Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Litio]

So, will Venom surpass MCU's Spider Shit WW?

Edited November 17, 2018 by Litio

[a2k]

Approx theatrical returns for Venom could be,

214*0.55 = 117.7 Dom

271*0.25 = 67.8 Ch

390*0.35 = 136.5 OS-Ch (35% is conservative, really closer to 40%)

 

322 after 875 WW ... so even accounting non-production costs it will be making big profit before non-theatrical revenue kicks in!

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

If Fantastic Beasts gets a 63 million opening weekend, than we can expect X-Men Apocalypse's legs for this one ( 155-160 million total ).

 

Let's not forget that Apocalypse had a higher tomatometer and a tiny higher opening weekend, by the way

I remember how CF, MJ1 and MJ2 had similar legs along with diminishing returns. That's why I wouldn't rule out 2.9-3.0x fully for FB2, but that also gives it only 183-189 dom with 63 OW. Those movies also had better reception than FB2 imo.

Edited November 17, 2018 by a2k

[Premium George]

4 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

Venom OS gross will be greater than all the previous Spidey Films as well as DC universe and Fox SH movies. Mind Boggling especially when you know it's budget was only 100M.

 

Not only that but it's OS- china will be comparable to MCU non- teamup movies too. US "underperformed"   greatly in comparison to that. 

[Eric Atreides]

Sorry if this was already posted

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-estimates-fantastic-beasts-crimes-grindelwald-instant-family-widows-green-book-bohemian-rhapsody/

 

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 16 – SUN, NOV. 18

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald	$63,000,000	—	4,163	—	$15,133	$63,000,000	1	Warner Bros.
2	Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch	$37,500,000	-45%	4,141	0	$9,056	$125,876,280	2	Universal
3	Bohemian Rhapsody	$15,700,000	-50%	3,810	-190	$4,121	$127,885,859	3	20th Century Fox
4	Instant Family	$14,000,000	—	3,286	—	$4,260	$14,000,000	1	Paramount Pictures
5	Widows	$12,000,000	—	2,803	—	$4,281	$12,000,000	1	20th Century Fox
6	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms	$4,800,000	-52%	2,635	-1131	$1,822	$43,992,690	3	Walt Disney Pictures
7	A Star is Born	$4,200,000	-48%	2,010	-838	$2,090	$185,690,907	7	Warner Bros.
8	Overlord	$3,600,000	-65%	2,859	0	$1,259	$17,492,889	2	Paramount Pictures
9	The Girl in the Spider’s Web	$2,500,000	-68%	2,929	0	$854	$13,290,523	2	Sony / Columbia
10	Nobody’s Fool	$2,200,000	-67%	1,301	-1167	$1,691	$28,827,618	3	Paramount
11	Venom	$1,900,000	-61%	1,307	-1044	$1,454	$210,001,043	7	Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Boy Erased	$1,300,000	71%	409	332	$3,178	$2,651,950	3	Focus Features
2	Can You Ever Forgive Me?	$875,000	-39%	555	164	$1,577	$5,053,185	5	Fox Searchlight
3	The Hate U Give	$800,000	-61%	593	-515	$1,349	$28,243,193	7	20th Century Fox
4	A Private War	$700,000	256%	865	827	$809	$700,000	3	Aviron Pictures
5	Halloween (2018)	$620,000	-84%	922	-1795	$672	$158,716,140	5	Universal Pictures
6	Smallfoot	$525,000	-65%	493	-825	$1,065	$81,458,168	8	Warner Bros.
7	Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween	$150,000	-83%	307	-1212	$489	$46,379,127	6	Sony
8	The Old Man & The Gun	$150,000	-67%	171	-224	$877	$10,600,793	8	Fox Searchlight
9	Incredibles 2	$80,000	-35%	130	-10	$615	$608,400,195	23	Disney
10	Hunter Killer	$78,000	-89%	194	-763	$402	$15,642,791	4	Lionsgate / Summit
11	A Simple Favor	$30,000	-57%	101	-26	$297	$53,526,171	10	Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Green Book	$285,000	—	25	—	$11,400	$285,000	1	Universal Pictures
2	At Eternity’s Gate	$92,000	—	4	—	$23,000	$92,000	1	CBS Films
3	The Front Runner	$75,000	46%	22	18	$3,409	$166,169	2	Sony / Columbia
4	Disney’s Christopher Robin	$30,000	-54%	92	-30	$326	$99,168,899	16	Disney

[Noctis]

The critical reception is a sight for sore eyes. 39% 5.5 average and a 53 on Metacritic. That is the most shocking thing by far regarding its run especially considering the critical track record of this franchise.

 

This film will do well enough (probably around $720m WW), so they're fine. But Rowling and WB need to pay attention to the critics in order to make better films. 

 

I saw the film, and rank it higher than CoS and GoF. I need to see it one more time but right now it's a B/B-. Which is a shame because the final act is killer and the character of Leta Lestrange is simply one of my favorites in the entire universe. You can tell A LOT was cut...and Rowling needs help. Her imagination is as fertile as ever..and the CoG would have been the best in the entire series if she plotted it out more and gave more breathing room to some characters. 

