Weekend Estimates (page 9): Ralph 25.8M | The Grinch 17.7M | Creed 16.8M | Grindelwald 11.2M | Bohemian Rhapsody 8.1M | Instant Family 7.2M | Hannah Grace 6.5M

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

You're stretching yourself thin here just so your club succeeds. It's currently tracking for 70M+ over the first week, which will be about 35M for the 3 day. That puts it in the same range as Jumanji. It'll be close to 200M by the end of the year, and 250 will be a breeze.

I don’t think That One Guy realized that a good & family-appealing blockbuster can be very leggy if it the kind of film that families like & have a very good time with.

 

See Sing, Jumanji 2 & Night at the Museum for example.

[MrGlass2]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

what a beautiful $ 400M grosser 😋

Box Office: 'Aquaman,' 'Mary Poppins' And 'Bumblebee' May Gross Less Than Just 'The Last Jedi'

 

Quote

For what it’s worth, a run like Night at the Museum ($250 million after a $79m seven-day run) would give Mary Poppins Returns, presuming a $70m seven-day opening, a $222m domestic cume.  Fellowship of the Ring (which also opened on a Wednesday in a year when Christmas fell on a Tuesday) earned 3.3x its seven-day gross ($313m / $94m), which would give the Emily Blunt flick a $233m domestic finish. It could open bigger and fly even higher in terms of legs, but a leggier run than the first “Holy cow, it’s surprisingly great!” Lord of the Rings movie would be quite impressive even for Christmas.

 

[John Marston]

Christopher Robin finishes with 99m. Second 99m grosser this year after Rampage 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=disneyfairytale2017.htm

 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Box Office: 'Aquaman,' 'Mary Poppins' And 'Bumblebee' May Gross Less Than Just 'The Last Jedi'

 

 

this doesn't prove anything

 

3 weeks before the release it's tracking at $ 70 - 80M

the tracking could easily be $ 80 - 90M on the opening week, and let's not forget family movies usually open higher than tracking suggests because they're more difficult to track

 

and also it's not a fanbase movie like LOTR... Jumanji is probably a better comparison [$ 87.1M 7-day / $ 404M total]

 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Christopher Robin finishes with 99m. Second 99m grosser this year after Rampage 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=disneyfairytale2017.htm

 

I thought Disney was supposed to push it too over 100m?

[MrGlass2]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

and also it's not a fanbase movie like LOTR... Jumanji is probably a better comparison [$ 87.1M 7-day / $ 404M total]

But the fanbase/nostalgia factor is the only reason it can make $400M or even $500M, like some people think. Because in all metrics MPR is far behind a BATB.

Edited December 1, 2018 by MrGlass2

[That One Girl]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

You're stretching yourself thin here just so your club succeeds. It's currently tracking for 70M+ over the first week, which will be about 35M for the 3 day. That puts it in the same range as Jumanji. It'll be close to 200M by the end of the year, and 250 will be a breeze.

 

Even if it does open with 70M over the first week, it's still very much possible that it falls short.  Night at the Museum made 90M in its first week, and just barely topped 250M.  Looking at other 100M+ family films released before Christmas:

 

-Alvin and the Chipmunks made 64M in its first week and made 217M.  Similar legs for Mary Poppins brings it to 237M.

-National Treasure 2 made 100M in its first week and topped at 219M.

-Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 made 111M in its first week and finished with 219M.

-Tron Legacy made 72M in its first week and finished with 172M.

-Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 made 42M in its first week and finished with 133M.  A similar multi for Mary Poppins gives it 221M.

-Night at the Museum 3 made 41M in its first week and finished with 113M.  A similar multi gives it 192M.

-Sing made 108M in its first week and finished with 270M.  Similar multi gives it 175M.

-With Jumanji, it made 104M in its first week and finished with 404M.  Similar multi gives it 271M.  If it falls short of these legs, which is likely because I imagine Poppins would be more frontloaded, then sub-250M is still a very real possibility.

