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2020 Box office discussion

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Just now, john2000 said:

doubt it , i dont see ww 2 making more than 500 dom,for it to match captain marvel it would need 200 million increase in os,( if we take 500 dom), and i dont see it making 600 os

$1.128 Billion is reachable figure .. WW is now a well established character. hype is there & a positive wave coz of first part success ..

 

 

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Just now, Sunny Max said:

$1.128 Billion is reachable figure .. WW is now a well established character. hype is there & a positive wave coz of first part success ..

 

 

still i dont see a 200-300 increase from os

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14 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I was thinking after SLOP 2 that Minions 2 might be in danger of having a massive decease from the first but seeing how empty July and August is of major family fare (other than Jungle Cruise) $1 Billion seems likely IMO (Despicable Me 3 numbers wouldn't shock me). 

Rumble is there but that won’t do much anyways.

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Mentioning the films I think can hit 100M DOM:

  1. Bad Boys For Life
  2. Birds Of Prey (And The Emancipation Of One Harley Quinn)
  3. Onward
  4. Godzilla Vs. Kong
  5. A Quiet Place: Part II
  6. Mulan
  7. No Time To Die
  8. Black Widow
  9. Scoob!
  10. Fast & Furious 9
  11. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On The Run
  12. Wonder Woman 1984
  13. Soul
  14. King Of Staten Island
  15. Top Gun: Maverick
  16. In The Heights
  17. Minions: The Rise Of Gru
  18. Free Guy
  19. Ghostbusters 2020
  20. Tenet
  21. Malignant
  22. The Conjuring 3
  23. Venom 2
  24. Halloween Kills
  25. The Eternals
  26. Raya And The Last Dragon
  27. West Side Story
  28. Uncharted
  29. Tom And Jerry
  30. The Croods 2

On the fence about a few, like Jungle Cruise, Death On The Nile and Dune. Right now, I feel like these are the ones with ceilings at or above 100M.

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2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Mentioning the films I think can hit 100M DOM:

  1. Bad Boys For Life
  2. Birds Of Prey (And The Emancipation Of One Harley Quinn)
  3. Onward
  4. Godzilla Vs. Kong
  5. A Quiet Place: Part II
  6. Mulan
  7. No Time To Die
  8. Black Widow
  9. Scoob!
  10. Fast & Furious 9
  11. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On The Run
  12. Wonder Woman 1984
  13. Soul
  14. King Of Staten Island
  15. Top Gun: Maverick
  16. In The Heights
  17. Minions: The Rise Of Gru
  18. Free Guy
  19. Ghostbusters 2020
  20. Tenet
  21. Malignant
  22. The Conjuring 3
  23. Venom 2
  24. Halloween Kills
  25. The Eternals
  26. Raya And The Last Dragon
  27. West Side Story
  28. Uncharted
  29. Tom And Jerry
  30. The Croods 2

On the fence about a few, like Jungle Cruise, Death On The Nile and Dune. Right now, I feel like these are the ones with ceilings at or above 100M.

Jungle Cruise is probably hitting 100 mil. Even Tomorrowland hit 93 mil. This should have better WoM and also has Dwayne Johnson star power.

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3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Mentioning the films I think can hit 100M DOM:

  1. Bad Boys For Life
  2. Birds Of Prey (And The Emancipation Of One Harley Quinn)
  3. Onward
  4. Godzilla Vs. Kong
  5. A Quiet Place: Part II
  6. Mulan
  7. No Time To Die
  8. Black Widow
  9. Scoob!
  10. Fast & Furious 9
  11. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On The Run
  12. Wonder Woman 1984
  13. Soul
  14. King Of Staten Island
  15. Top Gun: Maverick
  16. In The Heights
  17. Minions: The Rise Of Gru
  18. Free Guy
  19. Ghostbusters 2020
  20. Tenet
  21. Malignant
  22. The Conjuring 3
  23. Venom 2
  24. Halloween Kills
  25. The Eternals
  26. Raya And The Last Dragon
  27. West Side Story
  28. Uncharted
  29. Tom And Jerry
  30. The Croods 2

On the fence about a few, like Jungle Cruise, Death On The Nile and Dune. Right now, I feel like these are the ones with ceilings at or above 100M.

Jungle Cruise will absolutely make 100M. I think it will do over 200M easily.

 

Tenet 250M imo

 

West Side Story 200M

 

Top Gun 2 Under 100M or barely making it

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Dune is a huge wild card for 2020. Part of what makes 2020 look so dull in comparison to the last several years is the lack of a slam dunk tentpole in December. If they hit it out of the park with Dune and make it a Lord of the Rings lite it'll make a big difference.

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14 hours ago, Alli said:

Jungle Cruise will absolutely make 100M. I think it will do over 200M easily.

 

Tenet 250M imo

 

West Side Story 200M

 

Top Gun 2 Under 100M or barely making it

Don't see why Jungle Cruise would make nearly twice as much as Maleficent 2. I just feel like The Rock's very few less successful movies and the Disney live-action bombs of the last few years make it an uncertainty. And the fact that it looks like a Jumanji 2.0 will only hurt it, me thinks. It does have star power, a good director, not much competition and Summer days to boost it, so it's definitely not impossible, but I feel like at best, it could hit like 120.

 

Sounds a bit high for Tenet, but hey, Nolan + spies give it a high ceiling.

 

200 for West Side Story I think is possible if it has Oscar buzz. Without it, it's doing Mary Poppins Returns numbers at best.

 

Agreed on Top Gun 2. But I'm leaning towards it pulling an Independence Day 2 and cracking the mark.

13 hours ago, JB33 said:

Dune is a huge wild card for 2020. Part of what makes 2020 look so dull in comparison to the last several years is the lack of a slam dunk tentpole in December. If they hit it out of the park with Dune and make it a Lord of the Rings lite it'll make a big difference.

Yeah, Dune is a wildcard. I think it could do well with the Christmas release really pushing it - Blade Runner 2049 came really close to 100M in October, after all. But it sounds like hardcore Villeneuve and that could be a mainstream turn-off even with all the fantasy elements at play. It depends on how audiences recieve a film like that.

12 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Pain and misery. Zero 500m, 1 400m domestic. 10% or more drop domestically, actual drop WW too.

I think WW84 has a shot at 500. Not a big one, but one nonetheless. On top of that, I wouldn't be surprised at either Eternals or Soul hitting 400. Absolutely agreed that there will be a drop both DOM and WW.

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