Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Google Trends are awful. Not even close to BW at the same point. This may be Marvel's first flop in a while but I will wait to see how presales are. 

doubt it will be a flop, idk how reliable are google trends but the new tv spot that marvel released seem to be getting very decent views , also  idk exactly what you mean by flop i mean i can see it have a 50-60 mill ow , the buzz seem to be on antman level so........but yeah we will know for sure when the presales start

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Google Trends are awful. Not even close to BW at the same point. This may be Marvel's first flop in a while but I will wait to see how presales are. 

but it counts all time? because BW is being promoted since 2019 so it makes sense if that´s the case

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, john2000 said:

doubt it will be a flop, idk how reliable are google trends but the new tv spot that marvel released seem to be getting very decent views , also  idk exactly what you mean by flop i mean i can see it have a 50-60 mill ow , the buzz seem to be on antman level so........but yeah we will know for sure when the presales start

Usually Google Trends is a better indicator than trailer although its still very rough.

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

but it counts all time? because BW is being promoted since 2019 so it makes sense if that is the case

No, week to week, but most likely the gap is because "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" has such a long official title that many searches wouldn't get counted. FFH had the same issue iirc, where searches showed it far below CM but they were relatively close in actual BO. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

If the budget is roughly 150m, it’s going to flop. People keep oddly comparing this to Ant-Man but that made 105m in China. 400m WW at best in this case but that seems unlikely all things currently considering.

[Legion Again]

This is the first movie since DS1 which is about a title character that hadn’t appeared or been strongly teased in a prior movie. I have some delta concerns but I think it makes sense that trends and stuff would be low for it a month out because there isn’t pre-existing hype/interest the way that the last… 10? Movies have had.   
 

Despite that DS1 opened to rank 64 (modern equivalent 97M). I’m not expecting 97M here by any means, but just to say that it’s a bit of a different situation than we’ve had for the MCU in a long time.

[ThomasNicole]

31 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

If the budget is roughly 150m, it’s going to flop. People keep oddly comparing this to Ant-Man but that made 105m in China. 400m WW at best in this case but that seems unlikely all things currently considering.

i don´t think anyone would see 400M as a flop in this environment

[john2000]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

i don´t think anyone would see 400M as a flop in this environment

imo is more likely that this hits 400 mill without china rather than with china , still sticking with my 500-600 mill 

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

imo is more likely that this hits 400 mill without china rather than with china , still sticking with my 500-600 mill 

i would agreed with 500M  if there wasn´t Delta, i think things are reeeeally bad foreign right now, and i´m not sure it will be much better on early september.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

imo is more likely that this hits 400 mill without china rather than with china , still sticking with my 500-600 mill 

F9 would be at 440m without 200m from China. You really think Shang-Chi will perform like this? Black Widow is at 345m. Godzilla vs Kong is currently at 467m including 188m from China.

 

Ant-Man and The Wasp did 622m with 121m from China. You genuinely expect an origin story opening on Labor Day during a pandemic with restricted audiences is going to do as much? 
 

Ragnarok did 853m with 112m from China. Guardians 1 did 773m with 86m. Guardians 2 did 863m 100m from China. China’s 116m brought Homecoming to 880. Doctor Strange made 677 and 109m from China

 

Sticking with 500-600 doesn’t mathematically hold up

 

 

 

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

i don´t think anyone would see 400M as a flop in this environment

They probably wouldn’t being in profit with 400m and I’m expecting closer to 375m

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

F9 would be at 440m without 200m from China. You really think Shang-Chi will perform like this? Black Widow is at 345m. Godzilla vs Kong is currently at 467m including 188m from China.

 

Ant-Man and The Wasp did 622m with 121m from China. You genuinely expect an origin story opening on Labor Day during a pandemic with restricted audiences is going to do as much? 
 

