Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

Looks about right for the 3 day.

 

I'm still sticking with my rough guess from the weekend thread of 80m for the 3 day and on top of that I'll say 105m for the 4 day. 

4day/3day really shouldn’t crack 1.26    
 

I was just going to look up whether the tradition was to do the final flop bar Mon or tues (answer — Tues for BW, Sun for TSS, think Tues default). I will probably jack it up some, as it’s for the 4day, but keep in mind that it’s intended to be a figure that going below would be actually really bad/sad to me and justify people melting down in the thread in my eyes, which is a generally unpleasant experience. I went with a mere 21M for TSS, which was really lenient, and 86 for BW, which, umm… I thought was really lenient. Generally aiming for like a -1.5 to -2 z sort of thing.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Jamiem]

19 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I was just going to look up whether the tradition was to do the final flop bar Mon or tues (answer — Tues for BW, Sun for TSS, think Tues default). I will probably jack it up some, as it’s for the 4day, but keep in mind that it’s intended to be a figure that going below would be actually really bad/sad to me and justify people melting down in the thread in my eyes, which is a generally unpleasant experience. I went with a mere 21M for TSS, which was really lenient, and 86 for BW, which, umm… I thought was really lenient. Generally aiming for like a -1.5 to -2 z sort of thing.

I was mainly just joking around, I do think knowing the history around Labor Day weekend people will be more lenient if say it only does $60-70m over the 4 day considering that would be an opening weekend record for the period by a fairly large margin. 

[Jamiem]

 

 

Not a fan of Reddit, but for those that are and want to ask Simu a question he's doing this. 

[Gavin Feng]

when will Kevin Feige come to BOT and talk about how shitty situations he’s been through under the control of little Bob.

[fabiopazzo2]

So what is The real expectation here? 50/60M in 3 days or 70M?

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So what is The real expectation here? 50/60M in 3 days or 70M?

50M seems the absolute floor and severe underestimated at this point.

 

Around 60M seems the more reasonable number, i'm expecting this and i will be happy with this.

 

70M could happen but it will depend of previews, it seems possible so far but let's see how it goes the final days of presales.

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So what is The real expectation here? 50/60M in 3 days or 70M?

65-80ish for the 3day.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Saul Goodman]

$60M would be good for a completely new character.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

when will Kevin Feige come to BOT and talk about how shitty situations he’s been through under the control of little Bob.

@Shawn add this "to do list"

[Chicago]

11 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

I think if your POV is so contrarian, you shouldn't be a film critic.

 

People need a reliable litmus test to figure out if they'll like a film. If your opinion is unrelatable then you're useless as a food taster. You're basically going to highly recommend "poisonous food".

So all critics should like the same things? Critics can't always be trusted, eapecially with comedies. So many hilarious movies are panned by critics, always makes me laugh because I've met critics and they're not funny so having their opinion on humour is something none of us want

[SpiderByte]

11 hours ago, dudalb said:

Projections are for for a 4o to 50 million opening.

Idk if you're looking at older numbers or just the 3 day but it's much higher than that now.

Edited August 31, 2021 by SpiderByte

[Saul Goodman]

Back to 92% RT with 130 reviews.

[fabiopazzo2]

@charlie Jatinder

[john2000]

 

 

 

[grey ghost]

10 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

$60M would be good for a completely new character.

 

Wouldn't that be the 3rd biggest OW this year?

[grey ghost]

If this can beat F9's OW that would be fairly impressive.

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, grey ghost said:

If this can beat F9's OW that would be fairly impressive.

It would be incredibly inpressive...particualry since the Covid situation in the US is worse now then it was when f9 Opened.

 

One thing for sure: it will do zero business in New Orleans.....

[Barnack]

15 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

$60M would be good for a completely new character.

 

Over Ant-Man unadjusted in Delta time, do sound quite good (to me at least)

 

May 2, 2008	Iron Man	$186,000,000	$102,118,668	$318,604,126	$585,171,547
Aug 1, 2014	Guardians of the Galaxy	$170,000,000	$94,320,883	$333,714,112	$770,882,395
Nov 4, 2016	Doctor Strange	$165,000,000	$85,058,311	$232,641,920	$676,354,481
Jul 9, 2021	Black Widow	$200,000,000	$80,366,312	$181,462,957	$369,868,792
May 6, 2011	Thor	$150,000,000	$65,723,338	$181,030,624	$449,326,618
Jul 22, 2011	Captain America: The First …	$140,000,000	$65,058,524	$176,654,505	$370,569,776
Jul 17, 2015	Ant-Man	$130,000,000	$57,225,526	$180,202,163	$518,858,449
Jun 13, 2008	The Incredible Hulk	$137,500,000	$55,414,050	$134,806,913	$265,573,859

 

 

Maybe the equivalent to in between Strange and Guardians in regular time business (i.e upper tier of new entry).

[Legion Again]

Unadjusted is rough when the time period spans 13 years though. OW ranks for solo subfranchise first entries:  

BP 5th (current 209M)

IM1 10th (183M)

CM 18th (158M)

SMH 29th (138M)  

gotg 32nd (134M) 

Hulk 55th (103M) 

Thor 55th (103M) 

Cap:TFA 63rd (98M)

DS1 64th (97M) 

BW 96th (80.366M 😛 )

AM1 128th (70M)
 

Now some of these aren’t really “new character introduction.” BP was in CW, BW was in lots of stuff before, SMH was in 5 solo movies outside the mcu, CM was teased in IW. And BW would have been more like 50th without PA even with the pandemic (using 110M est).   
 

Shang Chi seems to me to be headed for an OW right around 128th, so O/U the worst in the franchise. But not so bad under the circumstances — that would suggest (to me, just from gut) a non pandemic OW that ranked around hulk/Thor. So indeed, mid-upper tier for new character movie.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Jamiem]

A little off topic but @Lokis Legion if you decide to change your name for the release of Shang-Chi may I suggest Legion of the Ten Rings.