2020 Box office discussion

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Not forgetting your less than 600m dom post either! Very sad

You better hope Avatar 2 performs like Spidey, The Dark Knight or Indy then.

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically non-adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-7.5%): 693.2m

Temple of Doom (-15.1%): 635.6m

The Dark Knight Rises (-16.23%): 627.5m

Age of Ultron (-26.37%): 551.5m

Shrek the Third (-26.9%): 547.8m

At World's End (-27%): 547.5m

Attack of the Clones (-30%): 525.2m

Empire Strikes Back (-31.9%): 510.2m

The Last Jedi (-33.79%): 495.9m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-34.5%): 490.3m

Batman Returns (-35.4%): 484m

The Lost World (-35.84%): 480.5m

Fallen Kingdom (-36%): 478m

Home Alone 2 (-39.2%): 454.6m

Ghostbusters 2 (-50.9%): 367.6m

Solo (-59.85% drop-off from Rogue One): 300.7m

The Godfather 2 (-64.5%): 266.1m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-66.3%): 252.2m

Jaws 2 (-70.1%): 223.8m

The Exorcist 2 (-84.1%): 119.1m

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to other movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-13.4%): 758.5m

The Dark Knight Rises (-22.5%): 679.2m

At World's End (-30.4%): 606.7m

Temple of Doom (-30.7%): 606.7m

Age of Ultron (-30.8%): 606.8m

Shrek the Third (-34%): 578.3m

The Last Jedi (-37.5%): 547.7m

Batman Returns (-37.7%): 545.9m

Home Alone 2 (-38.2%): 541.2m

Attack of the Clones (-38.7%): 537.1m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-41.5%): 512.6m

Fallen Kingdom (-42%): 508m

The Lost World (-42.1%): 507m

Empire Strikes Back (-44.7%): 484.2m

Ghostbusters 2 (-58.4%): 364.6m

Solo (-61.3%): 339m

The Godfather Part 2 (-67.7%): 283.2m

Jaws 2 (-74.1%): 227.3m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-82.7%): 151.2m

The Exorcist 2 (-86.6%): 117m

[Lothar]

17 minutes ago, PANDA said:

You better hope Avatar 2 performs like Spidey, The Dark Knight or Indy then.

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically non-adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-7.5%): 693.2m

Temple of Doom (-15.1%): 635.6m

The Dark Knight Rises (-16.23%): 627.5m

Age of Ultron (-26.37%): 551.5m

Shrek the Third (-26.9%): 547.8m

At World's End (-27%): 547.5m

Attack of the Clones (-30%): 525.2m

Empire Strikes Back (-31.9%): 510.2m

The Last Jedi (-33.79%): 495.9m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-34.5%): 490.3m

Batman Returns (-35.4%): 484m

The Lost World (-35.84%): 480.5m

Fallen Kingdom (-36%): 478m

Home Alone 2 (-39.2%): 454.6m

Ghostbusters 2 (-50.9%): 367.6m

Solo (-59.85% drop-off from Rogue One): 300.7m

The Godfather 2 (-64.5%): 266.1m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-66.3%): 252.2m

Jaws 2 (-70.1%): 223.8m

The Exorcist 2 (-84.1%): 119.1m

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to other movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-13.4%): 758.5m

The Dark Knight Rises (-22.5%): 679.2m

At World's End (-30.4%): 606.7m

Temple of Doom (-30.7%): 606.7m

Age of Ultron (-30.8%): 606.8m

Shrek the Third (-34%): 578.3m

The Last Jedi (-37.5%): 547.7m

Batman Returns (-37.7%): 545.9m

Home Alone 2 (-38.2%): 541.2m

Attack of the Clones (-38.7%): 537.1m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-41.5%): 512.6m

Fallen Kingdom (-42%): 508m

The Lost World (-42.1%): 507m

Empire Strikes Back (-44.7%): 484.2m

Ghostbusters 2 (-58.4%): 364.6m

Solo (-61.3%): 339m

The Godfather Part 2 (-67.7%): 283.2m

Jaws 2 (-74.1%): 227.3m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-82.7%): 151.2m

The Exorcist 2 (-86.6%): 117m

Just relax and let your mind go blank. That shouldn't be too hard for you.

Dr. Grace Augustine

[Alli]

oh god. is thins gonna turn into another Avatar thread?  We have other movies too. Avatar should be excluded from the conversation in this thread or else the stans will monopolize it

[Lothar]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

oh god. is thins gonna turn into another Avatar thread?  We have other movies too. Avatar should be excluded from the conversation in this thread or else the stans will monopolize it

Scared of A2 ?

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

oh god. is thins gonna turn into another Avatar thread?  We have other movies too. Avatar should be excluded from the conversation in this thread or else the stans will monopolize it

It’ll definitely be the most interesting Box Office question for 2020, of course it’ll be a center of discussion.

 

Idk about WW, but domestically I don’t think it has a great chance of increasing from Avatar.

Edited November 19, 2018 by PANDA

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, PANDA said:

You better hope Avatar 2 performs like Spidey, The Dark Knight or Indy then.

