Thanksgiving Weekend Thread: ESTIMATES (Page 40) | Ralph 55.7M (84.5M Total) | Creed II 35.3M (55.8M Total) | The Grinch 30.2M | Grindelwald 29.7M | Robin Hood 9.1M (14.2M Total) | AMAZING BLACK FRIDAY SALE

[The Futurist]

Nobody from BOT spent time with Robin Hood ?

 

[kitik]

7 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Nobody from Planet Earth spent time with Robin Hood ?

 

 

fyp

[a2k]

Expected close to 40% drop on Thu going by sequelitis and growth of previews annually

18.5

11

23 (+110%)

22.5

15 (-33%)

= 90

Edited November 23, 2018 by a2k

[AlephNull]

15 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Can we officially cancel Johnny Depp now? Or Hollywood will continue to give second chances to the monster?

Can we officially cancel You and every garbage poster on this forum who parrots every opinion they have from the media? What do you know about the situation first hand? What kind of monster is he? How many of his previous spouses did he abuse? Where is your proof, monster? You are a shill for a no-talent like Amber Heard, pathetic.

[sfran43]

12 minutes ago, AlephNull said:

Can we officially cancel You and every garbage poster on this forum who parrots every opinion they have from the media? What do you know about the situation first hand? What kind of monster is he? How many of his previous spouses did he abuse? Where is your proof, monster? You are a shill for a no-talent like Amber Heard, pathetic.

Depp?! Is that you?!!🤔

[a2k]

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It is a bit on higher side. The previous 4 Disney toon films dipped under 20% from pure Wednesday, Ralph is looking at 30%.

 

I honestly wish it come around 25% if it has to break $95mn 5 days, but that seems a big ask.

Coco and Moana did 2.9 and 3x their 5-day respectively. Looking at some front-loading I think 2.6-2.7x for WIR2.

 

87.5-92.5 5-day gives 227.5-249.75 with that multiplier.

 

Beating Grinch is not set in stone yet and will be fun to track!

[a2k]

24 minutes ago, AlephNull said:

Can we officially cancel You and every garbage poster on this forum who parrots every opinion they have from the media? What do you know about the situation first hand? What kind of monster is he? How many of his previous spouses did he abuse? Where is your proof, monster? You are a shill for a no-talent like Amber Heard, pathetic.

[stripe]

3 hours ago, Welfin said:

It'll be lucky to hit 160. 

 

6.5M

12M

11.5M

6.5M

 

So 117-120M after Thanksgiving

 

Only 40M more after a a 30M second weekend? A family film? Without any competition for next two weekends? I know next weekend the drop will be huge, but not that huge. And it will stabilize. Add in Christmas last push and FB2 will cross 170M

 

[a2k]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Fantastic Beasts⁠: The Crimes of Grindelwald⁠ $4,419,585 from 2634 Locs, -7% from Wednesday at same time, rather surprisingly good hold. The first one dipped 12% on Thursday. Final day would be $6.25-6.4mn.

First one had bumped 18% on Wed while this one dropped 1% on Wed. So compared to FB1 the Thu hold doesn't mean much really.

Edited November 23, 2018 by a2k

[goldenstate5]

1 hour ago, AlephNull said:

Can we officially cancel You and every garbage poster on this forum who parrots every opinion they have from the media? What do you know about the situation first hand? What kind of monster is he? How many of his previous spouses did he abuse? Where is your proof, monster? You are a shill for a no-talent like Amber Heard, pathetic.

 Lol

 

I'm astounded by Ralph's performance, for a Disney sequel to a B-property, it's performing like an absolute champ. I'm so happy because I love Wreck-It Ralph and I also loved the sequel. I'm glad it's able to stand against something as bland as Illumination's Grinch. The only worry is that its late legs will find some hard competition in Spider-Verse and Poppins, but that's far down the road from now and will have several weekends to itself.

[TomeRide]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Coco and Moana did 2.9 and 3x their 5-day respectively. Looking at some front-loading I think 2.6-2.7x for WIR2.

 

87.5-92.5 5-day gives 227.5-249.75 with that multiplier.

 

Beating Grinch is not set in stone yet and will be fun to track!

I don't think its looking at such a bad multiplier. Bigger numbers will help it stay in more theaters and for longer throughout the year-end holidays, especially compared to Coco (which thanks to a much lower opening and The Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji 2, Pitch Perfect 3, and The Greatest Showman only played in 2,100 theaters come Christmas. Btw, that's also why it had such a bad multiplier compared to Moana, at 2.88x vs 3.03x). 

 

I would be really surprised if it went any lower than 2.7x. My prediction would be around 2.8x. With a $90M opening it would end up with a little over $250M in total, and I don't see how The Grinch is matching that with all the theaters its going to lose by Christmas.

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

6.5M

12M

11.5M

6.5M

 

So 117-120M after Thanksgiving

 

Only 40M more after a a 30M second weekend? A family film? Without any competition for next two weekends? I know next weekend the drop will be huge, but not that huge. And it will stabilize. Add in Christmas last push and FB2 will cross 170M

 

Fantastic Beasts 1 had 1.73x legs off of its thanksgiving weekend. Assuming FB2 makes 30m this weekend as per you and giving it the same legs will take it to 170 million. 

