2020 Box office discussion

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Honestly among the insiders/journos Avatar 2 talk isn't as nuts as it is among the cultists here, but it's not as negative as lot of average film fans. The general consensus seems to be "It hasn't stuck around in the public conscience but don't bet against James Cameron" which is in my opinion the most fair take.

The table of drop-offs I showed still would indicate a very big hit domestic as long as it doesn’t perform like Solo, Exorcist 2, Resurgence or Jaws 2 (which id be highly doubtful Avatar 2 would perform like them.  Those sequels had other problems plaguing them),

 

I’m just skeptical that it’s going to perform in the IW - TFA range until we start seeing some evidence that it’s looking to perform in that range.

 

I wouldn’t bet against Cameron, but I’m not necessarily going all in on him either when data wouldn’t suggest Avatar 2 having an increase to be all that likely (while data would suggest an original Sci-Fi/Fantasy juggernaut isn’t unlikely at all).

Edited November 20, 2018 by PANDA

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Incredibles 2 was not a sequel to a 550m Adjusted DOM Movis (I just picked a DOM total small enough to get a decent sample size and large enough to constitute as juggernaut).  Not similar circumstances to Avatar 2 at all beyond a long waiting period, as The Incredibles was only a hit animated film, not a record breaker.

 

TFA is technically sequel, but it made more sense to break Star Wars up by trilogy.  It’d also technically be a sequel to Revenge of the Sith, which wouldn’t qualify TFA as a sequel to a 550m Adjusted DOM movie.  I guess you could throw Phantom Menace as a sequel to Return of the Jedi in there if you want, but wouldn’t give too much useful info.

 

Jurassic World isn’t a direct sequel to a 550m+ Adjusted DOM Movie.

 

1st Avengers, and Infinity War, are not direct sequels to a 550m Adjusted DOM Movie.

 

Im not misleading, I gave you the criteria I was using for the data pool.  None of those movies fit that linear criteria.

 

Granted, it could always turn out that Avatar 2 performs much differently that films under that criteria, but I’m skeptical given this is the only place I have seen Avatar talked about since like 2011.

Well I think that the data pool you gave is limiting and doesn't give a good picture of likely Avatar 2 scenarios. You did provide data so hats of for that but I'm off to bed so none from me.

[Mulder]

Just now, PANDA said:

The table of drop-offs I showed still would indicate a very big hit domestic as long as it doesn’t perform like Solo, Exorcist 2, Resurgence or Jaws 2 (which id be highly doubtful Avatar 2 would perform like them.  Those sequels had other problems plaguing them),

 

I’m just skeptical that it’s going to perform in the IW - TFA range until we start seeing some evidence that it’s looking to perform in that range.

 

I wouldn’t bet against Cameron, but I’m not necessarily going all in on him either. 

That's my take on it. I don't think you can ignore the general feeling of "meh" among people online either, I just don't know if that'll be the GA's reaction to Avatar 2 plus worldwide that doesn't really count for much.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Exchange Rates make me skeptical about Avatar 2 increasing (especially with a domestic decrease), even if global interest is the same or higher.  Yet the value of the dollar could always depreciate by then, so we’ll have to see.

 

2.7B is a lot of money.  Big budget spectacle entertainment also comes out every week now.

 

It’s just such a different environment from 2009 that it makes Avatar 2 a really tough movie to predict.  An increase from Avatar would be slightly surprising but not totally shocking imo.  Staying relatively flat seems like a realistic possibility.  Having a major drop off also seems realistic.

 

There’s also very few sequels phenomenon movies that waited this long to be made.  That makes it hard to figure out if it’ll be to Avatar’s benefit or if it’ll hurt Avatar 2.  There’s a case to be made either way.

I also feel exchange rates will hurt but simultaneously China will be its saving grace. I’m not in the $800M or even $500M camp like some users are but I can see a decent $300M. 

 

Thinking something like: $120M/$600M/$2.2B/$2.8B

[Mulder]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I also feel exchange rates will hurt but simultaneously China will be its saving grace. I’m not in the $800M or even $500M camp like some users are but I can see a decent $300M. 

 

Thinking something like: $120M/$600M/$2.2B/$2.8B

That'd be a really leggy run for a sequel. @Your numbers but I agree with that OW

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

That's my take on it. I don't think you can ignore the general feeling of "meh" among people online either, I just don't know if that'll be the GA's reaction to Avatar 2 plus worldwide that doesn't really count for much.

Yeah, my mind is thinking 8 years of group think in the Avatar 2 thread has gotten the cameronites out of check of what’s realistic for the movie.

 

3B is not impossible WW, and it’s not impossible for an increase Domestically.  But the laws of the box office pretty much always have sequels to big event movies decreasing.

 

Infinity War would be the only potential asterisk, but that’s a sequel to Age of Ultron (which was a big hit, probably not a BO phenomenon) and a build up from a buttload of movies.  I don’t see an Avatar 2 comparison to it.

