Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[charlie Jatinder]

Chinese are only 1.5% of USA population, so its not like BP where demo is big enough to impact the overall gross by a lot.

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Chinese are only 1.5% of USA population, so its not like BP where demo is big enough to impact the overall gross by a lot.

 

That too but even BP demo didn't show up in full force for just about anything. I saw some stats on reddit that were very interesting. African American audience share for BP was 35% for the first week/OW which is way bigger than their average for Marvel (around 16%). Even Infinity War that heavily marketed BP and Wakanda in trailers had only 18% AA audience share, which is slightly above Marvel average for this demo but way below BP turnout. TFA that heavily featured Finn in marketing attacted only 12% of AA while Jurassic World with no black representation in main roles and marketing attracted 16%. Spiderman: Into the Spiderworld also attacted 16% despite representation in the main role. 

 

Point being, representation alone =/= mandatory huge turnout.  Context and concept (appealing or not) plays the biggest role. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Valonqar

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

That too but even BP demo didn't show up in full force for just about anything. I saw some stats on reddit that were very interesting. African American audience share for BP was 35% for the first week/OW which is way bigger than their average for Marvel (around 16%). Even Infinity War that heavily marketed BP and Wakanda in trailers had only 18% AA audience share, which is slightly above Marvel average for this demo but way below BP turnout. TFA that heavily featured Finn in marketing attacted only 12% of AA while Jurassic World with no black representation in main roles and marketing attracted 16%. Spiderman: Into the Spiderworld also attacted 16% despite representation in the main role. 

 

Point being, representation alone =/= mandatory huge turnout.  Context and concept (appealing or not) plays the biggest role. 

 

But, in 2019, when everyone started talking for this movie (or maybe even before - Covid delays have messed with my sense of when these movies actually got greenlit), they thought this could be for the Asian American audience like Black Panther was for the AA audience...maybe not AS drastic, since AA delivered $70M in tickets to the Black Panther OW, a ridiculous overindexing number for that demo (not just in percent, but in pure enormous revenue figures).    

 

You thought - yeah, this might appeal to the non-invested Asian Americans who don't follow the MCU, but might want to see a cool superhero on screen in an appealing movie plot concept that doesn't need any background coming in - now, I don't see that audience showing up.  I see the invested coming, and not a whole lot more.  

 

That said, damn, there are a lot of MCU invested...so now it's a question of how many see this as "urgent" vs "D+ in 4-6 months since no new Avengers is on the horizon"...

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, in 2019, when everyone started talking for this movie (or maybe even before - Covid delays have messed with my sense of when these movies actually got greenlit), they thought this could be for the Asian American audience like Black Panther was for the AA audience...maybe not AS drastic, since AA delivered $70M in tickets to the Black Panther OW, a ridiculous overindexing number for that demo (not just in percent, but in pure enormous revenue figures).   [/quote]

 

AA delivering 70M or 35% of 202M OW was possible because of the size of that demo in America which we agree about. When Asian Americans overindex, you get CRA. A demo cannot deliver above the limits of its size. And Asians or no Asians, SC was never going to open with 202M so 70M from Asian audience alone was never in the cards.  

 

There's also another thing to consider. Asian American audience may not be that thirsty for an Asian SH because Asian cinema is full of wuxia heroes who put American superheroes to shame. And previews depict SC as a very average fighter with a boring choreography even by American standard (remember, China said that TFA swordfight looked like a lowbudget TV show and many fell asleep). So while the idea to have such a hero in MCU may be exciting on paper, but, unless they are underselling action, there isn't much to be hyped about if you grew up on masterclass kung fu and wuxia. 

 

But anyway, if SC was meant to be BP for Asians we won't know thanks to corona chan but sequels could make up for what's lost. 

 

 

[Lion Roar]

41 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, in 2019, when everyone started talking for this movie (or maybe even before - Covid delays have messed with my sense of when these movies actually got greenlit), they thought this could be for the Asian American audience like Black Panther was for the AA audience

This was never going to happen. Even this movie is better than BP it would never bring out Asian Americans like BP did, simply because Asians have plenty of all Asian media to choose from constantly coming out of Asia. BP was something unprecedented, whereas there has been plenty of much bigger scale productions from Asia starring huge local stars. Shang-Chi is doing the all too familiar wuxia genre, which China churns out multiple entries a year in movies and TV shows, so really the MCU itself is the main draw for Asian Americans, not the representation, genre or storyline. Now, there is a sense of we need to support this 'for the culture', but not in the 'omg we've never seen this before' kind of way, but in a 'we need to support this so they make more like this' way. But at the end of the day there aren't enough Chinese Americans to make a difference. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Lion Roar

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

This was never going to happen. Even this movie is better than BP it would never bring out Asian Americans like BP did, simply because Asians have plenty of all Asian media to choose from constantly coming out of Asia. BP was something unprecedented, whereas there has been plenty of much bigger scale productions from Asia starring huge local stars. Shang-Chi is doing the all too familiar wuxia genre, which China churns out multiple entries a year in movies and TV shows, so really the MCU itself is the main draw for Asian Americans, not the representation, genre or storyline. Now, there is a sense of we need to support this 'for the culture', but not in the 'omg we've never seen this before' kind of way, but in a 'we need to support this so they make more like this' way. But at the end of the day there aren't enough Chinese Americans to make a difference. 