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically non-adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-7.5%): 693.2m

Temple of Doom (-15.1%): 635.6m

The Dark Knight Rises (-16.23%): 627.5m

Age of Ultron (-26.37%): 551.5m

Shrek the Third (-26.9%): 547.8m

At World's End (-27%): 547.5m

Attack of the Clones (-30%): 525.2m

Empire Strikes Back (-31.9%): 510.2m

The Last Jedi (-33.79%): 495.9m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-34.5%): 490.3m

Batman Returns (-35.4%): 484m

The Lost World (-35.84%): 480.5m

Fallen Kingdom (-36%): 478m

Home Alone 2 (-39.2%): 454.6m

Ghostbusters 2 (-50.9%): 367.6m

Solo (-59.85% drop-off from Rogue One): 300.7m

The Godfather 2 (-64.5%): 266.1m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-66.3%): 252.2m

Jaws 2 (-70.1%): 223.8m

The Exorcist 2 (-84.1%): 119.1m

 

Avatar 2 behaving like other sequels to other movies that adjust over 550m DOM (domestically adjusted)

Spider-Man 2 (-13.4%): 758.5m

The Dark Knight Rises (-22.5%): 679.2m

At World's End (-30.4%): 606.7m

Temple of Doom (-30.7%): 606.7m

Age of Ultron (-30.8%): 606.8m

Shrek the Third (-34%): 578.3m

The Last Jedi (-37.5%): 547.7m

Batman Returns (-37.7%): 545.9m

Home Alone 2 (-38.2%): 541.2m

Attack of the Clones (-38.7%): 537.1m

Beverly Hills Cop 2 (-41.5%): 512.6m

Fallen Kingdom (-42%): 508m

The Lost World (-42.1%): 507m

Empire Strikes Back (-44.7%): 484.2m

Ghostbusters 2 (-58.4%): 364.6m

Solo (-61.3%): 339m

The Godfather Part 2 (-67.7%): 283.2m

Jaws 2 (-74.1%): 227.3m

Independence Day: Resurgence (-82.7%): 151.2m

The Exorcist 2 (-86.6%): 117m

You see Panda the thing is that it won't perform like any of that list.

 

Jim sets trends and every time Jim sets a record he sounds like a broken record.

 

The Terminator to T2 sounds more up Jims street than anything you just said.

 

 

 

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You see Panda the thing is that it won't perform like any of that list.

 

Jim sets trends and every time Jim sets a record he sounds like a broken record.

 

The Terminator to T2 sounds more up Jims street than anything you just said.

 

 

 

Terminator was a small cult hit, and T2’s box office was impressive but not juggernaut level.

 

That’s a terrible comparison lol.

 

Lightning striking twice doesn’t guarantee lightning will strike thrice.

 

Not saying Avatar 2 won’t increase Domestic, I’m just saying it seems doubtful to me.  Especially when it’s not like the movie has stuck all that much in the public conscious the same way Titanic did.

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[MCKillswitch123]

........without mentioning the clear elephant in the room (whose name rhymes with Grab A Tar Too), I think 2020 sounds like it could have some heavy hitters box office-wise. Looking at Godzilla Vs. Kong, Mulan and (of course) Wonder Woman 1984 as potential juggernauts in the making. Watch out for Sing 2 as well..... don't know where would they take the story, but I think that it could actually increase to Despicable Me 2/Secret Life Of Pets heights with the right marketing. Really curious about how Doctor Sleep and Birds Of Prey perform too.

Edited November 19, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Alli]

What do you guts think about The Voyage of Doctor Dolittle ? The eddie Murphy movies were quite successful. Can RDJ mimic that success?

[MrGlass2]

7 hours ago, PANDA said:

I’ll wait till we have a full schedule but it could be the first year since 2016 that there is no 600m movie.  Maybe the first year since 2014 that there is no 500m movie.

Nonsense, Legendary will fast-track Detective Pikachu 2 in time for 2020.

[IronJimbo]

19 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Terminator was a small cult hit, and T2’s box office was impressive but not juggernaut level.

 

That’s a terrible comparison lol.

 

Lightning striking twice doesn’t guarantee lightning will strike thrice.

 

Not saying Avatar 2 won’t increase Domestic, I’m just saying it seems doubtful to me.  Especially when it’s not like the movie has stuck all that much in the public conscious the same way Titanic did.

I find the list you gave really odd, as if you used parameters specifically to make it look impossible.

 

Why wouldn't you mention Incredibles 2? Very odd. That's a film which much more similar circumstances than anything you just listed.

 

The Force Awakens is also a sequel.

 

Jurassic World...

 

1st Avengers...

 

Infinity War

 

your parameters are weird

 

Don't get why people try to mislead so hard just present facts in a respectable way

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by IronJimbo

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Nonsense, Legendary will fast-track Detective Pikachu 2 in time for 2020.