 

And to counter any cameronites saying Cameron has defied box office laws before.  No he hasn’t.  Movies like Avatar and Titanic (original sci-fi epics and period epics) being the top grossing movies of all time, or even massive box office hits is not unprecedented in the slightest.  Not knocking how crazy their runs were (they’re crazy), but previous box office data wouldn’t show their runs to be impossible at all.

 

What is completely unprecedented is a direct sequel to a box office juggernaut having a massive increase for its predecessor.  Unprecedented doesn’t mean impossible though, but it does mean I wouldn’t predict it.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Yeah, my mind is thinking 8 years of group think in the Avatar 2 thread has gotten the cameronites out of check of what’s realistic for the movie.

 

3B is not impossible WW, and it’s not impossible for an increase Domestically.  But the laws of the box office pretty much always have sequels to big event movies decreasing.

 

Infinity War would be the only potential asterisk, but that’s a sequel to Age of Ultron (which was a big hit, probably not a BO phenomenon) and a build up from a buttload of movies.  I don’t see an Avatar 2 comparison to it.

 

And to counter any cameronites saying Cameron has defied box office laws before.  No he hasn’t.  Movies like Avatar and Titanic (original sci-fi epics and period epics) being the top grossing movies of all time, or even massive box office hits is not unprecedented in the slightest.  Not knocking how crazy their runs were (they’re crazy), but previous box office data wouldn’t show their runs to be impossible at all.

 

What is completely unprecedented is a direct sequel to a box office juggernaut having a massive increase for its predecessor.  Unprecedented doesn’t mean impossible though, but it does mean I wouldn’t predict it.

Also Titanic and the original Avatar had way better good will going in then Avatar has had after years of analysis and mockery.

[The Panda]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I also feel exchange rates will hurt but simultaneously China will be its saving grace. I’m not in the $800M or even $500M camp like some users are but I can see a decent $300M. 

 

Thinking something like: $120M/$600M/$2.2B/$2.8B

I’d probably be more conservative on it, but you may end up spot on.

 

Currently I’d think

 

120mish OW / 550mish DOM / 300m China / 1B INT / 1.85b WW

 

Which is a huge hit and shouldn’t be seen as pessimistic.

[TomeRide]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

4 billies no less

Hey man, lets not get ahead of ourselves. 

 

 

$3.5B would be fine too. 

[TomeRide]

21 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I also feel exchange rates will hurt but simultaneously China will be its saving grace. I’m not in the $800M or even $500M camp like some users are but I can see a decent $300M. 

 

Thinking something like: $120M/$600M/$2.2B/$2.8B

$300M is just too fucking low. The original made $200M right before the market expansion. I don't think people get how obscene $200M was for China back then. Just consider the fact that it broke the previous record by almost 4 times in local currency (almost 5 times in USD). This baby isn't falling below $500M in China. 

 

And its definitely opening above $120M domestically. If ticket price inflation continues in its current pace (about 3.3% a year), then we're looking at around $9.9 a ticket by the release of Avatar 2. That means the first film's opening adjusts to $100M. I don't see how its opening only 20% higher than that. Its going for $140M+, at the very least. 

[Kalo]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In terms of underperforming, I think Black Widow will be the Cars 2 in Marvel’s winning streak, as I don’t see it doing over Venom numbers, in fact I think it may go sub $200M.

 

 

The Eternals can be big on the other hand. Like GOTG big if done right. 

 

 

Avatar 2 will decrease domestically but increase WW.

Black Widow is more likely to gross over $400m then Venom numbers, fans have been screaming for a BW movie for almost a decade now. And if it really does have the prime May release it will be massive. unless something goes terribly wrong with the MCU between now and then. right now I'm pegging it at $350m.

[TomCruiseTop]

A2 is more likely to make over $3B than under $2B. 

 

The mental gymnastics in this thread to convince themselves it won't make bank is interesting to see. 

 

The best comparisons to make are Alien to Aliens and T1 to T2. 

 

T1 was a small cult hit sure, A1 will look similar once A2 is out. 

 

16B worldwide is a lock. 

[jedijake]

2020 will be a strange year and will seem stranger coming off of 2019.

 

Avatar 2 will certainly dominate. With Disney owning Fox, they will once again claim the top spot. Other than that, there's a HUGE question mark.

 

Mulan could be "big-ish". Maleficent probably won't be (although I don't see it suffering the way Alice 2 did).

 

What's the status of Indy 5? No production, no filming date, no cast? Not so sure about this one. Is it coming in 2021?

 

Furious? Yeah-big "ish".

 

Disney will have two pixar films that will be brand new (thankfully) but there's little to no information on either. The shake up at pixar will really have an impact.

 

Thank heavens we'll have Jungle Book and Wonder Woman 2 that summer otherwise the summer would be a dismal wasteland.

 

And the absolute lack of announced Marvel films at THIS point is really troubling. GOTG3 was going to take that spot but not any more. We already know there's no SW films and we may not have any summer Marvel films either. That'd be a big WOW and hit on the box office. I suspect WW1984 to be the winner in the summer.

 

And Zilla vs Kong? Again, LOTS of mid-tier films.

 

Fantastic Beasts is dead in the water.

