Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[Valonqar]

SC boxoffice doesn't matter. They wouldn't discard the character if the movie made X instead of Y. Marvel is playing the long game and they have ways to improve any character's visibility/popularity though crossovers. They didn't discard Hulk, but just repurposed him as a supporting character where he became a show-stealer and fan favorite. Ant Man/Wasp franchise is their smallest but they keep making those movies and the third is very likely going to launch the Young Avengers. 

 

Point being, not all franchise starters max out with the first movie but could start slower and then grow fandom and boxoffice. But I think that GOTG opening + legs = very doable. Pre-pandemic at least, it's tough to predict otherwise.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Valonqar

[john2000]

theatrical only 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For lower trailer views y'all are like its new character and FFH and all were sequels and stuff.

 

But for box office y'all ignoring all that and expecting 100-125M like every other MCU film 

 

Pick a lane.

It’s simple. 100ish is the figure for a lower interest new character. For a non-AM sequel 150+ is more what to aim for.

 

... pre-pandemic, that is. Degree on pandemic impact on Sep 3 quite hazy atm, but I expect low.

Edited April 20, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Legion Again]

Not sure if people realize but Incredible Hulk, Thor 1, C:TFA, and DS1 all had OWs ranked 55-65. That range is 95M-105M nowadays. It doesn’t take being an especially strong first entry to hit that kind of range.p for MCU OWs.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Not sure if people realize but Incredible Hulk, Thor 1, 😄TFA, and DS1 all had OWs ranked 55-65. That range is 95M-105M nowadays. It doesn’t take being an especially strong first entry to hit that kind of range.p for MCU OWs.

Yes this. None of non-IM movies repeated IM success. But they knew increase was coming after TA for all solo entries and they were right. Long game. 

[Legion Again]

I think the only 125 in this thread has been when I said 125 4-day (including Labor Day Mon) — which would be maybe 95 TFSS. DS1 level.

[fabiopazzo2]

Trailer views after 24h

 

YT= 9.5M (586K likes)

TW: 12.5M

instagram: 3.1M 

[Menor the Destroyer]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah I saw some comments on 100-125, which is like 70-80% of FFH, when I think it will be around half just like trailer views.

CM was 80% of FFH in trailer views, but ended up being ahead of it in domestic OW and gross. You can't make such a precise prediction based on trailer views. 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Menor

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'll bet - if the movie is more like the last 20 seconds of the trailer, it will totally be on premiere access.

If the movie is like the 1st 20 seconds of the trailer, it will be theatrical only.

 

Since Awkwafina is a big get, I'm thinking it will be the former, so this will be a dual release...

 

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ofc. Probably after Widow release will announce D+ release.

Same thinking here.

 

i am guessing simultaneous release in theaters and D+.

[SpiderByte]

So how long till Disney inevitably does the "X views in 24 hours" type stuff they do for basically every Marvel trailer.

 

But aside from that did nobody learn from Detective Pikachu that trailer views do not actually correlate to box office

Edited April 20, 2021 by SpiderByte

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

But aside from that did nobody learn from Detective Pikachu that trailer views do not actually correlate to box office

I mean it's pretty easy to see at this point that Detective Pikachu was an exception. 

[Valonqar]

34 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

 

But aside from that did nobody learn from Detective Pikachu that trailer views do not actually correlate to box office

don't remind me. I made DP over 1B club. I think it was for over 1B dom  cause I really wanted something to dethrone TFA. But maybe I remember it incorrectly and was tad smarter to peg it for "only" 1B WW. 

[SpiderByte]

43 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean it's pretty easy to see at this point that Detective Pikachu was an exception. 

Is it? Mulan (yes, even considering covid) and Fifty Shades 2 had big views and didn't have as comparable box office. It Chapter 2 had trailer views on par with Chapter 1 but made just over half as much.

Edited April 20, 2021 by SpiderByte

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Is it? Mulan (yes, even considering covid) and Fifty Shades 2 had big views and didn't have as comparable box office. It Chapter 2 had trailer views on par with Chapter 1 but made just over half as much.

Well when you don't take these things in context, you are bound to get some odd results.

 

But generally you can gauge interest from these things, if you know the contexts.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i am not asian, but simu seems very good to me, i dont get the problem with how an actor looks anyway

Gonna take the discussion here.

 

@TigerPaw @titanic2187

 

for one, China isn't Asia. Chinese are just one part of a giant land mass of people. People, mostly Americans often use Asian as a very broad term to define just one ethnicity i.e. Chinese. FWIW, Chinese aren't the only ones in East Asia itself.

 

two, yeah having a Chinese American lead is gonna be tough sell like BP. BP was hugely boosted by Infinity War internationally and then legs were pretty good as it turned out great.

Edited April 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Is it? Mulan (yes, even considering covid) and Fifty Shades 2 had big views and didn't have as comparable box office. It Chapter 2 had trailer views on par with Chapter 1 but made just over half as much.

I have no doubt Mulan would have done USD500m worldwide easily even with the mixed review if it wasn't for COVID and the Disney+ release.

The interest was huge; i mean it is the most pirated movie in the world last year from an article I read. 

[Legion Again]

Simu casting, like some other elements of the trailer, seems more focused on American appeal based on personality/comedic chops. And acting ability/fit with the character is much more important than looks, so I’ll wait til seeing the movie to judge. But Sarah Halley Finn verrrrrrrrry rarely misses.

[titanic2187]

15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Simu casting, like some other elements of the trailer, seems more focused on American appeal based on personality/comedic chops. And acting ability/fit with the character is much more important than looks, so I’ll wait til seeing the movie to judge. But Sarah Halley Finn verrrrrrrrry rarely misses.

Well, given that this appearance talk does refer a real person in real world, I don't want to go too far.

 

But if you put Simu next to Tom holland, Evans, Hemsworth, robert downey jr, cumberbatch.....never mind~

 

[marveldcfox]

3 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Not sure if people realize but Incredible Hulk, Thor 1, 😄TFA, and DS1 all had OWs ranked 55-65. That range is 95M-105M nowadays. It doesn’t take being an especially strong first entry to hit that kind of range.p for MCU OWs.

Ant-Man and Ant-Man 2 say Hi

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Ant-Man and Ant-Man 2 say Hi

Are you somehow under the impression that I don’t know about these movies? What is your point, precisely, because it sure as shit isn’t going to disprove mine.