It’s only reasonable to not talk about the obvious billion dollar domestic outlier

[IronJimbo]

I mean I'm sure Black Panther is the highest grossing film of all time on a 3rd monday in February but while the red moon shines over the state of wyoming but who cares

[YM!]

In terms of underperforming, I think Black Widow will be the Cars 2 in Marvel’s winning streak, as I don’t see it doing over Venom numbers, in fact I think it may go sub $200M.

 

 

The Eternals can be big on the other hand. Like GOTG big if done right. 

 

 

Avatar 2 will decrease domestically but increase WW.

Edited November 20, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In terms of underperforming, I think Black Widow will be the Cars 2 in Marvel’s winning streak, as I don’t see it doing over Venom numbers, in fact I think it may go sub $200M.

 

 

The Eternals can be big on the other hand. Like GOTG big if done right. 

 

 

Avatar 2 will decrease domestically but increase WW.

Finally on the 3 billie train I see.

[The Panda]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

I find the list you gave really odd, as if you used parameters specifically to make it look impossible.

 

Why wouldn't you mention Incredibles 2? Very odd. That's a film which much more similar circumstances than anything you just listed.

 

The Force Awakens is also a sequel.

 

Jurassic World...

 

1st Avengers...

 

your parameters are weird

 

Don't get why people try to mislead so hard just present facts in a respectable way

 

Incredibles 2 was not a sequel to a 550m Adjusted DOM Movis (I just picked a DOM total small enough to get a decent sample size and large enough to constitute as juggernaut).  Not similar circumstances to Avatar 2 at all beyond a long waiting period, as The Incredibles was only a hit animated film, not a record breaker.

 

TFA is technically sequel, but it made more sense to break Star Wars up by trilogy.  It’d also technically be a sequel to Revenge of the Sith, which wouldn’t qualify TFA as a sequel to a 550m Adjusted DOM movie.  I guess you could throw Phantom Menace as a sequel to Return of the Jedi in there if you want, but wouldn’t give too much useful info.

 

Jurassic World isn’t a direct sequel to a 550m+ Adjusted DOM Movie.

 

1st Avengers, and Infinity War, are not direct sequels to a 550m Adjusted DOM Movie.

 

Im not misleading, I gave you the criteria I was using for the data pool.  None of those movies fit that linear criteria.

 

Granted, it could always turn out that Avatar 2 performs much differently that films under that criteria, but I’m skeptical given this is the only place I have seen Avatar talked about since like 2011.

[Mulder]

Honestly among the insiders/journos Avatar 2 talk isn't as nuts as it is among the cultists here, but it's not as negative as lot of average film fans. The general consensus seems to be "It hasn't stuck around in the public conscience but don't bet against James Cameron" which is in my opinion the most fair take.

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In terms of underperforming, I think Black Widow will be the Cars 2 in Marvel’s winning streak, as I don’t see it doing over Venom numbers, in fact I think it may go sub $200M.

 

  

 The Eternals can be big on the other hand. Like GOTG big if done right. 

 

 

 Avatar 2 will decrease domestically but increase WW.

Black Widow is a huge question mark, as I feel like it's not only wayyyyyy too late (the ship sailed from the moment they didn't pull the trigger on a solo movie of hers during the peak of her popularity, between Winter Soldier and Ultron) and not only will Wondie 2 have vastly more hype behind it, but I dunno exactly what is it good for in a post-Thanos world. I thought the point of Avengers 3/4 is to close the story of the original Avengers cast and we wouldn't have to milk movies centered on those characters anymore. That being said, if what I've read on the internet is right, there might be some mystery/urgency to BW's plot, and she is a popular character. Plus, that May (April?) slot is nigh infallible and historic for Marvel movies. Even Thor 1 opened to 60+ in there, and I wouldn't call that movie the Cars 2 of Marvel in neither quality (that would be Iron Man 2) or box office. And, well, don't count ever count out MCU flicks, these guys made a frontloaded, self-cornered Ant-Man sequel gross 216M DOM and that was seen as a disappointment, just so you get the standards they have with their grosses .

Edited November 20, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In terms of underperforming, I think Black Widow will be the Cars 2 in Marvel’s winning streak, as I don’t see it doing over Venom numbers, in fact I think it may go sub $200M.

 

 

The Eternals can be big on the other hand. Like GOTG big if done right. 

 

 

Avatar 2 will decrease domestically but increase WW.

Exchange Rates make me skeptical about Avatar 2 increasing (especially with a domestic decrease), even if global interest is the same or higher.  Yet the value of the dollar could always depreciate by then, so we’ll have to see.

 

2.7B is a lot of money.  Big budget spectacle entertainment also comes out every week now.

 

It’s just such a different environment from 2009 that it makes Avatar 2 a really tough movie to predict.  An increase from Avatar would be slightly surprising but not totally shocking imo.  Staying relatively flat seems like a realistic possibility.  Having a major drop off also seems realistic.

 

There’s also very few sequels phenomenon movies that waited this long to be made.  That makes it hard to figure out if it’ll be to Avatar’s benefit or if it’ll hurt Avatar 2.  There’s a case to be made either way.