-The Greatest Showman made 28M in its first week and finished with 174M.  Similar multi gives it 435M (literally the only comp that gets it significantly above 250M.  It also won't happen)

 

In fact, historical evidence shows that a 70M opening week would make achieving 250M less likely.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Even if it does open with 70M over the first week, it's still very much possible that it falls short.  Night at the Museum made 90M in its first week, and just barely topped 250M.  Looking at other 100M+ family films released before Christmas:

 

-Alvin and the Chipmunks made 64M in its first week and made 217M.  Similar legs for Mary Poppins brings it to 237M.

-National Treasure 2 made 100M in its first week and topped at 219M.

-Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 made 111M in its first week and finished with 219M.

-Tron Legacy made 72M in its first week and finished with 172M.

-Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 made 42M in its first week and finished with 133M.  A similar multi for Mary Poppins gives it 221M.

-Night at the Museum 3 made 41M in its first week and finished with 113M.  A similar multi gives it 192M.

-Sing made 108M in its first week and finished with 270M.  Similar multi gives it 175M.

-With Jumanji, it made 104M in its first week and finished with 404M.  Similar multi gives it 271M.  If it falls short of these legs, which is likely because I imagine Poppins would be more frontloaded, then sub-250M is still a very real possibility.

-The Greatest Showman made 28M in its first week and finished with 174M.  Similar multi gives it 435M (literally the only comp that gets it significantly above 250M.  It also won't happen)

 

In fact, historical evidence shows that a 70M opening week would make achieving 250M less likely.

Alvin made $ 55M in first week... similar legs for MPR bring $ 276M

national treasure 2 made $ 88M in first week...

tron legacy made $ 68M in first week... 

 

you are counting 8 days for the movies, not 7

 

and MPR will probably get a much better reception than all those movies [except maybe TGS which people really loved]

 

6 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

But fanbase/nostalgia is the only reason some people think it can make $400M or even $500M. Because in all metrics MPR is far behind a BATB.

it's not... for example i think it will make $ 400M because it's getting acclaim, it's the perfect christmas / holidays movie, it's the most family movie this december, it's a musical [the genre is on fire] and also have magic

 

and of course is far behind BATB... BATB is actually highly anticipated, MPR will have a solid debut but nothing spectacular, it will be much more about legs because of the reasons i've said 

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Alvin made $ 55M in first week... similar legs for MPR bring $ 276M

national treasure 2 made $ 88M in first week...

tron legacy made $ 68M in first week... 

 

you are counting 8 days for the movies, not 7

 

and MPR will probably get a much better reception than all those movies [except maybe TGS which people really loved]

 

You're right, my bad.  Then again, Dec. 18 might act as an opening day for it, given that previews are more prominent now than they were when some of these comps were released, the film probably going to have some rush factor for it, and it having a fan event that falls on that day.

 

Updating the comps, though, the only additional films that get ahead with a similar multi are Alvin (as you mentioned) and Alvin 3, which both target little children and are the opposite of films that people rush out for.  It's still 6 films vs. 4 exceptions (closer to 3 because The Greatest Showman was a Titanic-esque beast that won't be replicated for a long time).  Sing and NATM were similarly very well liked, and similar performances to both those films makes the film fall short.  And again, I think it's ridiculous to deny that Mary Poppins won't have a rush factor from Disney/Poppins fans.

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

You're right, my bad.  Then again, Dec. 18 might act as an opening day for it, given that previews are more prominent now than they were when some of these comps were released, the film probably going to have some rush factor for it, and it having a fan event that falls on that day.

 

Updating the comps, though, the only additional films that get ahead with a similar multi are Alvin (as you mentioned) and Alvin 3, which both target little children and are the opposite of films that people rush out for.  It's still 6 films vs. 4 exceptions (closer to 3 because The Greatest Showman was a Titanic-esque beast that won't be replicated for a long time).  Sing and NATM were similarly very well liked, and similar performances to both those films makes the film fall short.  And again, I think it's ridiculous to deny that Mary Poppins won't have a rush factor from Disney/Poppins fans.