Ragnarok did 853m with 112m from China. Guardians 1 did 773m with 86m. Guardians 2 did 863m 100m from China. China’s 116m brought Homecoming to 880. Doctor Strange made 677 and 109m from China

 

Sticking with 500-600 doesn’t mathematically hold up

 

 

 

 

 

dude your guess is as good as mine , as for your previous examples i dont get why you are using them , the truth is that noone really knows for sure if shang chi will play more like antman  or more like guardians we have no idea what so ever, as for your previous example gvk is an unfair comparison as that movie hadnt released in a lot of market back in march and also piracy hurt it, fast 9 is looking at around 500 mill sans china and sout east asia i think.As for black widow its ow os and dom while great was nothing expectional and its legs are also mediocre too , personally i can see shang chi coming close to bw os opening weekend and have better legs for maybe a 220 or so total os -china as for dom well for now i am sticking with an ow of around 60 mill which seems a very decent guess and with that ow we could see around 160 dom total or so ,  all in all around 400 mill sans china of course i could very well be wrong but i just dont see why thats unrealistic

[ThomasNicole]

50 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

They probably wouldn’t being in profit with 400m and I’m expecting closer to 375m

well, any big movie this year is profitable tho?

 

China help some movies but studios only get 25% back, which didn´t help that much on profit.

 

GxK did 279M without China and it costs 165M

F9 will finish around 450M without China and it costs 225-250M

BW probably won´t be released on China and will finish with around 370M costing 200M (this one have good PA money but still not enough)

 

Shang Chi costing 150M and doing around 300M without China will be considered a good result like the other big movies this year.

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

58 minutes ago, john2000 said:

dude your guess is as good as mine , as for your previous examples i dont get why you are using them , the truth is that noone really knows for sure if shang chi will play more like antman  or more like guardians we have no idea what so ever, as for your previous example gvk is an unfair comparison as that movie hadnt released in a lot of market back in march and also piracy hurt it, fast 9 is looking at around 500 mill sans china and sout east asia i think.As for black widow its ow os and dom while great was nothing expectional and its legs are also mediocre too , personally i can see shang chi coming close to bw os opening weekend and have better legs for maybe a 220 or so total os -china as for dom well for now i am sticking with an ow of around 60 mill which seems a very decent guess and with that ow we could see around 160 dom total or so ,  all in all around 400 mill sans china of course i could very well be wrong but i just dont see why thats unrealistic

My guesses are based on actual stats and history. 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

My guesses are based on actual stats and history. 

what stats bro ? you gave some examples that were in totaly different situations like i said shang chi could very well play closer to antman than doc strange or guardians , the truth is that we dont know for sure and also i may add again antman 1 withouth china made around 400 mill, i dont see why shang chi couldnt challenge that ... this doesnt mean that it will of course ,shang chi is a totaly unkown character but that doesnt say much about its performance really other than the fact that we shouldnt expect a 800 mill movie more so in these time for a character like that

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by john2000

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

what stats bro ? you gave some examples that were in totaly difference situations like i said shang chi could very well play closer to antman than doc strange or guardians , the truth is that we dont know for sure and also i may add again antman 1 withouth china made around 400 mill, i dont see why shang chi couldnt challenge that ... this doesnt mean that it will of course

 

 

 

Pandemic + lack of buzz + Labor Day release + staggered international rollout. I’ve already said 400m feels like the best possible outcome for this

[john2000]

Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Pandemic + lack of buzz + Labor Day release + staggered international rollout. I’ve already said 400m feels like the best possible outcome for this

1)fast 9 also had staggered rollout as long as its theatrical exlusive that wont hurt it,2) labor day release i still dont get why thats a problem if  people want to see the movie they will go and check it nevermind the release date,3)as for buzz, the buzz seems very fine to me for an unknow character with an origin story , 4) of course pandemic will be a factor how much of a factor remains to be seen though as vaccinations keep increasing especially in major markets...

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[SnokesLegs]

27 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

I like the actors but those aren’t good posters. The “fight poses” just make it look like a Mortal Kombat knockoff.

[DAJK]

Why is this assumed to not be getting a release in China?

[john2000]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Why is this assumed to not be getting a release in China?

people said that bc the reactions to shang chi trailer are not great, in china but  its just another guess classic forum.......with no info whatsover.....also  if i remember correctly  gavin , said in his tweeter feed that shang is going to get a release plan......

Edited August 5, 2021 by john2000