 

Nicolas Flamel was funny but totally unnecessary. He could have been cut completely and there would have been no difference to the film. 

 

But yes, the last act is amazing. And my God, the music is fucking phenomenal in this film. 

[Zakiyyah6]

It's going to be so interesting to see how Green Book expands. And holy shit that Halloween drop! Well it did lose nearly 1800 theaters. That film just came and went.

[ThomasNicole]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Next weekend I have Ralph with $68M and Creed II with $50M over the 5-day frame. Robin Hood will bomb with about $11M over the 5-day. No idea about Green Book although the limited numbers certainly aren't promising.

i don't think ralph will open lower than Coco

 

tracking for Ralph 2 weeks ago have $ 65M 5-day... Coco was tracking at $ 60M 5-day and opened with $ 73M

I think ralph should do around $ 75 - 78M and have a little better legs than Coco

[Noctis]

 

The single best track released in any movie this year. Even a hater has to admit how great this is. 2:40 ❤️

[Premium George]

"IT" performance becomes more and more impressive. Humongous ow with decent legs and good OS performance. 

[John Marston]

we can take comfort knowing the better Venom movie will still be the highest grossing one

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

i don't think ralph will open lower than Coco

 

tracking for Ralph 2 weeks ago have $ 65M 5-day... Coco was tracking at $ 60M 5-day and opened with $ 73M

I think ralph should do around $ 75 - 78M and have a little better legs than Coco

Hype feels more or less about the same as Coco. I don’t see why it wouldn’t be about the same give or take $2M.

[Giesi]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

The critical reception is a sight for sore eyes. 39% 5.5 average and a 53 on Metacritic. That is the most shocking thing by far regarding its run especially considering the critical track record of this franchise.

 

This film will do well enough (probably around $720m WW), so they're fine. But Rowling and WB need to pay attention to the critics in order to make better films. 

 

I saw the film, and rank it higher than CoS and GoF. I need to see it one more time but right now it's a B/B-. Which is a shame because the final act is killer and the character of Leta Lestrange is simply one of my favorites in the entire universe. You can tell A LOT was cut...and Rowling needs help. Her imagination is as fertile as ever..and the CoG would have been the best in the entire series if she plotted it out more and gave more breathing room to some characters. 

 

Nicolas Flamel was funny but totally unnecessary. He could have been cut completely and there would have been no difference to the film. 

 

But yes, the last act is amazing. And my God, the music is fucking phenomenal in this film. 

I‘m curious why you hate GoF so much? As a book purist, I guess you can criticize many decisions, but to me it is still one of the most entertaining. The climax on the graveyard still gives me goosebumps, Ralph Fiennes is just that good.

[YLF]

Wasn’t there supposed to be a storm in some states? People were saying that yesterday(or earlier this week I can’t rememeber) wouldn’t that be the reason why every movies numbers are so low and having big drops?

[sfran43]

I will be shocked, shocked, if Christopher Robin doesn't have a massive increase + double feature with Wreck It Ralph!

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

"IT" performance becomes more and more impressive. Humongous ow with decent legs and good OS performance. 

2.65x multi compared to 2.1-2.2x of Nun and Halloween. Even Conjuring2 did 2.54x with much smaller numbers (It's dom less than IT's OW)

[a2k]

Just now, sfran43 said:

I will be shocked, shocked, if Christopher Robin doesn't have a massive increase + double feature with Wreck It Ralph!

WB lost an opportunity to use FB2 to fudge Rampage  

Maybe FB2 needs every last cent 

[Noctis]

Just now, Giesi said:

I‘m curious why you hate GoF so much? As a book purist, I guess you can criticize many decisions, but to me it is still one of the most entertaining. The climax on the graveyard still gives me goosebumps, Ralph Fiennes is just that good.

I don't hate it. I give it a C+. 

 

I'm not a book purist by any means. Goblet of Fire and Half-Blood Prince both had a lot cut out yet are total opposites. Aside from HBP being the most gorgeous blockbuster of the last decade, it more importantly focused on characterization and it was done beautifully. 

 

Oh, and the graveyard scene in GoF is spectacular. Far and away the best scene of the movie. 

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, YLF said:

Wasn’t there supposed to be a storm in some states? People were saying that yesterday(or earlier this week I can’t rememeber) wouldn’t that be the reason why every movies numbers are so low and having big drops?

At least in Philly, Thursday got hit hard by the snowstorms. However, weather was fine yesterday and today, although maybe some roads might still had to be closed on Friday.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Hype feels more or less about the same as Coco. I don’t see why it wouldn’t be about the same give or take $2M.

well, give $ 2M compared to Coco and will open with the $ 75M i predicted 😜

 

i expecting $ 230M dom [$ 75M 5-day debut] and $ 700M ww, maybe a little more depending on China