Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday

[Zakiyyah6]

Dropping from your original when your original only did 230mil is not good. And The Hobbit's drop wasn't good either, especially considering how LOTR performed. At least the Hobbit franchise was dealing with being billion or close to it grossers. No such luck for Beasts.

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Okay for those of you who are saying that it's a bad number, what exactly were you expecting? 60 million seems right where most prognosticators were predicting. So I don't know why everyone is starting off doom and gloom.

60M is quite a drop from the first movie's 74M and especially bad because they brought in Dumbledore to boost the boxoffice. Most people here expected FB2 to go up thanks to his return. It was later when trailer came out and buzz was barely detectable that they started to think it may go down from FB. And now fandom reaction sealed the deal. RT Audience Score is shit for a movie with built-in fandom made for fans. It isn't TLJ bad (yet) but it points at mixed WOM. 

[filmlover]

If this opens sub-$60M (not impossible, considering the preview numbers and the fact this will likely be very frontloaded), then that would definitely be very bad.

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

60M is quite a drop from the first movie's 74M and especially bad because they brought in Dumbledore to boost the boxoffice. Most people here expected FB2 to go up thanks to his return. It was later when trailer came out and buzz was barely detectable that they started to think it may go down from FB. And now fandom reaction sealed the deal. RT Audience Score is shit for a movie with built-in fandom made for fans. It isn't TLJ bad (yet) but it points at mixed WOM. 

maybe Dumbledore's return would've boosted the box office if he had more screen time

 

 

[Valonqar]

BR and ASIB will have higher dom totals than FB when all is said and done. Solo can breathe easier, finally a movie that will make less. 

 

@RealLyre Previews make it look like he has a lot of screen time yet OW is decreasing. So his screen time has nothing to do with it. It may have to do with legs when the word gets out but most people don't know that he isn't prominent yet.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Valonqar

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

BR and ASIB will have higher dom totals than FB when all is said and done. Solo can breathe easier, finally a movie that will make less. 

FB2 under CRA possible too if it does 63-64 ow and multi close to 2.7x.

[75Live]

24 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Okay for those of you who are saying that it's a bad number, what exactly were you expecting? 60 million seems right where most prognosticators were predicting. So I don't know why everyone is starting off doom and gloom.

 

I don't disagree, but I am pretty sure tracking had it closer to $65-70 even as recent at Tuesday.  Ok again, not even far from that so yeah the doom and gloom maybe a little much if it hits at least $60

 

now sub-$60 maybe a different story 😛  but it's too early to see if that will even happen anyway.

[MrGlass2]

For the "bad" numbers, everyone is still talking about Deadline's early preview estimates?

 

In any case with FB2 crashing in China, it looks like this year will see complete superhero domination at the WW box office.

[RealLyre]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am one of those who mostly loved the film, but yeah don't expect good legs. Not because the movie is dark, boring or confusing it is neither of those in a bad way but because it doesn't stand well as a standalone. It literally ends on a cliffhanger.

I found the stuff leading up to the cliffhanger (before the 3rd act) that doesn't involve Leta or Newt pretty boring.

 

and being "boring" is a criticism I've heard from multiple youtube reviewers so I'm not the only one.

 

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

FB2 under CRA possible too if it does 63-64 ow and multi close to 2.7x.

If it does sub-$60M this weekend that would mean a total potentially less than Halloween with the staying power it's looking to have. Now that would be embarrassing.

[Blaze Heatnix]

60-65 million opening weekend might put 200 million domestic total in jeopardy.

 

Things aren't looking good in China ( it seems Venom's second weekend might beat Fantastic Beasts opening weekend ), and China was the biggest overseas market for the first movie ( 85 million ). Now, it's set to make 43 million total.

 

Right now, I expect a total between X-Men Apocalypse's numbers ( 543 million ) and The Amazing Spider Man 1 or 2's numbers ( 757/708 million )

Edited November 16, 2018 by Blaze Heatnix

[Zakiyyah6]

I was pretty shocked that the first FB only made 85mil in China.

[SMmadrid90]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

BR and ASIB will have higher dom totals than FB when all is said and done. Solo can breathe easier, finally a movie that will make less. 

 

@RealLyre Previews make it look like he has a lot of screen time yet OW is decreasing. So his screen time has nothing to do with it. It may have to do with legs when the word gets out but most people don't know that he isn't prominent yet.

Do you remember that only 3 HP movies crossed 300M DOM? The first one,HBP and the last one so a sequel of a spin-off is expected to make 190-200 DOM even with Dumbledore. The key of this franchise is OS box office

[Premium George]

First FB had much better legs than people expected. Also, we don't even know the preview numbers. Maybe this will follow suit and pull a Fallen kingdom. China for sure has rejected this.

[Pinacolada]

4 minutes ago, Premium George said:

First FB had much better legs than people expected. Also, we don't even know the preview numbers. Maybe this will follow suit and pull a Fallen kingdom. China for sure has rejected this.

It's gonna do better than the OW of Fantastic Beasts 1 tho..... What's up with everyone saying China is rejecting it? It's not doing A LOT better, but still on par

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

4 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

It's gonna do better than the OW of Fantastic Beasts 1 tho..... What's up with everyone saying China is rejecting it? It's not doing A LOT better, but still on par

Bad WOM apparently. Also Venom is still going strong and will win the weekend. 

[MCKillswitch123]

We still don't know what the Thursday number is going to be, but it's safe to say that between this and Justice League, the third weekend of November is for WB what Memorial Day is for Disney: they keep putting tentpoles there that consistently underperform (hell, even Beasts 1 had a disappointing OW at the time, though it legged it out really strongly and had a massive OS result). It's been like that since Mockingjay Part 1, tbh, but especially noticeable now.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

We still don't know what the Thursday number is going to be, but it's safe to say that between this and Justice League, the third weekend of November is for WB what Memorial Day is for Disney: they keep putting tentpoles there that consistently underperform (hell, even Beasts 1 had a disappointing OW at the time, though it legged it out really strongly and had a massive OS result). It's been like that since Mockingjay Part 1, tbh, but especially noticeable now.

Frozen 2 is gonna clean up on the pre-Thanksgiving weekend next year. Problem is the product that keeps getting put here.

[RealLyre]

dang the previews for this started at 5PM, while FB1 previews started at 6PM. If FB2 can't match the original in previews while having screenings start 1 hour earlier then that doesn't bode well for the weekend..

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by RealLyre
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[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

We still don't know what the Thursday number is going to be, but it's safe to say that between this and Justice League, the third weekend of November is for WB what Memorial Day is for Disney: they keep putting tentpoles there that consistently underperform (hell, even Beasts 1 had a disappointing OW at the time, though it legged it out really strongly and had a massive OS result). It's been like that since Mockingjay Part 1, tbh, but especially noticeable now.

No, it isn't the same thing at all? FB1 made a very nice profit, and worldwide more than Solo and Alice 2 combined.