Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[MCKillswitch123]

Ooooh, I missed rankingz earlier in the thread, lemme shitpost now for laughs

 

SM2

SM1

Homecoming

ASM1

SM3

ASM2

(Haven't seen Venom)

 

SM2 is a masterpiece for the superhero genre. SM1 is cheesy but still has all the emotions down. Homecoming is mad bland and feels like a TV movie but it's still fine, mostly because of Holland and Keaton's great work. ASM1 has some decent chemistry between Garfield and Emma Stone, and the rest all kinda suck,

 

Anyway, NO WAY Instant Family and Widows are as frontloaded as DHD is saying, no chance. And given that OS numbers are bound to be enormous, FB2 is fine, all things considered. But I imagine some shake-ups are going to happen now. I can't see them firing JK Rowling even though it's likely that she's part of the problem, but I guess Yates will get the boot and maybe they'll bring in a choir of screenwriters to reign Rowling in.

Edited November 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[filmnerdjamie]

Couldn't stand Homecoming. But it's the third best Spidey film by default.

[titanic2187]

14 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

My showing of Widows was completely sold out last night.

 

The movie is a goddman masterpiece 

This better be continue throughout the country 

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:

Just checking Deadline.... was a bit trickier to find but these are the numbers....

 

Taken off the Deadline report...

Grindelwald eyeing 27.5m ~ 69-70m weekend ?

Grinch 7.5m second Friday and 31m weekend

Bohemian Rhapsody 4m Friday and 16m weekend

Widows 5.5m Friday heading for 13.3m

Instant Family 5m Friday heading for 12.5m

 

I guess you could say not as great as we hoped..... mmmmmm

 

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-weekend-box-office-opening-widows-viola-davis-green-book-1202503142/

 

 

 

Those numbers haven't been updated since 3pm EST yesterday...

[That One Girl]

Double billing Widows and Fantastic Beasts today 🤔

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I am afraid this do include Tuesday as there is no bump in numbers since an hour. Pure Friday will be mid 17s. 62-65mn weekend.

If pure Friday is $17.5M...

Tuesday $1.8M

Thursday $7.3M

Friday $17.5M

Saturday (+25%) $21.9M

Sunday (-30%) $15.3M

 

For a total week start of $63.8M...a smaller Saturday increase for less walk ups, or a bigger Sunday drop, or a true Friday closer to $17M could still put $60M still in doubt...

 

Note, ignore this post if we get an updated Friday:)...

[sfran43]

 

[Ethan Hunt]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Double billing Widows and Fantastic Beasts today 🤔

WIDOWS

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I honestly thought Widows would have a run similar to The Town. 

A few months ago maybe but that movie had a much more striking marketing campaign to go along with its rave reviews. We'll see what the second weekend and post-Thanksgiving weekend drops look like.

[a2k]

26 OD for FB2 inclusive of 9.1 (7.3+1.8)

 

Quote

Another challenge for FB2 is that there’s other strong family product cutting into its business: Illlumination/Universal’s The Grinch after a $8.9M Friday is looking at a second weekend of $37.5M, -44% and a running total of $125.8M and Paramount’s Instant Family is drew an estimated $4.4M on Friday for a potential $13.3M opening in 4th. Let’s also not forget the multi-generation appealing Bohemian Rhapsody which looks to be third with a $15.1M third weekend, -52% and running total of $127.2M, that’s also preventing FB2 traffic.

 

Two critically acclaimed awards contenders, 20th Century Fox/New Regency’s Widows at 91% certified fresh and TIFF winner Green Book at 83% certified fresh aren’t doing well in their expected openings respectively $12M at 2,803 and $307K at 25 locations, and that speaks to a larger conversation about these types of film this season.

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by a2k

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-weekend-box-office-opening-widows-viola-davis-green-book-1202503142/

 

Quote

Between midday and Friday and late last night, industry estimates for Fantastic Beasts and the Crimes of Grindelwald eased with the J.K. Rowling-scripted sequel showing $26M for Friday (inclusive of $7.3M Thursday night sales and $1.8M from Tuesday) on its way to $65M, which is where tracking and Warner Bros. had it, but still this sub-franchise of Harry Potter is playing like a sequel in its second go-round not a superhero movie, or Potter movie for that matter. Family breakout was small last night with 18% kids, 8% parents and 74% general, and the hope would be that matinees would expand on those demos plus ticket sales, but the last movie made most of its money on Thursday night and Friday, easing close to 12% on Saturday, and this one looks like it will do about the same. While the pic leaned heavy on females at 53% overall, when you drill down the demos, there was largely an even spread across all ages with Females 25+ leading with 27%, followed by Females under 25 at 26%, males over 25 26% and males under 25 at 21%. FB2 was strong in the west with seven out of the top 10 runs while IMAX, 3-D,  & PLFs accounted for 27% of the take so far.

