Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Zakiyyah6]

I know every thing dropped big so whatever but I'm still laughing at how big Spider's Web drop is coupled with it's 7.8mil opening. I think Claire Foy's break out year is really giving some flop break out year's a run for their money.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Nova]

1 minute ago, TombRaider said:

yikes spider's web... who even thought it'd do well to green light it?

 

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

I know every thing dropped big so whatever but I'm still laughing at how big Spider's Web drop is coupled with it's 7.8mil opening. 

I honestly completely forgot that movie even came out. I remember the trailer playing before every single summer movie I watched and yet completely forgot all about it. 

[a2k]

Giving 30% bump from true Friday compared to FB1's ~25.5% (FB2 is unlikely to bump better than FB1 as a sequel but just trying to find the high-end). Using 28% Sun drop compared to FB1's 30%.

 

9.1 [1.8 + 7.3]

16.6 [25.7 OD]

21.6 (+30%)

15.5 (-28%)

= 62.8 OW ... Even 3x gives under-190 dom!

 

39%

Average Rating: 5.4/10

Reviews Counted: 201

Fresh: 79

Rotten: 122

 

73%

Average Rating: 3.9/5

User Ratings: 6,016

Edited November 17, 2018 by a2k

[Valonqar]

People are simply not interested in movies released this week so I expect Ralph and Creed 2 to blow up. I think they'll benefit from indifference towards this week's releases. I especially want Creed 2 to break out cause of Mike and Tessa. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Valonqar

[RealLyre]

yikes for Fantastic Beasts 2 B+ CinemaScore,RT dropped to the 30s and audience score is going down..

 

and don't expect this to have good legs since FB2 is just a 2-hour boring commercial for Fantastic Beasts 3 

200M is dead..

63M opening would lead to 157-176M dom total ( assuming 2.5x-2.8x multi at best)

and even if it somehow manages to have the same legs as FB1, it would still fall short of 200M (3.1x multi for 195M but that's unlikely to happen anyway).

 

WB should be counting on OS to carry this movie to 700M+ and after the disappointing numbers in China I'm not even sure if 700M is still within reach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

The Front Runner has face planted & A Private War expanded to 865 theaters and is no where on the chart. 

 

Boy Erased and Can You Ever Forgive Me look to do under $10m - joining The Sister Brothers & Beautiful Boy - unless they catch some serious award noms.   

 

So far only Old Man With a Gun has passed $10m.  Go Redford (get that stolen All Is Lost nom)

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think even CREED II may be ahead of Fantastic Beasts next weekend.

[salvador-232]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

yikes for Fantastic Beasts 2 B+ CinemaScore,RT dropped to the 30s and audience score is going down..

 

and don't expect this to have good legs since FB2 is just a 2-hour boring commercial for Fantastic Beasts 3 

200M is dead..

63M opening would lead to 157-176M dom total ( assuming 2.5x-2.8x multi at best)

and even if it somehow manages to have the same legs as FB1, it would still fall short of 200M (3.1x multi for 195M but that's unlikely to happen anyway).

 

WB should be counting on OS to carry this movie to 700M+ and after the disappointing numbers in China I'm not even sure if 700M is still within reach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, If people actually looked at the OS numbers instead of cherry picking the ones that suit its doomsday narrative (And even China isn't looking as bad as yesterday) they would realize that sub 700M is a joke unless it has BvS WOM 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Boy Erased and Can You Ever Forgive Me look to do under $10m - joining The Sister Brothers & Beautiful Boy - unless they catch some serious award noms.   

They're doing fine all things considered (can't find info on budgets but I can't imagine the budgets for either were very high - or at least nowhere nearly as high as the baffling $25M of Beautiful Boy or the $40M (!) of The Sisters Brothers). 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

Well, If people actually looked at the OS numbers instead of cherry picking the ones that suit its doomsday narrative (And even China isn't looking as bad as yesterday) they would realize that sub 700M is a joke unless it has BvS WOM 

 

Under 700 is possible if not very probable .... (FB1 in braces)

 

Dom 185 (234) -21%

China 60 (86) -30%

OS-China 455 (494) -8%

= 700 (814) -14%

 

700+ may be likelier but under-700 is no means a joke

Edited November 17, 2018 by a2k

[sfran43]

It just needs $11.4M to hit $200M! Will most likely get there by Sunday!

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by sfran43

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't think that FB2 is going to be some sort of flop but I do question the longevity of the series if this film doesn't have really good word of mouth. 

[sfran43]

Poor FB2

 

[MCKillswitch123]

I swear to God, if Venom actually manages to gross numbers on par with Homecoming and Spider-Man 3 (maybe higher) worldwide, Amy Pascal is going to parade around like she's a creative genius.

 

Meanwhile, Feige will wish he had just agreed that Venom was a part of the MCU all along.

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[grim22]

Apart from The Grinch, those are horrible numbers all around.

[filmlover]

Next weekend I have Ralph with $68M and Creed II with $50M over the 5-day frame. Robin Hood will bomb with about $11M over the 5-day. No idea about Green Book although the limited numbers certainly aren't promising.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Next weekend I have Ralph with $68M and Creed II with $50M over the 5-day frame. Robin Hood will bomb with about $11M over the 5-day. No idea about Green Book although the limited numbers certainly aren't promising.

Likely over RH. That movie's boxoffice gonna make Spider Web's boxoffice look like Venom. 

[oMeriMombatti]

Venom OS gross will be greater than all the previous Spidey Films as well as DC universe and Fox SH movies. Mind Boggling especially when you know it's budget was only 100M.

 

[That One Girl]

31 minutes ago, Nova said:

 

I honestly completely forgot that movie even came out. I remember the trailer playing before every single summer movie I watched and yet completely forgot all about it. 

 

I saw it last night and completely forgot it existed until you brought it up just now

[Blaze Heatnix]

If Fantastic Beasts gets a 63 million opening weekend, than we can expect X-Men Apocalypse's legs for this one ( 155-160 million total ).

 

Let's not forget that Apocalypse had a higher tomatometer and a tiny higher opening weekend, by the way