 

However given the fact that its holds so far have been worse than FB1, it is possible it will have worse legs after Thanksgiving weekend too and fall short of that 1.73 multi. So it isnt impossible that 160 can happen. 

Edited November 23, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 1 had 1.73x legs off of its thanksgiving weekend. Assuming FB2 makes 30m this weekend as per you and giving it the same legs will take it to 170 million. 

 

However given the fact that its holds so far have been worse than FB1, it is possible it will have worse legs after Thanksgiving weekend too and fall short of that 1.73 multi. So it isnt impossible that 160 can happen. 

Agree, and JL added only 1.39x the 2nd weekend to it's cume. FB2 could do in between JL and FB1 and add 1.56 * 30 = 46.8 to it's cume.

 

6.5 Thu and 30 weekend takes it to 118,

118 +  47 = 165

[bladels]

@Charlie Jatinder you're this guy, right? https://twitter.com/itsjat32 

[MCKillswitch123]

Shame that Ralph might not hit its potential 5-day Thanksgiving OW record for animation given frontloadeness (I believe Frozen holds that record at 93M), but, for a sequel to the lowest grossing of all of Disney's films since the 3D Renaissance era started with Tangled - 2011's Winnie The Pooh notwithstanding, obviously - it's doing phenomenally well. Not too surprising, since the 1st teaser was hilarious and the movie's merchandising potential with the princesses and the Disney IP's, as obnoxiously self-jerking as it may have been, definitely screamed big opener/performer, assuming decent wom. But still, as someone who adored Wreck-It Ralph and was a bit bummed it didn't do higher numbers, I'm so glad this sequel is doing badass. (Even if the Frozen brand is somewhat overexposed, the sky is the limit for Frozen 2, now.)

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Shame that Ralph might not hit its potential 5-day Thanksgiving OW record for animation given frontloadeness (I believe Frozen holds that record at 93M), but, for a sequel to the lowest grossing of all of Disney's films since the 3D Renaissance era started with Tangled - 2011's Winnie The Pooh notwithstanding, obviously - it's doing phenomenally well. Not too surprising, since the 1st teaser was hilarious and the movie's merchandising potential with the princesses and the Disney IP's, as obnoxiously self-jerking as it may have been, definitely screamed big opener/performer, assuming decent wom. But still, as someone who adored Wreck-It Ralph and was a bit bummed it didn't do higher numbers, I'm so glad this sequel is doing badass. (Even if the Frozen brand is somewhat overexposed, the sky is the limit for Frozen 2, now.)

WIR1 is imo the best WDAS (but one the lowest grossing ones in the last few years) and deservingly the first to get a sequel...

 

Row	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	11	Ralph Breaks the Internet	BV	$18,500,000	4,017	n/a	4,017	11/21/18
2	3	Moana	BV	$248,757,044	3,875	$56,631,401	3,875	11/23/16
3	2	Zootopia	BV	$341,268,248	3,959	$75,063,401	3,827	3/4/16
4	4	Big Hero 6	BV	$222,527,828	3,773	$56,215,889	3,761	11/7/14
5	1	Frozen	BV	$400,738,009	3,742	$243,390	1	11/22/13
6	6	Wreck-It Ralph	BV	$189,422,889	3,752	$49,038,712	3,752	11/2/12
7	10	Winnie the Pooh	BV	$26,692,846	2,405	$7,857,076	2,405	7/15/11
8	5	Tangled	BV	$200,821,936	3,603	$48,767,052	3,603	11/24/10
9	8	The Princess and the Frog	BV	$104,400,899	3,475	$786,190	2	11/25/09
10	7	Bolt	BV	$114,053,579	3,654	$26,223,128	3,651	11/21/08
11	9	Meet the Robinsons	BV	$97,822,171	3,435	$25,123,781	3,413	3/30/07

[baumer]

Sorry guys I have not had time to go to the thread or check anywhere else but are there any Thursday numbers for creed?

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

Sorry guys I have not had time to go to the thread or check anywhere else but are there any Thursday numbers for creed?

 

9 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Creed 2⁠ ⁠ $5,624,340 from 2388 Locations, an improvement of 15% on Wednesday. The pure Wednesday was $7.9mn, if same pace continue it will have $8.75-9mn full day. Great hold.

 

If it follow Creed's projectile over the FSS, it will do $40.5mn FSS and $61mn 5 days.

 

[fmpro]

4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Sorry guys I have not had time to go to the thread or check anywhere else but are there any Thursday numbers for creed?

Its 8,75-9 according @Charlie Jatinder

 

Great number and with a 50 mill budget this will be a huge succes and a 3rd will happen. Could be the one where Rocky dies😭😭

[baumer]

It's also pretty impressive that the sequel to Creed only increase the budget by 15 million. I would assume there's some back-end deals for Sly and maybe even Michael b Jordan and Ryan coogler what's still to get the budget under control the way they did is really good for the film's success.