about his box office record outside of Pirates so they keep bringing up how innocent they believe that they think that he is. Never want to stay on topic. I love blocking them on twitter. 

  

Anyway, I keep reading that the film is a "for the fans" heavy on mythology affair and that it's super serious and not good. That is usually a dangerous combo at the box office. If the audience agrees this will will have poor legs in a lot of places worldwide. As always we will see where it is in 3 weeks. 

Even some of the fans will get disappointed (like myself). The trailers made the movie sound way better than it actually is. Narratively speaking it was so messy and convoluted, almost everyone I spoke to irl expected more from it. I wouldn't be surprised if FB2 ends up with the worst legs for any HP movie.

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by RealLyre
a

[baumer]

Okay for those of you who are saying that it's a bad number, what exactly were you expecting? 60 million seems right where most prognosticators were predicting. So I don't know why everyone is starting off doom and gloom.

[Jessie]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Depp's fans do not know how to respond to people strictly talking about his box office record outside of Pirates so they keep bringing up how innocent they believe that they think that he is. Never want to stay on topic. I love blocking them on twitter. 

 

Anyway, I keep reading that the film is a "for the fans" heavy on mythology affair and that it's super serious and not good. That is usually a dangerous combo at the box office. If the audience agrees this will will have poor legs in a lot of places worldwide. As always we will see where it is in 3 weeks. 

I'm not a Depp fan but I'll defend him. I'm a fan of justice. I don't believe he's box office Poisen but I believe he makes poisonous box office decisions. He's a bit like Ryan Reynolds and I always disagreed that he was box office Poisen. Just like any actor, if you put them in a film people want to see and it's actually good, it will do well

[Jessie]

5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Okay for those of you who are saying that it's a bad number, what exactly were you expecting? 60 million seems right where most prognosticators were predicting. So I don't know why everyone is starting off doom and gloom.

exactly this. it's looking at a 20% drop on OW

 

compare that to Hobbit 2 which saw a 14% OW drop despite an improvement in quality and it doesn't seem out of the ordinary.

 

Both were spin offs from an older beloved franchise and both lack the curiosity factor of this first movie

Edited November 16, 2018 by Jessie

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

Okay for those of you who are saying that it's a bad number, what exactly were you expecting? 60 million seems right where most prognosticators were predicting. So I don't know why everyone is starting off doom and gloom.

Based on the marketing, the early 70M tracking and hype I've seen for it on social media I was expecting it to do like 80M-90M OW so it could comfortably do 200M++ dom (maybe even close to 250M). but after seeing it last night it's fair to say that the movie is very likely to have way worse legs than the first (if you've seen the movie you'll understand why) so now 200M dom is a pipe dream anyway.

 

I hope I'm wrong though and the GA ends up loving it but I doubt that.

[FantasticBeasts]

I am one of those who mostly loved the film, but yeah don't expect good legs. Not because the movie is dark, boring or confusing it is neither of those in a bad way but because it doesn't stand well as a standalone. It literally ends on a cliffhanger.