There aren't any previews for Poppins. Outside of a fan event, which are only in a few theaters, it's not getting any previews on Tuesday.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

You're right, my bad.  Then again, Dec. 18 might act as an opening day for it, given that previews are more prominent now than they were when some of these comps were released, the film probably going to have some rush factor for it, and it having a fan event that falls on that day.

 

Updating the comps, though, the only additional films that get ahead with a similar multi are Alvin (as you mentioned) and Alvin 3, which both target little children and are the opposite of films that people rush out for.  It's still 6 films vs. 4 exceptions (closer to 3 because The Greatest Showman was a Titanic-esque beast that won't be replicated for a long time).  Sing and NATM were similarly very well liked, and similar performances to both those films makes the film fall short.  And again, I think it's ridiculous to deny that Mary Poppins won't have a rush factor from Disney/Poppins fans.

 

I have a casino bet for you if you want it - over/under $250M DOM for Mary Poppins:)...

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

There aren't any previews for Poppins. Outside of a fan event, which are only in a few theaters, it's not getting any previews on Tuesday.

 

Looking around, most theaters don't have their full showtimes up for it.  I'd be very surprised if it doesn't have previews on that day.

[filmlover]

Mary Poppins isn’t having previews at my theater either. Jumanji and The Greatest Showman didn’t have previews when they opened the Wednesday before Christmas last year either (though the former did have those early showings almost two weeks before it opened).

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Looking around, most theaters don't have their full showtimes up for it.  I'd be very surprised if it doesn't have previews on that day.

Jumanji and Greatest Showman didn't have previews either. And considering this is a high-profile release, I would expect they would have up at least some Tuesday shows by now if Disney was going to do them.

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

You're right, my bad.  Then again, Dec. 18 might act as an opening day for it, given that previews are more prominent now than they were when some of these comps were released, the film probably going to have some rush factor for it, and it having a fan event that falls on that day.

 

Updating the comps, though, the only additional films that get ahead with a similar multi are Alvin (as you mentioned) and Alvin 3, which both target little children and are the opposite of films that people rush out for.  It's still 6 films vs. 4 exceptions (closer to 3 because The Greatest Showman was a Titanic-esque beast that won't be replicated for a long time).  Sing and NATM were similarly very well liked, and similar performances to both those films makes the film fall short.  And again, I think it's ridiculous to deny that Mary Poppins won't have a rush factor from Disney/Poppins fans.

MPR will not have previews on tuesday... just the fan event on selected theaters

i'm not denying the movie will have a certain rush factor from Poppins fans, of course it will, i just think it will not be enough to make the movie frontloaded

 

i also think MPR have one thing the others movies doesn't have, it's a really christmas movie with the family theme on base, so it will have better legs than all those examples, except TGS [and similar to Jumanji]

 

finally, like i said i think Jumanji is the best comparison here, good debut because of people who seem the original but impressive legs

MPR is tracking at $ 70 - 80M now, so for me it will debut with $ 85 - 95M 7-day and then have Jumanji legs for a $ 400 - 420M total

 

Edited December 1, 2018 by ThomasNicole

[John Marston]

Wonder why Disney did everything they could to get Wrinkle in Time past 100m but didn’t care about CR?

[Alli]

32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Wonder why Disney did everything they could to get Wrinkle in Time past 100m but didn’t care about CR?

Ava Duvarney has a reputation to protect. the 100M milestone is important to her

[WrathOfHan]

The only previews Poppins is doing on Tuesday is for dolby. A List is excluded 

[Zakiyyah6]

So Disney aren't going to pretend that CR got to 100mil like they did with A Wrinkle in Time. Interesting. No way they can pretend that Nutcracker is getting to that number either. That movie is going to have a horrible domestic gross. 

Edited December 1, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[VENOM]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

Whenever I see Fantastic Beasts 2 drops/numbers 

It has been a truly fantastic bomb