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Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

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5 hours ago, AndyK said:

B CinemaScore for Widows is not a good sign.

FWIW Gone Girl also got a B and had killer legs but yeah. Like First Man, the studio tried to sell it as a much more exciting and action-packed film than it is and audiences still didn't take to it.

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Widows is good but it does take a while to get to the heist but I guess that was inevitable, wonder if McQueen should have done it is a miniseries. 

Edited by Jonwo

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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW Gone Girl also got a B and had killer legs but yeah. Like First Man, the studio tried to sell it as a much more exciting and action-packed film than it is and audiences still didn't take to it.

Yeah, Venom also.

 

But considering it is a critical darling, one would have expected better.

 

I had a feeling it was coming though after seeing social media reactions.

 

A common gripe seems to be unlikable  characters.

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Trump: "i want a great climate". Yippie! We all want a great climate. Great!

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12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Last year saw 7 of the 9 Best Picture nominees open in the final two months of the year and went on to make between $81M to $18M (and only one of them - The Post - wasn't an indie) so I don't think it's a matter of competing with the tentpoles. This year's crop of contenders, both the mainstream fare (minus A Star is Born) and the indies, just hasn't really connected for whatever reason.

I mean with ASIB being locked for a nom and BP being a very good bet, I’d say those two alone will make this the most relevant BP crop in ages. Maybe the indies aren’t connecting that well this year, but it’s been years since we’ve really had two huge box office hits that are legitimate contenders. MPR is also picking up steam as a dark horse BP nom, which if that happens too it truly will be the most relevant Oscars in well over a decade. 

 

As for the rest, I’d say look out for Green Book to make a dent at the box office. Could definitely see it having a slow build, leggy run to 100+ with great WOM among the adult crowd for the holidays. 

 

BKKK did better than could have been reasonably expected for that kind of film at the box office.

 

If Beale Street Could Talk is up in the air as to whether or not it gains much traction at the box office, but I think it could do alright for itself.

 

Roma has a limited theatrical engagement and is primarily a Netflix film, so it’s not fair to expect a lot from the box office.

 

The Favourite isn’t the kind of movie that would ever do much of anything commercially regardless of award hype.

 

Vice will probably flop, but that’s only because everyone is sick of politics in general right now. Hitting at the wrong time, otherwise it probably could have done well. So that along with First Man I’d say are likely the only strong contenders end up as a disappointment at the box office. The rest should do as expected or better.  

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean with ASIB being locked for a nom and BP being a very good bet, I’d say those two alone will make this the most relevant BP crop in ages. Maybe the indies aren’t connecting that well this year, but it’s been years since we’ve really had two huge box office hits that are legitimate contenders. MPR is also picking up steam as a dark horse BP nom, which if that happens too it truly will be the most relevant Oscars in well over a decade. 

 

As for the rest, I’d say look out for Green Book to make a dent at the box office. Could definitely see it having a slow build, leggy run to 100+ with great WOM among the adult crowd for the holidays. 

 

BKKK did better than could have been reasonably expected for that kind of film at the box office.

 

If Beale Street Could Talk is up in the air as to whether or not it gains much traction at the box office, but I think it could do alright for itself.

 

Roma has a limited theatrical engagement and is primarily a Netflix film, so it’s not fair to expect a lot from the box office.

 

The Favourite isn’t the kind of movie that would ever do much of anything commercially regardless of award hype.

 

Vice will probably flop, but that’s only because everyone is sick of politics in general right now. Hitting at the wrong time, otherwise it probably could have done well. So that along with First Man I’d say are likely the only strong contenders end up as a disappointment at the box office. The rest should do as expected or better.  

 

 

 

Green Book posted only a $12K average from 25 theaters this past weekend and is tracking for a mid-single digits wide bow this upcoming weekend. It'll be gone by Christmas unless matters really improve.

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Difference between ASIB and all those other Oscar hopefuls that didn't open well (Widows, Green Book, First man, etc) is that ASIB entered the theaters as a big favorite to WIN which gives a movie an urgency to be seen, as opposed to movies only hoping to get nominated. Granted, ASIB has more cross-appeal too as well as an actual star power (which Gosling, Viola, Viggo, etc are not) but being marked as a potential winner is an advantage over "maybe nominated, maybe not". Also, it was smartly released as counter-programming to Venom, instead of trying to elbow its way among direct competition. 

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If J. J. Abrams hadn’t written out Will Tippen, would Bradley Cooper be such a huge star right now?

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Plently of movies have had winning buzz and made nowhere near what A Star is Born has made. I think it does a disservice to A Star is Born's box office run to say that it made money because of Oscar buzz. That doesn't account for a 42.9-44.2mil opening. Also First Man did have " best picture winning" Oscar buzz and it didn't open with 40 million dollars. 

 

The Oscars are nowhere near happening yet. It is not a late December release. The film has very commercial aspects to it that helped it out. It's a remake, it's starring an A-lister like Cooper in the kind of role people like him in. It's also starring one of the greatest pop vocalists around in the first movie where she isn't just playing herself. 

 

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the success of ASIB had almost nothing to do with oscar buzz,  it is the movie itself is more accessible to public, romance + music, with lady gaga + cooper star power.

 

All those are your typical feel good drama that pave the way for 200m success  

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Friday and Saturday estimates reduced, Sunday increased. Total same.

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

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I get the feeling Warner Bros wasn't expecting the reviews of Fantastic Beasts to be worse than The Meg! 

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17 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I get the feeling Warner Bros wasn't expecting the reviews of Fantastic Beasts to be worse than The Meg! 

and unlike FB2, The Meg overcame reviews cause people loved the movie. WB had more luck with riskier fare this year than with supposed sure fire FB2. 

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26 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I get the feeling Warner Bros wasn't expecting the reviews of Fantastic Beasts to be worse than The Meg! 

and it's tied with JL. same time last year. 40% critics and 74% aud RT for JL. FB2 is 40% critics with more reviews being added and audscore is 70% and sliding slowly but noticeably (started at 75%, the increased to 77% and now 70%). 

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The Meg overcame reviews the same reason Venom did. Nobody was expecting anything but dumb fun. People weren't expecting real quality movies so there was no reason to care about reviews. The Harry Potter franchise is not in the same position I don't believe. I'd be surprised if FB2 had anything but middling legs at this point. And probably lack luster legs in many overseas markets. It still won't be a flop but it will probably hurt the franchise.

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15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The Meg overcame reviews the same reason Venom did. Nobody was expecting anything but dumb fun. People weren't expecting real quality movies so there was no reason to care about reviews. The Harry Potter franchise is not in the same position I don't believe. I'd be surprised if FB2 had anything but middling legs at this point. And probably lack luster legs in many overseas markets. It still won't be a flop but it will probably hurt the franchise.

People have high expectations from a franchise that didn't have a single movie with nothing but excellent word of mouth in 2 decades...

Life is so much easier when you are mediocre... :whosad:

 

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2 hours ago, eddyxx said:

If J. J. Abrams hadn’t written out Will Tippen, would Bradley Cooper be such a huge star right now?

Bradley asked J.J. to write him off the show. 

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46 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The Meg overcame reviews the same reason Venom did. Nobody was expecting anything but dumb fun. People weren't expecting real quality movies so there was no reason to care about reviews. The Harry Potter franchise is not in the same position I don't believe. I'd be surprised if FB2 had anything but middling legs at this point. And probably lack luster legs in many overseas markets. It still won't be a flop but it will probably hurt the franchise.

It'll be enough for Warner Bros to make changes. 

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