 

At least 2021 should give us Black Panther 2, Spiderman 3, Little Mermaid (I predict).

Edited November 20, 2018 by jedijake

[The Panda]

6 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

A2 is more likely to make over $3B than under $2B. 

 

The mental gymnastics in this thread to convince themselves it won't make bank is interesting to see. 

 

The best comparisons to make are Alien to Aliens and T1 to T2. 

 

T1 was a small cult hit sure, A1 will look similar once A2 is out. 

 

16B worldwide is a lock. 

I believe 1.85B is in fact making bank, it’s just not going unrealistically wild with expectations.

 

You guys are setting yourself up for a meltdown and people calling Avatar 2 a flop when it ends up in the top 3 of the year (probably #1) in the 400-800m DOM range and 1B-3B WW.

 

And yes, that is a really wide range, but I’d be fairly confident it ends up falling within it (and I’m pretty certain at this point anywhere in that range wouldn’t satisfy cameronites, even though it should because even the low end is a big blockbuster hit).

[Kalo]

6 hours ago, jedijake said:

2020 will be a strange year and will seem stranger coming off of 2019.

 

Avatar 2 will certainly dominate. With Disney owning Fox, they will once again claim the top spot. Other than that, there's a HUGE question mark.

 

Mulan could be "big-ish". Maleficent probably won't be (although I don't see it suffering the way Alice 2 did).

 

What's the status of Indy 5? No production, no filming date, no cast? Not so sure about this one. Is it coming in 2021?

 

Furious? Yeah-big "ish".

 

Disney will have two pixar films that will be brand new (thankfully) but there's little to no information on either. The shake up at pixar will really have an impact.

 

Thank heavens we'll have Jungle Book and Wonder Woman 2 that summer otherwise the summer would be a dismal wasteland.

 

And the absolute lack of announced Marvel films at THIS point is really troubling. GOTG3 was going to take that spot but not any more. We already know there's no SW films and we may not have any summer Marvel films either. That'd be a big WOW and hit on the box office. I suspect WW1984 to be the winner in the summer.

 

And Zilla vs Kong? Again, LOTS of mid-tier films.

 

Fantastic Beasts is dead in the water.

 

At least 2021 should give us Black Panther 2, Spiderman 3, Little Mermaid (I predict).

It's not 100% confirmed yet, but pretty reliable sources have Black Widow for the May 1st opening, and The Eternals (another Marvel film) for Nov 6th. so there will be a Marvel film in the summer. And considering BW is purposed to start filming early next year and reportedly Eternals next Sept, it seems to fit the bill. One could be Doctor Strange 2 I guess. but that and Black Panther 2 will probably be 2021 releases. 

[The Panda]

As for the Marvel movies, it’s too hard to tell this far out but I’m not expecting Black Widow to be too huge.  Probably a little bigger than AMATW.

 

The Eternals could be a big hit though, I think the cosmic/Sci-Fi stuff resonates well (see GOTG, Ragnarok, IW and Black Panther)

 

Who knows about the unannounced third movie

Edited November 20, 2018 by PANDA

[TomeRide]

10 hours ago, jedijake said:

What's the status of Indy 5? No production, no filming date, no cast? Not so sure about this one. Is it coming in 2021?

 

Was indeed pushed to July 9th, 2021.

[ZeeSoh]

Avatar 2 will see a big increase and huge numbers in China. The first one was big at its time and very well received. If the Fast and Furious series and Avengers can make close to 400 then Avatar 2 will definitely make 500 there. 

 

DOM will probably decrease. EU and Japan may stay same or decrease a bit whereas Asian markets will show big jumps due to market growth. I think somewhere around the original gross is a safe bet at this point. 

 

As for BW, I think it will be somewhere around Ant Man 1 and 2 in gross. Its almost a non essential movie in the MCU story wise and will be the first one to not progress the overall story (if the rumours that its set in the past are true). 

 

Eternals are a toss up but if they are anything like Guardians then it should do well. It will only be the second one after Guardians to be focused on the cosmic stuff and people seem to dig it

Edited November 20, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[salvador-232]

I'm curious about how Avatar 2 will do in Latin America. If you look at the numbers of Avatar 1 the latin american ones are easily the least impressive (It still did very good, but, like Ice Age/Maleficent range good). Besides the ER are so bad compared to 2010 that is not even funny (though they could improve, but who knows, doesn't look likely with the trade war) 

 

Luckily for Avatar Latin America was a tiny part of its gross (relatively speaking).

Edited November 20, 2018 by salvador-232

[KP1025]

If I remember correctly, Avatar made over $1 billion in Europe alone. But with the ER the way it is now, I can't see the sequel coming close to that.

 

France- $176 million

Germany- $162 million

U.K- $150 million

Russia- $117 million

Spain- $110 million

Italy- $83 million

 

All of these grosses except for U.K. seem nearly impossible in the market today, especially Russia. 

 

Other major markets for Avatar which have taken a big hit in ER since 2010:

 

Japan: $172 million

Australia: $106 million

 

The growth in China alone could potentially negate these declines though.