 

Great post, summed up what I was trying to say. re: bolded. Real enthusiasm vs an obligation. And obligation is never going to create repeat business unless the movie ignites the "OMG never seen this before" (which is how Avatar became an unstoppable hit off just 70M OW or Titanic off just 25M OW or so). BP's 35% exceeded "for the cutlure...so that they make more like this" support. There was genuine WOW factor which SC doens't have for reasons we both explained - Asian cinema have plenty of superior product readily avaialiable and they are churning out this type of content 24-7. In short, while BP felt fresh and never seen before to everyone not just AA, SC looks like an Asian cinema cliche. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Valonqar

[clockwork]

8 hours ago, Lion Roar said:

This was never going to happen. Even this movie is better than BP it would never bring out Asian Americans like BP did, simply because Asians have plenty of all Asian media to choose from constantly coming out of Asia.

You make a great point, even though I'm excited for Shang Chi I don't get the feeling that it will be as significant for Asians as Black Panther was for the black community. A big budget sci-fi blockbuster featuring a predominately black cast is not something that happens often whereas there have been plenty of martial arts movies featuring predominately Asian casts for a while now.

[Menor the Destroyer]

This will play as a normal MCU movie. There may be a slight boost among younger Asian-Americans with Simu Liu's social media presence but it will be negligible in BO. 

[imbruglia]

Asian American showed up for (basic) Crazy Rich Asian. which also has no Big name lead.

Also Representation/diversity take sell to non-Asian liberal audience too. (especially white)

 

But yeah.. I'm not sure if there is enough hype/discussion in that sense due to covid.

 

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

Asian American showed up for (basic) Crazy Rich Asian. which also has no Big name lead.

Also Representation/diversity take sell to non-Asian liberal audience too. (especially white)

 

But yeah.. I'm not sure if there is enough hype/discussion in that sense due to covid.

 

more like In the Heights than Crazy Rich Asian in box office.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

more like In the Heights than Crazy Rich Asian in box office.

OW will be double ITH total.

[AJG]

36 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

Asian American showed up for (basic) Crazy Rich Asian. which also has no Big name lead.

Also Representation/diversity take sell to non-Asian liberal audience too. (especially white)

 

But yeah.. I'm not sure if there is enough hype/discussion in that sense due to covid.

 

 

Crazy Rich Asians is AMERICAN. It's an American story, about an American perspective, with American humour. The film is tied explicitly to American culture. The movie could've only been made in the west. There's romcoms with Asian leads but one that revolves around the Asian American experience rarely happens. 

 

Shang-Chi is an action film. Even though it's American, action films are not as culturally specific as a drama or comedy, and the cultural ties in them aren't that important to the overall experience as they are to other slower paced genres. Big budget, well produced, action blockbusters featuring Asian leads are released every other month. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by AJG

[TigerPaw]

23 minutes ago, Menor said:

OW will be double ITH total.

You are expecting a 60m OW?

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

You are expecting a 60m OW?

Yeah, based on trailer performance 50-60. Once PS starts we'll see where it lands.

[RRA]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

You are expecting a 60m OW?

Dang. If some people threw a parade for JC’s opening, imagine the reaction if this somehow does that…

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, RRA said:

Dang. If some people threw a parade for JC’s opening, imagine the reaction if this somehow does that…

We will see the social media reactions from the premiere coming Monday and some are suspecting that PA announcement may be part of this Thursday’s earnings call. 
 

These are all important factors for the OW; i personally I think it will not be on PA but we will see

 

[SpiderByte]

If any movies going to PA during the call tomorrow it won't be this. Jungle Cruise was announced it would be Premier Access two months in advance, there's zero way they're going to do it with just two weeks notice. Not happening.

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

If any movies going to PA during the call tomorrow it won't be this. Jungle Cruise was announced it would be Premier Access two months in advance, there's zero way they're going to do it with just two weeks notice. Not happening.

 

This is getting exciting. Disney's Investor Call tomorrow might be the event of the season at this rate. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

We will see the social media reactions from the premiere coming Monday and some are suspecting that PA announcement may be part of this Thursday’s earnings call. 
 

These are all important factors for the OW; i personally I think it will not be on PA but we will see

 

Social media reactions will tell us very little imo unless the movie is really trash or really amazing (both of which are unlikely to me). But presales will have started on Monday and those will tell us quite a bit. I also think it won't be on PA, if it is my prediction would definitely drop. 

[Maggie]

The fact that tickets are still not on sale makes me think this could possibly be a hybrid release. They are probably waiting til tomorrow to announce