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Thanksgiving Weekend Thread: ESTIMATES (Page 40) | Ralph 55.7M (84.5M Total) | Creed II 35.3M (55.8M Total) | The Grinch 30.2M | Grindelwald 29.7M | Robin Hood 9.1M (14.2M Total) | AMAZING BLACK FRIDAY SALE

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I think Ralph lost all the hype it had ‘cause the Disney Princesses scene was released waaaay too early for promo. The pancake-milkshake thing was enough for early buzz, then they brought along the Princess for massive hype and went all downhill from there.

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1 hour ago, MattW said:

Being generous to Fantastic Beasts, with the same post thanksgiving drop that the first one had here's what I get:

 

  Weekly Cume
Opening 62.2 62.2
Nov 25 54.1 116.3
Dec 2 18 135
Dec 9 12 147
Dec 16 8 155
Dec 23 6 161
Dec 30 8 169
Jan 6 6 175
     
Rest 10 185

 

More likely it'll end in the low 170's

 

Grinch I think has a chance at holding well over christmas but I'll take a stab and say 220-230m total for it.

At this point 170's would be okay.  It would mean that Rowling/Yates/WB have to have some serious talk about making FB3 a universally liked film, while also being able to say 'hey, it was a drop but it still made 600+ WW'.  This series isn't off the rails yet but it needs to be course corrected.

 

I am in the minority and actually enjoyed the film.  There was CLEARLY some story that hit the cutting room floor that hurt the film, along with other arcs that SHOULD have been taken out instead.  Still, I find this story exciting and I think the third act truly saves the film.

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Green Book is pretty much hitting it's tracking numbers. I recall that they were around 8 million for the five day. If it has legs it could do okay depending on its budget but it is definitely not breaking out right now. If it does something crazy and goes up next weekend or barely drops I'll change my tune but right now it looks like another low grossing Oscar film. 

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11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald reported so far is $6,783,814. The full day would be $10.75-11mn Approx.

That should put it between 28-29 million for FFS, 117 domestic total.  I think, depending on holds, low end is 155, high end if it finds some legs, 175.

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One thing all these films have going for them is literally NO competition or screen loss over the next two weeks.  I know the first week of December is slow but still I think a lot of these films will benefit from it.  I also think the weekend of the 14th is light because Mortal Engines looks like a MASSIVE bomb.  

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5 hours ago, MattW said:

Being generous to Fantastic Beasts, with the same post thanksgiving drop that the first one had here's what I get:

 

  Weekly Cume
Opening 62.2 62.2
Nov 25 54.1 116.3
Dec 2 18 135
Dec 9 12 147
Dec 16 8 155
Dec 23 6 161
Dec 30 8 169
Jan 6 6 175
     
Rest 10 185

 

More likely it'll end in the low 170's

 

Grinch I think has a chance at holding well over christmas but I'll take a stab and say 220-230m total for it.

 

Fantastic Beasts 1 only made about $78M more domestically past that Thanksgiving Sunday. FB1's second FSS was about $45M. For argument's sake, let's say that FB2 does $30M this weekend during FSS. With the same legs as FB1 going forward, you get another $52M. Or $169.5M total.

 

$185M would be a lot more than just generous. FB1 has held better since the start. So to hit $185M, FB2 would have to have an amazing drop next weekend, and hold venues well through those december weeks where we are getting 4-5 openers. 

 

Low 170s is definitely possible without invoking crazy holds, but I am not seeing much evidence that things are heading that way yet. 

Edited by kswiston
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3 hours ago, RyneOh1040 said:

One thing all these films have going for them is literally NO competition or screen loss over the next two weeks.  I know the first week of December is slow but still I think a lot of these films will benefit from it.  I also think the weekend of the 14th is light because Mortal Engines looks like a MASSIVE bomb.  

Spidey-Verse says hi. :)

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3 hours ago, Rthanos said:

quick Saturday fly by

WIRBI  21.2, C2 13.7, FBCOG 11.6, G 11.9, BR 5.5, RH 3.6

2.5% drop for WIR2. Moana was a similar -2.1%.

 

2.8% drop for CR2. CR1 was -0.7%.

 

FB2 drops 2.9%. FB1 had dropped 6%, though comparison between them is moot atm.

 

Grinch increases 2.5% and goes over FB2's sat. Will beat FB2 over the weekend with a better Sunday too.

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8 hours ago, MattW said:

Being generous to Fantastic Beasts, with the same post thanksgiving drop that the first one had here's what I get:

 

  Weekly Cume
Opening 62.2 62.2
Nov 25 54.1 116.3
Dec 2 18 135
Dec 9 12 147
Dec 16 8 155
Dec 23 6 161
Dec 30 8 169
Jan 6 6 175
     
Rest 10 185

 

More likely it'll end in the low 170's

 

Grinch I think has a chance at holding well over christmas but I'll take a stab and say 220-230m total for it.

Won't crack 170 imo even on the bright side.

 

FB1 added 78 after a 45 2nd weekend, so 1.73 * 45

JL added 57 after a 41 2nd weekend, so 1.39 * 41

 

30 2nd weekend gives 117.5 cume to FB2.

Adding 1.73 * 30 = 52 gives 169.5 dom

Adding 1.39 * 30 = 42 gives 159.5 dom

 

No reason to see that even optimistically it will trend like FB1 from now on and reach 170. But if it does, that should be the ceiling.

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Great numbers for the Ralph and Creed Sequels. I must admit I didn't expect Ralph 2 to be this big, I thought six years between films is too Long, but seems that I was wrong.

 

Btw, I haven't been on here much recently, but it seems like @Charlie Jatinder is another industry insider with access to numbers. Is that true?

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