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Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

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1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Yeah in American and even in Canada, Bushs personality is that he comes of as a chill guy or that cowboy figure type. So here In NA, Bush Jr is way more liked then Trump. 

 

You know the guy "i wanna have a beer with" which in Europe is not a quality really people look in their leaders. 

It also helps a lot that Obama and Bush get along very well and seem to genuinely like each other. Obama still has a lot of goodwill in the US, so when he (and, arguably even more importantly, Michelle) says Bush is a good guy, a lot of Americans are like "Well, he was a pretty bad President, but since he's apparently a good guy my opinion is improved."

 

It also helps that Trump is viewed as a bad President (by many, though not all) and a bad person (by more than think he's a bad President), so Bush being a good, if incompetent, person looks less bad by comparison.

 

It occurs to me that this is kinda off-topic, so maybe we should discuss box office.

Edited by Wrath
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Victoria Sunday update:

 

Fantastic Beasts IMAX - 539 tickets

     72.7% Saturday ($15.65M Sunday)

 

Fantastic Beasts Regular - 693 tickets

     84.9% Saturday ($18.27M Sunday)

 

Instant Family - 75 tickets

     63% Saturday ($3.67M Sunday)

     90.4% Friday ($4.06M Sunday)

 

 

This wouldn't point to an increase for Instant Family at all, but we'll see I guess. Both my comps indicate an increase for Beasts for actuals. While the non-IMAX shows were a better comp last night, I'd have a hard time believing it fell only 15% Sunday. Somewhere between the two once again seems about right, so I'd go with 16.5M Sunday give or take, which seems to be where @Charlie Jatinder has it.

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7 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Why is this thread talking about Trump? Is this so boring this weekend?

 

And no, Trump is not popular here in Europe and certainly not in France where his popularity is under 10%.

One second people were talking about Crimes, beasts, bomb and suddently the topic changed to Trump. :lol:Probably cause he is very very fantastic.

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7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Sunday reported gross is $10.5mn, -20% from Saturday. The overall drop could be 25% as night shows won't be as strong as Saturday. Heading for $16mn Sunday, for a weekend of $63.25mn.

 

They're giving it the same drop on Sunday as the last one.  It might hold better on Sunday but I think the drop is pretty realistic.

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5 hours ago, AndyK said:

B CinemaScore for Widows is not a good sign.

FWIW Gone Girl also got a B and had killer legs but yeah. Like First Man, the studio tried to sell it as a much more exciting and action-packed film than it is and audiences still didn't take to it.

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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW Gone Girl also got a B and had killer legs but yeah. Like First Man, the studio tried to sell it as a much more exciting and action-packed film than it is and audiences still didn't take to it.

Yeah, Venom also.

 

But considering it is a critical darling, one would have expected better.

 

I had a feeling it was coming though after seeing social media reactions.

 

A common gripe seems to be unlikable  characters.

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12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Last year saw 7 of the 9 Best Picture nominees open in the final two months of the year and went on to make between $81M to $18M (and only one of them - The Post - wasn't an indie) so I don't think it's a matter of competing with the tentpoles. This year's crop of contenders, both the mainstream fare (minus A Star is Born) and the indies, just hasn't really connected for whatever reason.

I mean with ASIB being locked for a nom and BP being a very good bet, I’d say those two alone will make this the most relevant BP crop in ages. Maybe the indies aren’t connecting that well this year, but it’s been years since we’ve really had two huge box office hits that are legitimate contenders. MPR is also picking up steam as a dark horse BP nom, which if that happens too it truly will be the most relevant Oscars in well over a decade. 

 

As for the rest, I’d say look out for Green Book to make a dent at the box office. Could definitely see it having a slow build, leggy run to 100+ with great WOM among the adult crowd for the holidays. 

 

BKKK did better than could have been reasonably expected for that kind of film at the box office.

 

If Beale Street Could Talk is up in the air as to whether or not it gains much traction at the box office, but I think it could do alright for itself.

 

Roma has a limited theatrical engagement and is primarily a Netflix film, so it’s not fair to expect a lot from the box office.

 

The Favourite isn’t the kind of movie that would ever do much of anything commercially regardless of award hype.

 

Vice will probably flop, but that’s only because everyone is sick of politics in general right now. Hitting at the wrong time, otherwise it probably could have done well. So that along with First Man I’d say are likely the only strong contenders end up as a disappointment at the box office. The rest should do as expected or better.  

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean with ASIB being locked for a nom and BP being a very good bet, I’d say those two alone will make this the most relevant BP crop in ages. Maybe the indies aren’t connecting that well this year, but it’s been years since we’ve really had two huge box office hits that are legitimate contenders. MPR is also picking up steam as a dark horse BP nom, which if that happens too it truly will be the most relevant Oscars in well over a decade. 

 

As for the rest, I’d say look out for Green Book to make a dent at the box office. Could definitely see it having a slow build, leggy run to 100+ with great WOM among the adult crowd for the holidays. 

 

BKKK did better than could have been reasonably expected for that kind of film at the box office.

 

If Beale Street Could Talk is up in the air as to whether or not it gains much traction at the box office, but I think it could do alright for itself.

 

Roma has a limited theatrical engagement and is primarily a Netflix film, so it’s not fair to expect a lot from the box office.

 

The Favourite isn’t the kind of movie that would ever do much of anything commercially regardless of award hype.

 

Vice will probably flop, but that’s only because everyone is sick of politics in general right now. Hitting at the wrong time, otherwise it probably could have done well. So that along with First Man I’d say are likely the only strong contenders end up as a disappointment at the box office. The rest should do as expected or better.  

 

 

 

Green Book posted only a $12K average from 25 theaters this past weekend and is tracking for a mid-single digits wide bow this upcoming weekend. It'll be gone by Christmas unless matters really improve.

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Difference between ASIB and all those other Oscar hopefuls that didn't open well (Widows, Green Book, First man, etc) is that ASIB entered the theaters as a big favorite to WIN which gives a movie an urgency to be seen, as opposed to movies only hoping to get nominated. Granted, ASIB has more cross-appeal too as well as an actual star power (which Gosling, Viola, Viggo, etc are not) but being marked as a potential winner is an advantage over "maybe nominated, maybe not". Also, it was smartly released as counter-programming to Venom, instead of trying to elbow its way among direct competition. 

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Plently of movies have had winning buzz and made nowhere near what A Star is Born has made. I think it does a disservice to A Star is Born's box office run to say that it made money because of Oscar buzz. That doesn't account for a 42.9-44.2mil opening. Also First Man did have " best picture winning" Oscar buzz and it didn't open with 40 million dollars. 

 

The Oscars are nowhere near happening yet. It is not a late December release. The film has very commercial aspects to it that helped it out. It's a remake, it's starring an A-lister like Cooper in the kind of role people like him in. It's also starring one of the greatest pop vocalists around in the first movie where she isn't just playing herself. 

 

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the success of ASIB had almost nothing to do with oscar buzz,  it is the movie itself is more accessible to public, romance + music, with lady gaga + cooper star power.

 

All those are your typical feel good drama that pave the way for 200m success  

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17 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I get the feeling Warner Bros wasn't expecting the reviews of Fantastic Beasts to be worse than The Meg! 

and unlike FB2, The Meg overcame reviews cause people loved the movie. WB had more luck with riskier fare this year than with supposed sure fire FB2. 

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