 

Another challenge for FB2 is that there’s other strong family product cutting into its business: Illlumination/Universal’s The Grinch after a $8.9M Friday is looking at a second weekend of $37.5M, -44% and a running total of $125.8M and Paramount’s Instant Family is drew an estimated $4.4M on Friday for a potential $13.3M opening in 4th. Let’s also not forget the multi-generation appealing Bohemian Rhapsody which looks to be third with a $15.1M third weekend, -52% and running total of $127.2M, that’s also preventing FB2 traffic.

 

Two critically acclaimed awards contenders, 20th Century Fox/New Regency’s Widows at 91% certified fresh and TIFF winner Green Book at 83% certified fresh aren’t doing well in their expected openings respectively $12M at 2,803 and $307K at 25 locations, and that speaks to a larger conversation about these types of film this season. Outside, of A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody,  which have pop elements built into them respectively with Lady Gaga and Freddie Mercury, this season’s awards season fare has been struggling (The Front Runner is flat-out gone and out and a write-off for Bron Studios and Sony with a $68K second weekend at 22 locations, running total of $159K) and we need to remember that these films are geared toward older adults who are slower to come out, and both of these titles are word of mouth movies. At last night’s WGA screening of Widows, there were loud gasps during major twists in the film, but CinemaScore and PostTrak audiences aren’t impressed with a B grade and 3 1/2 stars. Diversity demos were 52% Caucasian, 22% African American,  16% Hispanic and 9% Asian.

 

[Rogerio]

Guys, I think the 1,8M is included in the Thursday´s number, 9.1M

So, if OD is 27,5M, Friday was 18,4M

[MinaTakla]

Great number for the Grinch!

DHD updated it - if true will be the best 2nd weekend hold of an Illumination film since possibly DM1!

 

Another challenge for FB2 is that there’s other strong family product cutting into its business: Illlumination/Universal’s The Grinch after a $8.9M Friday is looking at a second weekend of $37.5M, -44% and a running total of $125.8M and Paramount’s Instant Family is drew an estimated $4.4M on Friday for a potential $13.3M opening in 4th. Let’s also not forget the multi-generation appealing Bohemian Rhapsody which looks to be third with a $15.1M third weekend, -52% and running total of $127.2M, that’s also preventing FB2 traffic.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-weekend-box-office-opening-widows-viola-davis-green-book-1202503142/

 

 

That's alright for Green Book considering the limited release was added at the 11th hour. The PTA drop next weekend shouldn't be too severe when it goes into 1K theaters.

 

And The Front Runner, geez. Will that even make $1M total at this point?

[a2k]

Hmm....26 OD leading to 65 OW seems tough. Using FB1 Sat bump (from true Friday) and Sun drop....

9.1

16.9

21.2 (+25.5%)

14.8 (-30%)

= 62.0 (2.8x multi would leave it below CRA on WB annual Dom chart)

 

EDIT: 64 at most imo (unless Friday is higher than 26) ... requiring 2.82x for 180+ dom.

Edited November 17, 2018 by a2k

[Nova]

Yup. I knew the Friday numbers reported yesterday for Widows and Instant Family were wonky given the weekend projection. Probably a typo on Deadline's part. $4M-$4.5M would make more sense for $12M-$13M OW. 

[sfran43]

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Great number for the Grinch!

DHD updated it - if true will be the best 2nd weekend hold of an Illumination film since possibly DM1!

 

Another challenge for FB2 is that there’s other strong family product cutting into its business: Illlumination/Universal’s The Grinch after a $8.9M Friday is looking at a second weekend of $37.5M, -44% and a running total of $125.8M and Paramount’s Instant Family is drew an estimated $4.4M on Friday for a potential $13.3M opening in 4th. Let’s also not forget the multi-generation appealing Bohemian Rhapsody which looks to be third with a $15.1M third weekend, -52% and running total of $127.2M, that’s also preventing FB2 traffic.

It's the 1st weekend most people will let themselves think Xmas - next weekend, even with Ralph opening, it might hold even better...

[sfran43]

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by sfran43

[Alli]

Holly ....  IF and Widows bombed