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2020 Box office discussion

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2 hours ago, Slambros said:

 

I do acknowledge this... Dune isn't something that everyone is going to have known about before the first trailer surfaces, that's for sure. But I still think that the film can strike a chord with audiences in a similar way to a LofR or GoT. It's a huge gamble to bank on it, but I do think it has a real shot with the director and talent it's garnered.

The book is much more complex and heavy that the Middle Earth and Harry Potter books. They are basically kids books compared to Dune. People are going to be seriously lost watching most of it. Dune will only work in an audience-friendly way if it was made into a TV show like GOT. 

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On 5/23/2019 at 6:46 PM, Rorschach said:

Don’t forget about Minions 2. 

 

...actually yeah, let’s all pretend it doesn’t exist for just a little while longer.

 You're right, I forgot about that one... it probably go a little past 1B

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The holiday season seems really lacking with no obvious 4 quadrant film:

- West Side Story seems like it could do $200M+ DOM

- Cruella would be lucky to do $150M DOM

- Croods 2 has a good chance to go sub $100M DOM as does Coming 2 America

 

WB should move GVK especially with KoTM looking soft to Christmas 2020. They have BOP Q1 so they don’t have much worries.

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Given that a lot of the big franchises of today are taking time off next year, I'm really hoping for an original film to be MASSIVE. That, or we get one or two good franchises started in 2020. 

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25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I loved onward teaser. I am predicting 100m OW/350m Dom/1b WW with china and japan breaking out.  let that win the year for disney.

 

 

 

Glad to see someone else on the Onward winning 2020 train.

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16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Given that a lot of the big franchises of today are taking time off next year, I'm really hoping for an original film to be MASSIVE. That, or we get one or two good franchises started in 2020. 

If any of Onward or Pete Docter film or Tenet or Dune breaks out, then having a "weak" 2020 is totally worth it.

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30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I loved onward teaser. I am predicting 100m OW/350m Dom/1b WW with china and japan breaking out.  let that win the year for disney.

A China break out is so hard to predict though, anywhere from $30M to $200M is possible...

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10 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

A China break out is so hard to predict though, anywhere from $30M to $200M is possible...

As I posted in Onward thread, this far out let us put in our hopes rather than prediction. Once we are in 3 weeks to release and early reviews we can predict more rationally,

 

I am hoping for 10B Yen in Japan and Coco numbers in China. :Venom:

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6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

A China break out is so hard to predict though, anywhere from $30M to $200M is possible...

Indeed. Inside out did basically nothing there wish makes no sense at all. (it was awesome imo)

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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Indeed. Inside out did basically nothing there wish makes no sense at all. (it was awesome imo)

Yep, such an unfortunate case, a break out in China could have pushed Inside Out to 1B+ territory, $857M with nearly nothing from China is really strong for an original output. 

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11 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

If any of Onward or Pete Docter film or Tenet or Dune breaks out, then having a "weak" 2020 is totally worth it.

Maybe it's the stink of BR2049, but I have a hard time seeing Dune break out in any major way. I'd go with 150-200M MAXIMUM until I see promotional material. 

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2020 might be weaker box office wise but I’m excited at all these new potential franchises and blockbusters opening is the best place for it to break out.

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This has magic. Not a atypical american family that IO had. There is nothing american about magical world.

....I'm not discrediting the film I said 800 minimum. Inside Out was incredible and China failed on that film IMO. My point was they don't like every great film. Some awesome ones just don't work, that one included.

 

I hope you are correct. It needs to be marketed heavily there.

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1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

2020 will be WAY weaker box office wise but I’m excited at all these new potential franchises and blockbusters opening is the best place for it to break out.

Agreed, FIFY

 

I love seeing original content go nuts. Other than Blair Witch.

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